TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13059488
Played Sep 2Finished
Jakub Chmielowski
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
117811811711––
Michal Olbrycht
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:33 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Olbrycht to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Chmielowski above · Michal Olbrycht below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 74 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Michal Olbrycht at 54.0%
74 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Chmielowski 4–2 Michal Olbrycht Michal Olbrycht has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:33What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Olbrycht
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Chmielowski
Wrong
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chmielowski 1562 vs Olbrycht 1641
Olbrycht
Correct
both rated, 79 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chmielowski 60% vs Olbrycht 40%
Chmielowski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chmielowski 40% vs Olbrycht 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chmielowski +1 · Olbrycht +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Olbrycht) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Olbrycht form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChmielowski 2.20 / Olbrycht 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Olbrycht)+0.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13059488
Chmielowski2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog38% won 70 of 186
Down 0–1, comes back22% 24 of 110
Down 0–2, comes back8% 5 of 63
Olbrycht1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 94 of 155
Up 2–0, closes it95% 39 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it83% 70 of 84
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeChmielowski4wins
AwayOlbrycht2wins
4 of 6 to a deciderChmielowski leads 4–2, and 4 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChmielowski100%4 of 4
AwayOlbrychtn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chmielowski4Olbrycht2n = 6Chmielowski took 4 of 6
S2Chmielowski3Olbrycht3n = 6split evenly
S3Chmielowski3Olbrycht3n = 6split evenly
S4Chmielowski2Olbrycht4n = 6Olbrycht took 4 of 6
S5Chmielowski3Olbrycht1n = 4Chmielowski took 3 of 4
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home350%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricChmielowskiOlbrychtC − OBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match47.342.3+5.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChmielowskiOlbrychtBasisWin rate · lifetime346 / 710 vs 358 / 76348.7%46.9%346 / 710 vs 358 / 763Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.537.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OlbrychtChmielowski 2.20/Olbrycht 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.9%
Olbrycht · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Olbrycht won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 2 · 16:55J. Chmielowski—111498113M. Olbrycht—912111162
WAug 11 · 21:25J. Chmielowski—1112118113M. Olbrycht—41471132
LAug 11 · 16:55J. Chmielowski—1011981M. Olbrycht—12811113
WFeb 22 · 24:30J. Chmielowski—119711113M. Olbrycht—91111682
WFeb 21 · 22:35J. Chmielowski—111111113M. Olbrycht—613561
LJul 15 · 20:35J. Chmielowski—81111982M. Olbrycht—119711113
J. Chmielowski10
WSep 3 · 23:20J. Kuzmicz1.6161161182J. Chmielowski2.20118117113WSep 3 · 22:35M. Kolek1.8311814992J. Chmielowski1.836111211113WSep 3 · 22:10J. Chmielowski2.50115911153M. Rutkowski1.50911115132WSep 3 · 21:00J. Glanowski2.7511631152J. Chmielowski1.40811118113WSep 3 · 20:30P. Klos1.1788111192J. Chmielowski4.50111147113LSep 3 · 19:15J. Chmielowski4.007370M. Benes1.221111113LSep 3 · 18:05A. Daniel1.53613312113J. Chmielowski2.381111111022LSep 3 · 16:55J. Witkowski1.80911611113J. Chmielowski1.9111811472LSep 3 · 15:25J. Braun1.221111113J. Chmielowski4.004520LSep 3 · 24:10J. Chmielowski2.381611971J. Kuzmicz1.5318611113
M. Olbrycht10
WSep 3 · 24:35M. Rutkowski1.83911861M. Olbrycht1.8311711113LSep 2 · 22:55J. Kuzmicz1.3612119113M. Olbrycht3.001091131WSep 2 · 22:10L. Pietraszko2.108330M. Olbrycht1.671111113WSep 2 · 20:05M. Olbrycht1.83611116113K. Kapik1.8311981182LSep 2 · 18:30A. Spychala1.73119411113M. Olbrycht2.0031111772LSep 2 · 17:40L. Pietraszko2.001211113M. Olbrycht1.7310660LSep 2 · 16:55M. Olbrycht1.73912111162J. Chmielowski2.00111498113WSep 2 · 15:45M. Olbrycht1.7391211113J. Witkowski2.001110471LSep 2 · 24:10M. Olbrycht2.00128781M. Rutkowski1.73101111113WSep 1 · 23:20M. Olbrycht1.83111288113K. Kapik1.83710111152
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