TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13082476
Played Sep 6Finished
Maciej Nowalinski
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119511117119––
Maciej Domin
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:19 and never touched — 62.4% is still 62.4%
Graded at full timeMaciej Nowalinski to win
62.4%
62.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMaciej Nowalinski above · Maciej Domin below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 74 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Maciej Nowalinski at 62.4%
74 points played in total.
H2H Maciej Nowalinski 10–2 Maciej Domin Maciej Domin has won 2 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:19What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Nowalinski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-2 in 12
Nowalinski
Correct
gap of 8 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nowalinski 1744 vs Domin 1745
Domin
Wrong
both rated, 0 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nowalinski 40% vs Domin 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nowalinski 40% vs Domin 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Nowalinski -1 · Domin -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Nowalinski) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nowalinski form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNowalinski 1.57 / Domin 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Nowalinski)+1.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13082476
Nowalinski1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 191 of 315
Up 2–0, closes it100% 64 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it84% 137 of 164
Domin2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 80 of 182
Down 0–1, comes back30% 33 of 111
Down 0–2, comes back11% 6 of 55
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNowalinski8wins
AwayDomin2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderNowalinski leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNowalinski80%4 of 5
AwayDomin20%1 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nowalinski5Domin5n = 10split evenly
S2Nowalinski8Domin2n = 10Nowalinski took 8 of 10
S3Nowalinski5Domin5n = 10split evenly
S4Nowalinski5Domin2n = 7Nowalinski took 5 of 7
S5Nowalinski3Domin1n = 4Nowalinski took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricNowalinskiDominN − DBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.037.5+4.5per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNowalinskiDominBasisWin rate · lifetime838 / 1740 vs 490 / 94148.2%52.1%838 / 1740 vs 490 / 941Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NowalinskiNowalinski 1.57/Domin 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.2%
Nowalinski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Nowalinski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJan 31 · 06:25M. Nowalinski—6111014113M. Domin—117121282
WJan 9 · 14:15M. Nowalinski—12111010123M. Domin—1071212102
WSep 25 · 15:30M. Nowalinski—1111113M. Domin—6650
LAug 22 · 19:25M. Nowalinski—6850M. Domin—1111113
WAug 9 · 19:50M. Nowalinski—8111112133M. Domin—1113410112
WJun 9 · 01:10M. Nowalinski—91111113M. Domin—118571
WJun 8 · 22:45M. Nowalinski—71111113M. Domin—114481
WJun 8 · 16:00M. Nowalinski—1211113M. Domin—10970
LMay 18 · 21:35M. Nowalinski—131191042M. Domin—1181112113
WMay 11 · 17:55M. Nowalinski—11119123M. Domin—8911101
M. Nowalinski10
LSep 6 · 13:45G. Adamiak1.83113611113M. Nowalinski1.8361111662LSep 6 · 12:55S. Kolasa1.6111811113M. Nowalinski2.20811761LSep 6 · 12:05M. Nowalinski2.50115991J. Braun1.5021111113LSep 6 · 09:40S. Sporek1.9111111110113M. Nowalinski1.8079131282WSep 6 · 08:30S. Sporek1.9141111672M. Nowalinski1.80116711113LSep 6 · 07:20M. Nowalinski1.508138101G. Poliniewicz2.50111111123WSep 6 · 06:05S. Kolasa1.73101151182M. Nowalinski2.00126118113LSep 6 · 04:55J. Braun1.5011128113M. Nowalinski2.504101161LSep 6 · 03:25M. Domin2.2512511113M. Nowalinski1.571011841LSep 5 · 14:10M. Nowalinski2.0041111992G. Adamiak1.73118611113
M. Domin10
WSep 6 · 14:10S. Sporek1.8011911181M. Domin1.9171113203WSep 6 · 13:20J. Braun1.404111271M. Domin2.7511514113WSep 6 · 11:15G. Adamiak1.80971191M. Domin1.9111113113LSep 6 · 09:00S. Kolasa1.44121169113M. Domin2.63106111162LSep 6 · 07:45M. Domin2.63710100S. Kolasa1.441112123WSep 6 · 06:30M. Domin2.75111113113J. Braun1.405131161LSep 6 · 05:15M. Domin1.5711115192G. Poliniewicz2.25871111113WSep 6 · 04:10S. Sporek2.101178101M. Domin1.6781111123WSep 6 · 03:25M. Domin2.2512511113M. Nowalinski1.571011841LSep 5 · 14:35M. Domin1.73125581S. Sporek2.00101111113
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