TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13082229
Played Sep 6Finished
Szymon Kolasa
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1012116511118811
Maciej Nowalinski
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:08 and never touched — 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeSzymon Kolasa to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongpick shipped
How it is goingSzymon Kolasa above · Maciej Nowalinski below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 93 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Szymon Kolasa at 56.5%
93 points played in total.
H2H Szymon Kolasa 11–12 Maciej Nowalinski Szymon Kolasa has won 11 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:08What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kolasa
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-12 in 23
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolasa 1887 vs Nowalinski 1733
Kolasa
Wrong
both rated, 154 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolasa 60% vs Nowalinski 20%
Kolasa
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolasa 60% vs Nowalinski 40%
Kolasa
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolasa +1 · Nowalinski -3
Nowalinski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Kolasa)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nowalinski form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolasa 1.73 / Nowalinski 2.00
Signal prob.57% / 44%
Edge (Kolasa)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13082229
Kolasa1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite74% won 62 of 84
Up 2–0, closes it96% 24 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it92% 47 of 51
Nowalinski2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog38% won 132 of 352
Down 0–1, comes back19% 38 of 204
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 92
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolasa7wins
AwayNowalinski3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKolasa leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolasa83.3%5 of 6
AwayNowalinski50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolasa6Nowalinski4n = 10Kolasa took 6 of 10
S2Kolasa5Nowalinski5n = 10split evenly
S3Kolasa6Nowalinski4n = 10Kolasa took 6 of 10
S4Kolasa6Nowalinski4n = 10Kolasa took 6 of 10
S5Kolasa2Nowalinski1n = 3Kolasa took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolasaNowalinskiK − NBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.039.3+2.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolasaNowalinskiBasisWin rate · lifetime283 / 517 vs 837 / 173854.7%48.2%283 / 517 vs 837 / 1738Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.238.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolasaKolasa 1.73/Nowalinski 2.00
Miss
What we said
56.5%
Kolasa · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Nowalinski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 5 · 09:40S. Kolasa—11491172M. Nowalinski—911116113
WSep 5 · 07:20S. Kolasa—113116113M. Nowalinski—51181192
WJul 15 · 13:50S. Kolasa—111111113M. Nowalinski—138881
WMar 28 · 12:35S. Kolasa—117119113M. Nowalinski—91191152
WMar 28 · 08:15S. Kolasa—111011113M. Nowalinski—612571
WJan 25 · 12:35S. Kolasa—11811113M. Nowalinski—911671
WJan 25 · 09:25S. Kolasa—81111113M. Nowalinski—114481
WOct 24 · 15:10S. Kolasa—13126113M. Nowalinski—11101171
LOct 17 · 14:50S. Kolasa—811891M. Nowalinski—11911113
LOct 17 · 09:35S. Kolasa—8161061M. Nowalinski—111412113
S. Kolasa10
WSep 7 · 06:55S. Kolasa2.00131111113M. Jadczyk1.73156591LSep 7 · 05:40S. Kolasa2.00613791P. David1.73111111113LSep 7 · 04:10S. Kolasa2.386270J. Kosowski1.531111113WSep 6 · 14:35S. Kolasa1.7311811113J. Braun2.00711751WSep 6 · 12:55S. Kolasa1.6111811113M. Nowalinski2.20811761LSep 6 · 11:40S. Kolasa1.40121211592S. Sporek2.751014611113WSep 6 · 10:00S. Kolasa1.4461111113G. Adamiak2.63117621WSep 6 · 09:00S. Kolasa1.44121169113M. Domin2.63106111162WSep 6 · 07:45M. Domin2.63710100S. Kolasa1.441112123WSep 6 · 06:55S. Sporek2.7591190S. Kolasa1.401113113
M. Nowalinski10
LSep 6 · 13:45G. Adamiak1.83113611113M. Nowalinski1.8361111662LSep 6 · 12:55S. Kolasa1.6111811113M. Nowalinski2.20811761LSep 6 · 12:05M. Nowalinski2.50115991J. Braun1.5021111113WSep 6 · 10:25M. Nowalinski1.5711511113M. Domin2.25911791LSep 6 · 09:40S. Sporek1.9111111110113M. Nowalinski1.8079131282WSep 6 · 08:30S. Sporek1.9141111672M. Nowalinski1.80116711113LSep 6 · 07:20M. Nowalinski1.508138101G. Poliniewicz2.50111111123LSep 6 · 04:55J. Braun1.5011128113M. Nowalinski2.504101161LSep 6 · 03:25M. Domin2.2512511113M. Nowalinski1.571011841LSep 5 · 14:10M. Nowalinski2.0041111992G. Adamiak1.73118611113
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