TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13053410
Played Sep 1Finished
Lukasz Jarocki
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
6111315711––––
Michal Olbrycht
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:40 and never touched — 56.7% is still 56.7%
Graded at full timeLukasz Jarocki to win
56.7%
56.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingLukasz Jarocki above · Michal Olbrycht below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 13-15
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 63 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Lukasz Jarocki at 56.7%
63 points played in total.
H2H Lukasz Jarocki 31–17 Michal Olbrycht Michal Olbrycht has won 17 of their 48 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:40What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Jarocki
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
31-17 in 48
Jarocki
Wrong
gap of 14 in 48, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jarocki 1720 vs Olbrycht 1647
Jarocki
Wrong
both rated, 72 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jarocki 60% vs Olbrycht 40%
Jarocki
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jarocki 60% vs Olbrycht 40%
Jarocki
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jarocki +1 · Olbrycht -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Jarocki) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJarocki 1.73 / Olbrycht 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Jarocki)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13053410
Jarocki1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 160 of 263
Up 2–0, closes it93% 92 of 99
Up 1–0, closes it78% 120 of 153
Olbrycht2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 94 of 248
Down 0–1, comes back19% 28 of 148
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 73
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJarocki6wins
AwayOlbrycht4wins
Jarocki leads 6–4.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJarocki85.7%6 of 7
AwayOlbrycht100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jarocki7Olbrycht3n = 10Jarocki took 7 of 10
S2Jarocki7Olbrycht3n = 10Jarocki took 7 of 10
S3Jarocki6Olbrycht4n = 10Jarocki took 6 of 10
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home660%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricJarockiOlbrychtJ − OBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match32.526.2+6.3per matchSweeps62+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJarockiOlbrychtBasisWin rate · lifetime846 / 1511 vs 354 / 75656%46.8%846 / 1511 vs 354 / 756Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JarockiJarocki 1.73/Olbrycht 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.3%
Jarocki · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Olbrycht won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WMay 8 · 09:30L. Jarocki—1111113M. Olbrycht—6860
WApr 7 · 20:10L. Jarocki—1111113M. Olbrycht—4380
WMar 29 · 16:00L. Jarocki—1111123M. Olbrycht—65100
LMar 28 · 22:10L. Jarocki—7119101M. Olbrycht—11711123
LMar 18 · 17:20L. Jarocki—9880M. Olbrycht—1111113
WMar 16 · 16:05L. Jarocki—1111113M. Olbrycht—4690
LJan 22 · 19:15L. Jarocki—1261281M. Olbrycht—101114113
WJan 21 · 17:40L. Jarocki—1111113M. Olbrycht—2770
LJan 20 · 16:05L. Jarocki—8890M. Olbrycht—1111113
WDec 17 · 16:30L. Jarocki—1211113M. Olbrycht—10530
L. Jarocki10
WSep 1 · 19:40K. Strowski2.0091171152L. Jarocki1.73117119113WSep 1 · 18:50A. Spychala2.207680L. Jarocki1.611111113WSep 1 · 16:30L. Jarocki1.83881111113M. Sklensky1.8311115492LSep 1 · 15:45K. Glazowski1.73118167113L. Jarocki2.00911141162WSep 1 · 14:35L. Jarocki1.911115118113D. Prokopcov1.8061761162WSep 1 · 13:00L. Jarocki1.551211113K. Wisniewski2.3010770LSep 1 · 11:45L. Jarocki1.90811981M. Sklensky1.8011511113LSep 1 · 10:05L. Jarocki1.808950A. Spychala1.851111113WSep 1 · 09:00L. Jarocki1.7071111113D. Kosmal2.00118961LAug 31 · 20:30M. Sklensky1.83114415133L. Jarocki1.8311121113112
M. Olbrycht10
WSep 3 · 24:35M. Rutkowski1.83911861M. Olbrycht1.8311711113LSep 2 · 22:55J. Kuzmicz1.3612119113M. Olbrycht3.001091131WSep 2 · 22:10L. Pietraszko2.108330M. Olbrycht1.671111113WSep 2 · 21:25J. Chmielowski2.20118871M. Olbrycht1.6171111113WSep 2 · 20:05M. Olbrycht1.83611116113K. Kapik1.8311981182LSep 2 · 18:30A. Spychala1.73119411113M. Olbrycht2.0031111772LSep 2 · 17:40L. Pietraszko2.001211113M. Olbrycht1.7310660LSep 2 · 16:55M. Olbrycht1.73912111162J. Chmielowski2.00111498113WSep 2 · 15:45M. Olbrycht1.7391211113J. Witkowski2.001110471LSep 2 · 24:10M. Olbrycht2.00128781M. Rutkowski1.73101111113
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