TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13077161
Played Sep 5Finished
Maciej Domin
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1210511511811––
Szymon Sporek
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:48 and never touched — 56.9% is still 56.9%
Graded at full timeMaciej Domin to win
56.9%
56.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMaciej Domin above · Szymon Sporek below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 73 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Maciej Domin at 56.9%
73 points played in total.
H2H Maciej Domin 31–33 Szymon Sporek Maciej Domin has won 31 of their 64 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:48What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Domin
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
31-33 in 64
Sporek
Correct
gap of 2 in 64, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Domin 1763 vs Sporek 1707
Domin
Wrong
both rated, 56 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Domin 40% vs Sporek 20%
Domin
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Domin 50% vs Sporek 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Domin +2 · Sporek -4
Sporek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Domin)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sporek form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDomin 1.73 / Sporek 2.00
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Domin)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13077161
Domin1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite64% won 112 of 175
Up 2–0, closes it94% 47 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it80% 71 of 89
Sporek2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 68 of 158
Down 0–1, comes back19% 14 of 73
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDomin5wins
AwaySporek5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDomin83.3%5 of 6
AwaySporek100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Domin6Sporek4n = 10Domin took 6 of 10
S2Domin1Sporek9n = 10Sporek took 9 of 10
S3Domin6Sporek4n = 10Domin took 6 of 10
S4Domin4Sporek5n = 9Sporek took 5 of 9
S5Domin4Sporek2n = 6Domin took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDominSporekD − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.744.6−4.9per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDominSporekBasisWin rate · lifetime487 / 934 vs 407 / 81952.1%49.7%487 / 934 vs 407 / 819Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.639.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DominDomin 1.73/Sporek 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.9%
Domin · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Sporek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 5 · 14:35M. Domin—125581S. Sporek—101111113
LSep 5 · 03:45M. Domin—68111382S. Sporek—1111811113
LJun 18 · 16:05M. Domin—66111192S. Sporek—111189113
WMay 29 · 14:00M. Domin—115515113S. Sporek—811111372
LApr 19 · 16:45M. Domin—5730S. Sporek—1111113
LApr 19 · 14:30M. Domin—941151S. Sporek—11118113
WApr 18 · 16:25M. Domin—117119113S. Sporek—91171162
WApr 17 · 19:25M. Domin—1210115113S. Sporek—101281152
WJan 11 · 18:05M. Domin—116125133S. Sporek—7111011112
WJan 10 · 20:30M. Domin—11128113S. Sporek—7101191
M. Domin10
WSep 6 · 14:10S. Sporek1.8011911181M. Domin1.9171113203WSep 6 · 13:20J. Braun1.404111271M. Domin2.7511514113WSep 6 · 11:15G. Adamiak1.80971191M. Domin1.9111113113LSep 6 · 10:25M. Nowalinski1.5711511113M. Domin2.25911791LSep 6 · 09:00S. Kolasa1.44121169113M. Domin2.63106111162LSep 6 · 07:45M. Domin2.63710100S. Kolasa1.441112123WSep 6 · 06:30M. Domin2.75111113113J. Braun1.405131161LSep 6 · 05:15M. Domin1.5711115192G. Poliniewicz2.25871111113WSep 6 · 04:10S. Sporek2.101178101M. Domin1.6781111123WSep 6 · 03:25M. Domin2.2512511113M. Nowalinski1.571011841
S. Sporek10
LSep 6 · 14:10S. Sporek1.8011911181M. Domin1.9171113203LSep 6 · 12:30G. Adamiak1.831111715113S. Sporek1.8387111752WSep 6 · 11:40S. Kolasa1.40121211592S. Sporek2.751014611113WSep 6 · 10:50S. Sporek2.75811711113J. Braun1.4011911562WSep 6 · 09:40S. Sporek1.9111111110113M. Nowalinski1.8079131282LSep 6 · 08:30S. Sporek1.9141111672M. Nowalinski1.80116711113LSep 6 · 06:55S. Sporek2.7591190S. Kolasa1.401113113WSep 6 · 05:40S. Sporek2.751711102113J. Braun1.40157121192LSep 6 · 04:10S. Sporek2.101178101M. Domin1.6781111123WSep 6 · 03:00S. Sporek1.5711116133G. Poliniewicz2.259611111
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