TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13065667
Played Sep 3Finished
Josef Braun
Home
1.22
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
114115112––––
Jakub Chmielowski
Away
4.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:29 and never touched — 69.4% is still 69.4%
Graded at full timeJosef Braun to win
69.4%
69.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJosef Braun above · Jakub Chmielowski below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-2
Point 44 set 3, 11-2 — our read held Josef Braun at 69.4%
44 points played in total.
H2H Josef Braun 5–1 Jakub Chmielowski Jakub Chmielowski has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:29What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.22 (77%)
Braun
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-1 in 6
Braun
Correct
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Braun 1789 vs Chmielowski 1570
Braun
Correct
both rated, 219 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Braun 80% vs Chmielowski 60%
Braun
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Braun 70% vs Chmielowski 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Braun +1 · Chmielowski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 81% — Strong (leans Braun) · live re-read · sealed at 69% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chmielowski form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (25%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBraun 1.22 / Chmielowski 4.00
Signal prob.81% / 19%
Edge (Braun)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13065667
Braun1.22
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 138 of 237
Up 2–0, closes it89% 74 of 83
Up 1–0, closes it74% 104 of 141
Chmielowski4.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog38% won 72 of 190
Down 0–1, comes back22% 25 of 112
Down 0–2, comes back8% 5 of 63
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeBraun5wins
AwayChmielowski1wins
Braun leads 5–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBraun100%5 of 5
AwayChmielowskin = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Braun5Chmielowski1n = 6Braun took 5 of 6
S2Braun5Chmielowski1n = 6Braun took 5 of 6
S3Braun5Chmielowski1n = 6Braun took 5 of 6
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home467%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricBraunChmielowskiB − CBasisWins51+4in 6 meetingsFirst set51+4of 6Avg pointsper match35.027.5+7.5per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBraunChmielowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime496 / 950 vs 348 / 71352.2%48.8%496 / 950 vs 348 / 713Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.939.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BraunBraun 1.22/Chmielowski 4.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
81%
Braun · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Braun won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WJun 12 · 13:10J. Braun—1112113J. Chmielowski—81080
WJun 12 · 05:00J. Braun—1111113J. Chmielowski—8750
WFeb 20 · 20:00J. Braun—1111113J. Chmielowski—9670
WJan 25 · 18:30J. Braun—1111153J. Chmielowski—27130
LDec 14 · 18:05J. Braun—411961J. Chmielowski—11811103
WDec 14 · 13:00J. Braun—11912113J. Chmielowski—7111071
J. Braun10
LSep 6 · 14:35S. Kolasa1.7311811113J. Braun2.00711751LSep 6 · 13:20J. Braun1.404111271M. Domin2.7511514113WSep 6 · 12:05M. Nowalinski2.50115991J. Braun1.5021111113LSep 6 · 10:50S. Sporek2.75811711113J. Braun1.4011911562WSep 6 · 09:20G. Adamiak2.75911961J. Braun1.4011911113WSep 6 · 08:05J. Braun1.36111111113G. Poliniewicz3.00139741LSep 6 · 06:30M. Domin2.75111113113J. Braun1.405131161LSep 6 · 05:40S. Sporek2.751711102113J. Braun1.40157121192WSep 6 · 04:55J. Braun1.5011128113M. Nowalinski2.504101161WSep 6 · 03:45J. Braun2.0014911113S. Kolasa1.731211581
J. Chmielowski10
WSep 3 · 23:20J. Kuzmicz1.6161161182J. Chmielowski2.20118117113WSep 3 · 22:35M. Kolek1.8311814992J. Chmielowski1.836111211113WSep 3 · 22:10J. Chmielowski2.50115911153M. Rutkowski1.50911115132WSep 3 · 21:00J. Glanowski2.7511631152J. Chmielowski1.40811118113WSep 3 · 20:30P. Klos1.1788111192J. Chmielowski4.50111147113LSep 3 · 19:15J. Chmielowski4.007370M. Benes1.221111113LSep 3 · 18:05A. Daniel1.53613312113J. Chmielowski2.381111111022LSep 3 · 16:55J. Witkowski1.80911611113J. Chmielowski1.9111811472LSep 3 · 24:10J. Chmielowski2.381611971J. Kuzmicz1.5318611113WSep 2 · 23:20J. Chmielowski1.67117911153L. Pietraszko2.10811116132
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