TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13053415
Played Sep 1Finished
Lukasz Jarocki
Home
1.70
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
711118119116––
Dawid Kosmal
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:41 and never touched — 64.6% is still 64.6%
Graded at full timeLukasz Jarocki to win
64.6%
64.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
74 points played in total.
Set by set
711118119116––
H2H Lukasz Jarocki 7–1 Dawid Kosmal Dawid Kosmal has won 1 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:41What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.70 (54%)
Jarocki
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-1 in 8
Jarocki
Correct
gap of 6 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jarocki 1708 vs Kosmal 1671
Jarocki
Correct
both rated, 37 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jarocki 40% vs Kosmal 80%
Kosmal
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jarocki 40% vs Kosmal 70%
Kosmal
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jarocki -1 · Kosmal +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Jarocki) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kosmal form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJarocki 1.70 / Kosmal 2.00
Signal prob.57% / 44%
Edge (Jarocki)+2.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13053415
Jarocki1.70
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 160 of 263
Up 2–0, closes it93% 92 of 99
Up 1–0, closes it78% 120 of 153
Kosmal2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 63 of 166
Down 0–1, comes back23% 22 of 94
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeJarocki7wins
AwayKosmal1wins
1 of 8 to a deciderJarocki leads 7–1, and 1 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJarocki83.3%5 of 6
AwayKosmaln = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jarocki6Kosmal2n = 8Jarocki took 6 of 8
S2Jarocki7Kosmal1n = 8Jarocki took 7 of 8
S3Jarocki6Kosmal2n = 8Jarocki took 6 of 8
S4Jarocki4Kosmal1n = 5Jarocki took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home338%
3–1Four sets, home450%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricJarockiKosmalJ − KBasisWins71+6in 8 meetingsFirst set62+4of 8Avg pointsper match38.628.9+9.7per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJarockiKosmalBasisWin rate · lifetime842 / 1504 vs 350 / 64256%54.5%842 / 1504 vs 350 / 642Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JarockiJarocki 1.70/Kosmal 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.5%
Jarocki · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Jarocki won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WAug 31 · 11:45L. Jarocki—11116113D. Kosmal—951191
LApr 21 · 20:10L. Jarocki—11711962D. Kosmal—611411113
WMar 18 · 12:05L. Jarocki—61111113D. Kosmal—118931
WFeb 6 · 10:05L. Jarocki—1111113D. Kosmal—5560
WNov 10 · 18:25L. Jarocki—1111113D. Kosmal—3570
WNov 10 · 14:35L. Jarocki—1111143D. Kosmal—78120
WOct 27 · 18:25L. Jarocki—81112113D. Kosmal—1161041
WOct 26 · 21:15L. Jarocki—12119113D. Kosmal—1091141
L. Jarocki10
WSep 1 · 19:40K. Strowski2.0091171152L. Jarocki1.73117119113WSep 1 · 18:50A. Spychala2.207680L. Jarocki1.611111113LSep 1 · 18:05L. Jarocki1.7361370M. Olbrycht2.001115113WSep 1 · 16:30L. Jarocki1.83881111113M. Sklensky1.8311115492LSep 1 · 15:45K. Glazowski1.73118167113L. Jarocki2.00911141162WSep 1 · 14:35L. Jarocki1.911115118113D. Prokopcov1.8061761162WSep 1 · 13:00L. Jarocki1.551211113K. Wisniewski2.3010770LSep 1 · 11:45L. Jarocki1.90811981M. Sklensky1.8011511113LSep 1 · 10:05L. Jarocki1.808950A. Spychala1.851111113LAug 31 · 20:30M. Sklensky1.83114415133L. Jarocki1.8311121113112
D. Kosmal10
WSep 1 · 14:15M. Sklensky1.908780D. Kosmal1.801111113LSep 1 · 13:25D. Prokopcov1.851111113D. Kosmal1.854660LSep 1 · 11:20A. Spychala2.00116118113D. Kosmal1.7171171162LSep 1 · 10:30K. Wisniewski2.20611117113D. Kosmal1.5811661182WSep 1 · 07:40D. Kosmal1.371111113G. Kesik2.758780WSep 1 · 06:25D. Kosmal1.301113113M. Minda3.2091160LSep 1 · 05:15D. Kosmal1.52118841J. Zochniak2.3061111113WSep 1 · 04:00S. Brud3.40114981D. Kosmal1.2671111113WSep 1 · 03:20D. Kosmal1.3214117113A. Sobel3.051291151LAug 31 · 14:35D. Kosmal2.1091181292K. Glazowski1.601191110113
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