TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13083149
Played Sep 6Finished
Szymon Sporek
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11711911131012118
Maciej Nowalinski
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:14 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMaciej Nowalinski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingSzymon Sporek above · Maciej Nowalinski below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 10-7
Point 101 set 5, 10-7 — our read held Maciej Nowalinski at 54.0%
101 points drawn · the score is 2 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Szymon Sporek 15–19 Maciej Nowalinski Szymon Sporek has won 15 of their 34 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:14What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Nowalinski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-19 in 34
Nowalinski
Wrong
gap of 4 in 34, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sporek 1759 vs Nowalinski 1757
Sporek
Correct
both rated, 2 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sporek 40% vs Nowalinski 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sporek 30% vs Nowalinski 50%
Nowalinski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sporek -2 · Nowalinski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Nowalinski)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nowalinski form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSporek 1.91 / Nowalinski 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Nowalinski)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13083149
Sporek1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog42% won 71 of 168
Down 0–1, comes back19% 15 of 79
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 39
Nowalinski1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 191 of 315
Up 2–0, closes it100% 64 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it84% 137 of 164
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSporek6wins
AwayNowalinski4wins
7 of 10 to a deciderSporek leads 6–4, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSporek85.7%6 of 7
AwayNowalinski100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sporek7Nowalinski3n = 10Sporek took 7 of 10
S2Sporek4Nowalinski6n = 10Nowalinski took 6 of 10
S3Sporek5Nowalinski5n = 10split evenly
S4Sporek2Nowalinski7n = 9Nowalinski took 7 of 9
S5Sporek5Nowalinski2n = 7Sporek took 5 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSporekNowalinskiS − NBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match42.442.0+0.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSporekNowalinskiBasisWin rate · lifetime407 / 819 vs 838 / 174049.7%48.2%407 / 819 vs 838 / 1740Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.438.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NowalinskiSporek 1.91/Nowalinski 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Nowalinski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Sporek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 08:30S. Sporek—41111672M. Nowalinski—116711113
LSep 5 · 10:50S. Sporek—58120M. Nowalinski—1111143
WSep 5 · 08:05S. Sporek—11118113M. Nowalinski—681191
LJul 21 · 09:40S. Sporek—511591M. Nowalinski—11811113
WJul 20 · 09:40S. Sporek—111149113M. Nowalinski—78111172
WJul 20 · 07:20S. Sporek—116118113M. Nowalinski—91151182
WJul 15 · 10:05S. Sporek—1110119113M. Nowalinski—61271162
LMay 28 · 07:15S. Sporek—11911882M. Nowalinski—811811113
WMay 20 · 14:25S. Sporek—117117113M. Nowalinski—81161162
WMay 3 · 21:10S. Sporek—118911113M. Nowalinski—51111872
S. Sporek10
LSep 6 · 14:10S. Sporek1.8011911181M. Domin1.9171113203LSep 6 · 12:30G. Adamiak1.831111715113S. Sporek1.8387111752WSep 6 · 11:40S. Kolasa1.40121211592S. Sporek2.751014611113WSep 6 · 10:50S. Sporek2.75811711113J. Braun1.4011911562LSep 6 · 08:30S. Sporek1.9141111672M. Nowalinski1.80116711113LSep 6 · 06:55S. Sporek2.7591190S. Kolasa1.401113113WSep 6 · 05:40S. Sporek2.751711102113J. Braun1.40157121192LSep 6 · 04:10S. Sporek2.101178101M. Domin1.6781111123WSep 6 · 03:00S. Sporek1.5711116133G. Poliniewicz2.259611111WSep 5 · 14:35M. Domin1.73125581S. Sporek2.00101111113
M. Nowalinski10
LSep 6 · 13:45G. Adamiak1.83113611113M. Nowalinski1.8361111662LSep 6 · 12:55S. Kolasa1.6111811113M. Nowalinski2.20811761LSep 6 · 12:05M. Nowalinski2.50115991J. Braun1.5021111113WSep 6 · 10:25M. Nowalinski1.5711511113M. Domin2.25911791WSep 6 · 08:30S. Sporek1.9141111672M. Nowalinski1.80116711113LSep 6 · 07:20M. Nowalinski1.508138101G. Poliniewicz2.50111111123WSep 6 · 06:05S. Kolasa1.73101151182M. Nowalinski2.00126118113LSep 6 · 04:55J. Braun1.5011128113M. Nowalinski2.504101161LSep 6 · 03:25M. Domin2.2512511113M. Nowalinski1.571011841LSep 5 · 14:10M. Nowalinski2.0041111992G. Adamiak1.73118611113
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