TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13082452
Played Sep 6Finished
Josef Braun
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1141210811116––
Maciej Nowalinski
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:12 and never touched — 66.0% is still 66.0%
Graded at full timeJosef Braun to win
66.0%
66.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJosef Braun above · Maciej Nowalinski below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 73 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Josef Braun at 66.0%
73 points played in total.
H2H Josef Braun 29–10 Maciej Nowalinski Maciej Nowalinski has won 10 of their 39 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:12What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Braun
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
29-10 in 39
Braun
Correct
gap of 19 in 39, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Braun 1836 vs Nowalinski 1742
Braun
Correct
both rated, 94 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Braun 60% vs Nowalinski 40%
Braun
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Braun 70% vs Nowalinski 40%
Braun
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Braun +2 · Nowalinski -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Braun)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBraun 1.50 / Nowalinski 2.50
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Braun)+3.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13082452
Braun1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 143 of 244
Up 2–0, closes it90% 78 of 87
Up 1–0, closes it75% 109 of 146
Nowalinski2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog38% won 132 of 352
Down 0–1, comes back19% 38 of 204
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 92
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBraun9wins
AwayNowalinski1wins
1 of 10 to a deciderBraun leads 9–1, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBraun100%8 of 8
AwayNowalinskin = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Braun8Nowalinski2n = 10Braun took 8 of 10
S2Braun8Nowalinski2n = 10Braun took 8 of 10
S3Braun7Nowalinski3n = 10Braun took 7 of 10
S4Braun4Nowalinski2n = 6Braun took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBraunNowalinskiB − NBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match39.227.9+11.3per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBraunNowalinskiBasisWin rate · lifetime500 / 956 vs 837 / 173852.3%48.2%500 / 956 vs 837 / 1738Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BraunBraun 1.50/Nowalinski 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66%
Braun · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Braun won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 13 · 11:20J. Braun—1111113M. Nowalinski—8780
WJul 10 · 10:05J. Braun—1111113M. Nowalinski—7770
WJun 23 · 06:30J. Braun—118118123M. Nowalinski—511311102
WJun 6 · 14:05J. Braun—1111113M. Nowalinski—8580
WMay 27 · 11:55J. Braun—111112113M. Nowalinski—581461
LMay 27 · 08:20J. Braun—1311871M. Nowalinski—15911113
WMay 24 · 08:25J. Braun—111011113M. Nowalinski—712271
WMay 19 · 03:30J. Braun—81111113M. Nowalinski—114741
WMay 17 · 12:50J. Braun—1111113M. Nowalinski—9260
WMay 17 · 05:50J. Braun—11119113M. Nowalinski—451141
J. Braun10
LSep 6 · 14:35S. Kolasa1.7311811113J. Braun2.00711751LSep 6 · 13:20J. Braun1.404111271M. Domin2.7511514113WSep 6 · 12:05M. Nowalinski2.50115991J. Braun1.5021111113LSep 6 · 10:50S. Sporek2.75811711113J. Braun1.4011911562WSep 6 · 09:20G. Adamiak2.75911961J. Braun1.4011911113WSep 6 · 08:05J. Braun1.36111111113G. Poliniewicz3.00139741LSep 6 · 06:30M. Domin2.75111113113J. Braun1.405131161LSep 6 · 05:40S. Sporek2.751711102113J. Braun1.40157121192WSep 6 · 03:45J. Braun2.0014911113S. Kolasa1.731211581WSep 3 · 19:40J. Braun1.731311113A. Daniel2.0011750
M. Nowalinski10
LSep 6 · 13:45G. Adamiak1.83113611113M. Nowalinski1.8361111662LSep 6 · 12:55S. Kolasa1.6111811113M. Nowalinski2.20811761LSep 6 · 12:05M. Nowalinski2.50115991J. Braun1.5021111113WSep 6 · 10:25M. Nowalinski1.5711511113M. Domin2.25911791LSep 6 · 09:40S. Sporek1.9111111110113M. Nowalinski1.8079131282WSep 6 · 08:30S. Sporek1.9141111672M. Nowalinski1.80116711113LSep 6 · 07:20M. Nowalinski1.508138101G. Poliniewicz2.50111111123WSep 6 · 06:05S. Kolasa1.73101151182M. Nowalinski2.00126118113LSep 6 · 03:25M. Domin2.2512511113M. Nowalinski1.571011841LSep 5 · 14:10M. Nowalinski2.0041111992G. Adamiak1.73118611113
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