TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13082388
Played Sep 6Finished
Szymon Sporek
Home
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
9111113911––––
Szymon Kolasa
Away
1.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:48 and never touched — 65.1% is still 65.1%
Graded at full timeSzymon Kolasa to win
65.1%
65.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSzymon Sporek above · Szymon Kolasa below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 64 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Szymon Kolasa at 65.1%
64 points played in total.
H2H Szymon Sporek 6–17 Szymon Kolasa Szymon Sporek has won 6 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:48What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Kolasa
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-17 in 23
Kolasa
Correct
gap of 11 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sporek 1742 vs Kolasa 1889
Kolasa
Correct
both rated, 147 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sporek 60% vs Kolasa 40%
Sporek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sporek 40% vs Kolasa 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sporek +1 · Kolasa -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Kolasa) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolasa form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSporek 2.75 / Kolasa 1.40
Signal prob.29% / 71%
Edge (Kolasa)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13082388
Sporek2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 75 of 175
Down 0–1, comes back20% 17 of 84
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 41
Kolasa1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite74% won 69 of 93
Up 2–0, closes it97% 28 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it91% 53 of 58
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSporek3wins
AwayKolasa7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKolasa leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSporekn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKolasa87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sporek2Kolasa8n = 10Kolasa took 8 of 10
S2Sporek5Kolasa5n = 10split evenly
S3Sporek2Kolasa8n = 10Kolasa took 8 of 10
S4Sporek3Kolasa4n = 7Kolasa took 4 of 7
S5Sporek3Kolasa2n = 5Sporek took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSporekKolasaS − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match41.744.3−2.6per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSporekKolasaBasisWin rate · lifetime403 / 812 vs 289 / 52749.6%54.8%403 / 812 vs 289 / 527Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.439.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolasaSporek 2.75/Kolasa 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.7%
Kolasa · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kolasa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 11:40S. Sporek—1014611113S. Kolasa—121211592
LSep 6 · 06:55S. Sporek—91190S. Kolasa—1113113
LSep 5 · 12:05S. Sporek—6229141S. Kolasa—112011163
WSep 5 · 04:55S. Sporek—116118113S. Kolasa—41171182
LJul 15 · 13:00S. Sporek—911161162S. Kolasa—116188113
LJul 7 · 12:10S. Sporek—91191172S. Kolasa—119118113
LMar 29 · 14:30S. Sporek—91011131S. Kolasa—11124143
LMar 28 · 14:15S. Sporek—8890S. Kolasa—1111113
WMar 27 · 20:45S. Sporek—111276133S. Kolasa—7101111112
LJan 25 · 15:05S. Sporek—10650S. Kolasa—121193
S. Sporek10
LSep 6 · 14:10S. Sporek1.8011911181M. Domin1.9171113203LSep 6 · 12:30G. Adamiak1.831111715113S. Sporek1.8387111752WSep 6 · 11:40S. Kolasa1.40121211592S. Sporek2.751014611113WSep 6 · 10:50S. Sporek2.75811711113J. Braun1.4011911562WSep 6 · 09:40S. Sporek1.9111111110113M. Nowalinski1.8079131282LSep 6 · 08:30S. Sporek1.9141111672M. Nowalinski1.80116711113WSep 6 · 05:40S. Sporek2.751711102113J. Braun1.40157121192LSep 6 · 04:10S. Sporek2.101178101M. Domin1.6781111123WSep 6 · 03:00S. Sporek1.5711116133G. Poliniewicz2.259611111WSep 5 · 14:35M. Domin1.73125581S. Sporek2.00101111113
S. Kolasa10
WSep 7 · 06:55S. Kolasa2.00131111113M. Jadczyk1.73156591LSep 7 · 05:40S. Kolasa2.00613791P. David1.73111111113LSep 7 · 04:10S. Kolasa2.386270J. Kosowski1.531111113WSep 6 · 14:35S. Kolasa1.7311811113J. Braun2.00711751WSep 6 · 12:55S. Kolasa1.6111811113M. Nowalinski2.20811761LSep 6 · 11:40S. Kolasa1.40121211592S. Sporek2.751014611113WSep 6 · 10:00S. Kolasa1.4461111113G. Adamiak2.63117621WSep 6 · 09:00S. Kolasa1.44121169113M. Domin2.63106111162WSep 6 · 07:45M. Domin2.63710100S. Kolasa1.441112123LSep 6 · 06:05S. Kolasa1.73101151182M. Nowalinski2.00126118113
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