TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13059490
Played Sep 2Finished
Lukasz Pietraszko
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1210116116––––
Michal Olbrycht
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:33 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukasz Pietraszko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukasz Pietraszko above · Michal Olbrycht below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 56 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Lukasz Pietraszko at 54.0%
56 points played in total.
H2H Lukasz Pietraszko 3–5 Michal Olbrycht Lukasz Pietraszko has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:33What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Olbrycht
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-5 in 8
Olbrycht
Wrong
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pietraszko 1606 vs Olbrycht 1643
Olbrycht
Wrong
both rated, 37 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pietraszko 60% vs Olbrycht 40%
Pietraszko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pietraszko 80% vs Olbrycht 50%
Pietraszko
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pietraszko -2 · Olbrycht -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Olbrycht) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Olbrycht form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPietraszko 2.00 / Olbrycht 1.73
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Olbrycht)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13059490
Pietraszko2.00
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog38% won 95 of 252
Down 0–1, comes back20% 28 of 143
Down 0–2, comes back9% 8 of 88
Olbrycht1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite61% won 94 of 155
Up 2–0, closes it95% 39 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it83% 70 of 84
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomePietraszko3wins
AwayOlbrycht5wins
6 of 8 to a deciderOlbrycht leads 5–3, and 6 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePietraszkon = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayOlbrycht66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pietraszko2Olbrycht6n = 8Olbrycht took 6 of 8
S2Pietraszko2Olbrycht6n = 8Olbrycht took 6 of 8
S3Pietraszko5Olbrycht3n = 8Pietraszko took 5 of 8
S4Pietraszko5Olbrycht3n = 8Pietraszko took 5 of 8
S5Pietraszko3Olbrycht3n = 6split evenly
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home338%
2–3Decider, away338%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricPietraszkoOlbrychtP − OBasisWins35−2in 8 meetingsFirst set26−4of 8Avg pointsper match43.246.0−2.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPietraszkoOlbrychtBasisWin rate · lifetime422 / 839 vs 359 / 76350.3%47.1%422 / 839 vs 359 / 763Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OlbrychtPietraszko 2.00/Olbrycht 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.9%
Olbrycht · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Pietraszko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WAug 19 · 16:55L. Pietraszko—145911113M. Olbrycht—121111642
LAug 12 · 23:20L. Pietraszko—481191M. Olbrycht—11117113
WAug 12 · 20:30L. Pietraszko—491111113M. Olbrycht—11115952
WJul 23 · 16:55L. Pietraszko—751212163M. Olbrycht—11111010142
LApr 20 · 06:10L. Pietraszko—1111851M. Olbrycht—91311113
LFeb 24 · 07:35L. Pietraszko—61111972M. Olbrycht—113911113
LFeb 3 · 11:20L. Pietraszko—831511112M. Olbrycht—1111138133
LJan 6 · 15:45L. Pietraszko—71161142M. Olbrycht—114115113
L. Pietraszko10
WSep 7 · 24:35A. Wos2.201121111102L. Pietraszko1.61811613123LSep 6 · 22:55D. Jadam1.67115811113L. Pietraszko2.1091111792WSep 6 · 22:10F. Mlynarski1.501156101L. Pietraszko2.5071111123WSep 6 · 21:25K. Kapik1.671091181L. Pietraszko2.1012119113LSep 6 · 20:05L. Pietraszko3.401110961J. Kuzmicz1.3091211113WSep 6 · 18:30D. Jadam1.67105120L. Pietraszko2.101211143WSep 6 · 17:40F. Mlynarski1.4491311962L. Pietraszko2.631111511113WSep 6 · 16:55L. Pietraszko1.831111123K. Kapik1.8362100WSep 6 · 15:45L. Pietraszko1.73961111113J. Zochniak2.0011119562LSep 2 · 23:20J. Chmielowski1.67117911153L. Pietraszko2.10811116132
M. Olbrycht10
WSep 3 · 24:35M. Rutkowski1.83911861M. Olbrycht1.8311711113LSep 2 · 22:55J. Kuzmicz1.3612119113M. Olbrycht3.001091131WSep 2 · 22:10L. Pietraszko2.108330M. Olbrycht1.671111113WSep 2 · 21:25J. Chmielowski2.20118871M. Olbrycht1.6171111113WSep 2 · 20:05M. Olbrycht1.83611116113K. Kapik1.8311981182LSep 2 · 18:30A. Spychala1.73119411113M. Olbrycht2.0031111772LSep 2 · 16:55M. Olbrycht1.73912111162J. Chmielowski2.00111498113WSep 2 · 15:45M. Olbrycht1.7391211113J. Witkowski2.001110471LSep 2 · 24:10M. Olbrycht2.00128781M. Rutkowski1.73101111113WSep 1 · 23:20M. Olbrycht1.83111288113K. Kapik1.83710111152
Upcoming Matches
L. Pietraszko1 of 1 neutral
M. Olbrycht
Nothing scheduled
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