TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13082374
Played Sep 6Finished
Maciej Nowalinski
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
81113118111012––
Grzegorz Poliniewicz
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:48 and never touched — 63.7% is still 63.7%
Graded at full timeMaciej Nowalinski to win
63.7%
63.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMaciej Nowalinski above · Grzegorz Poliniewicz below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 84 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Maciej Nowalinski at 63.7%
84 points played in total.
H2H Maciej Nowalinski 39–20 Grzegorz Poliniewicz Grzegorz Poliniewicz has won 20 of their 59 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:48What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Nowalinski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
39-20 in 59
Nowalinski
Wrong
gap of 19 in 59, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nowalinski 1727 vs Poliniewicz 1693
Nowalinski
Wrong
both rated, 34 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nowalinski 40% vs Poliniewicz 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nowalinski 40% vs Poliniewicz 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Nowalinski +1 · Poliniewicz +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Nowalinski)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nowalinski form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNowalinski 1.50 / Poliniewicz 2.50
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Nowalinski)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13082374
Nowalinski1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite61% won 193 of 319
Up 2–0, closes it100% 64 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it84% 139 of 166
Poliniewicz2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog38% won 142 of 376
Down 0–1, comes back22% 46 of 212
Down 0–2, comes back8% 10 of 129
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNowalinski5wins
AwayPoliniewicz5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNowalinski75%3 of 4
AwayPoliniewicz66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nowalinski4Poliniewicz6n = 10Poliniewicz took 6 of 10
S2Nowalinski5Poliniewicz5n = 10split evenly
S3Nowalinski5Poliniewicz5n = 10split evenly
S4Nowalinski6Poliniewicz3n = 9Nowalinski took 6 of 9
S5Nowalinski2Poliniewicz3n = 5Poliniewicz took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricNowalinskiPoliniewiczN − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.742.9−1.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNowalinskiPoliniewiczBasisWin rate · lifetime833 / 1733 vs 1250 / 211048.1%59.2%833 / 1733 vs 1250 / 2110Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NowalinskiNowalinski 1.50/Poliniewicz 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.7%
Nowalinski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Poliniewicz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 07:20M. Nowalinski—8138101G. Poliniewicz—111111123
LJul 22 · 14:15M. Nowalinski—11841172G. Poliniewicz—811116113
WJul 20 · 03:25M. Nowalinski—711114113G. Poliniewicz—11581182
WJul 17 · 06:55M. Nowalinski—11611193G. Poliniewicz—9119171
LJul 13 · 06:25M. Nowalinski—71111892G. Poliniewicz—116711113
WJul 13 · 04:00M. Nowalinski—11512113G. Poliniewicz—4111081
WJul 10 · 13:50M. Nowalinski—771111133G. Poliniewicz—111197112
WJul 2 · 09:45M. Nowalinski—11117113G. Poliniewicz—891191
LJul 1 · 09:00M. Nowalinski—1011101192G. Poliniewicz—129126113
LJun 29 · 04:30M. Nowalinski—7770G. Poliniewicz—1111113
M. Nowalinski10
LSep 6 · 13:45G. Adamiak1.83113611113M. Nowalinski1.8361111662LSep 6 · 12:55S. Kolasa1.6111811113M. Nowalinski2.20811761LSep 6 · 12:05M. Nowalinski2.50115991J. Braun1.5021111113WSep 6 · 10:25M. Nowalinski1.5711511113M. Domin2.25911791LSep 6 · 09:40S. Sporek1.9111111110113M. Nowalinski1.8079131282WSep 6 · 08:30S. Sporek1.9141111672M. Nowalinski1.80116711113WSep 6 · 06:05S. Kolasa1.73101151182M. Nowalinski2.00126118113LSep 6 · 04:55J. Braun1.5011128113M. Nowalinski2.504101161LSep 6 · 03:25M. Domin2.2512511113M. Nowalinski1.571011841LSep 5 · 14:10M. Nowalinski2.0041111992G. Adamiak1.73118611113
G. Poliniewicz10
LSep 7 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.141111510113G. Poliniewicz5.0079111282LSep 7 · 04:55P. David1.081111113G. Poliniewicz7.003690LSep 7 · 03:25J. Kosowski1.281211133G. Poliniewicz3.50107110LSep 6 · 08:05J. Braun1.36111111113G. Poliniewicz3.00139741WSep 6 · 05:15M. Domin1.5711115192G. Poliniewicz2.25871111113LSep 6 · 04:30S. Kolasa1.331111113G. Poliniewicz3.255680LSep 6 · 03:00S. Sporek1.5711116133G. Poliniewicz2.259611111WSep 4 · 13:50J. Zochniak3.25114481G. Poliniewicz1.2761111113LSep 4 · 13:00A. Daniel1.3511711113G. Poliniewicz2.85611591LSep 4 · 12:10G. Poliniewicz2.357660S. Dosz1.531111113
Upcoming Matches
M. Nowalinski
Nothing scheduled
G. Poliniewicz1 of 7 neutral
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