TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13082212
Played Sep 6Finished
Maciej Domin
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
118117511111911
Grzegorz Poliniewicz
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:09 and never touched — 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeMaciej Domin to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMaciej Domin above · Grzegorz Poliniewicz below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 1-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 85 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Maciej Domin at 59.7%
85 points played in total.
H2H Maciej Domin 17–15 Grzegorz Poliniewicz Grzegorz Poliniewicz has won 15 of their 32 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:09What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Domin
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-15 in 32
Domin
Wrong
gap of 2 in 32, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Domin 1782 vs Poliniewicz 1694
Domin
Wrong
both rated, 88 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Domin 80% vs Poliniewicz 20%
Domin
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Domin 50% vs Poliniewicz 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Domin +2 · Poliniewicz -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Domin) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Poliniewicz form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDomin 1.57 / Poliniewicz 2.25
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Domin)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13082212
Domin1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite64% won 113 of 177
Up 2–0, closes it94% 47 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it79% 71 of 90
Poliniewicz2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog38% won 140 of 371
Down 0–1, comes back22% 45 of 209
Down 0–2, comes back7% 9 of 126
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDomin5wins
AwayPoliniewicz5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDomin100%5 of 5
AwayPoliniewicz100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Domin5Poliniewicz5n = 10split evenly
S2Domin4Poliniewicz6n = 10Poliniewicz took 6 of 10
S3Domin8Poliniewicz2n = 10Domin took 8 of 10
S4Domin2Poliniewicz5n = 7Poliniewicz took 5 of 7
S5Domin2Poliniewicz2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDominPoliniewiczD − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.537.9+1.6per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDominPoliniewiczBasisWin rate · lifetime489 / 937 vs 1249 / 210552.2%59.3%489 / 937 vs 1249 / 2105Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DominDomin 1.57/Poliniewicz 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.7%
Domin · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Poliniewicz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 27 · 13:50M. Domin—871181G. Poliniewicz—11117113
WAug 21 · 12:35M. Domin—1112113G. Poliniewicz—61030
LAug 13 · 10:30M. Domin—89111142G. Poliniewicz—111158113
WAug 12 · 09:20M. Domin—111111113G. Poliniewicz—513591
LAug 8 · 09:40M. Domin—491181G. Poliniewicz—11115113
WAug 8 · 07:20M. Domin—1111153G. Poliniewicz—76130
LJul 27 · 11:40M. Domin—81111682G. Poliniewicz—119711113
LApr 30 · 09:30M. Domin—713100G. Poliniewicz—1115123
WApr 30 · 05:45M. Domin—111465113G. Poliniewicz—812111172
WApr 29 · 13:35M. Domin—1171110113G. Poliniewicz—81131282
M. Domin10
WSep 6 · 14:10S. Sporek1.8011911181M. Domin1.9171113203WSep 6 · 13:20J. Braun1.404111271M. Domin2.7511514113WSep 6 · 11:15G. Adamiak1.80971191M. Domin1.9111113113LSep 6 · 10:25M. Nowalinski1.5711511113M. Domin2.25911791LSep 6 · 09:00S. Kolasa1.44121169113M. Domin2.63106111162LSep 6 · 07:45M. Domin2.63710100S. Kolasa1.441112123WSep 6 · 06:30M. Domin2.75111113113J. Braun1.405131161WSep 6 · 04:10S. Sporek2.101178101M. Domin1.6781111123WSep 6 · 03:25M. Domin2.2512511113M. Nowalinski1.571011841LSep 5 · 14:35M. Domin1.73125581S. Sporek2.00101111113
G. Poliniewicz10
LSep 7 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.141111510113G. Poliniewicz5.0079111282LSep 7 · 04:55P. David1.081111113G. Poliniewicz7.003690LSep 7 · 03:25J. Kosowski1.281211133G. Poliniewicz3.50107110LSep 6 · 08:05J. Braun1.36111111113G. Poliniewicz3.00139741WSep 6 · 07:20M. Nowalinski1.508138101G. Poliniewicz2.50111111123LSep 6 · 04:30S. Kolasa1.331111113G. Poliniewicz3.255680LSep 6 · 03:00S. Sporek1.5711116133G. Poliniewicz2.259611111WSep 4 · 13:50J. Zochniak3.25114481G. Poliniewicz1.2761111113LSep 4 · 13:00A. Daniel1.3511711113G. Poliniewicz2.85611591LSep 4 · 12:10G. Poliniewicz2.357660S. Dosz1.531111113
Upcoming Matches
M. Domin
Nothing scheduled
G. Poliniewicz1 of 7 neutral
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