TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13082450
Played Sep 6Finished
Szymon Sporek
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
11791111131820––
Maciej Domin
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:09 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeMaciej Domin to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSzymon Sporek above · Maciej Domin below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 18-20
Point 100 set 4, 18-20 — our read held Maciej Domin at 54.9%
100 points played in total.
H2H Szymon Sporek 33–32 Maciej Domin Maciej Domin has won 32 of their 65 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:09What took a side0 for · 3 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Sporek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
33-32 in 65
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sporek 1787 vs Domin 1761
Sporek
Wrong
both rated, 26 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sporek 60% vs Domin 40%
Sporek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sporek 60% vs Domin 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sporek -1 · Domin +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Domin) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Domin form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSporek 1.80 / Domin 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Domin)+5.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13082450
Sporek1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 124 of 211
Up 2–0, closes it97% 67 of 69
Up 1–0, closes it79% 103 of 130
Domin1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 80 of 182
Down 0–1, comes back30% 33 of 111
Down 0–2, comes back11% 6 of 55
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSporek5wins
AwayDomin5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSporek80%4 of 5
AwayDomin80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sporek5Domin5n = 10split evenly
S2Sporek9Domin1n = 10Sporek took 9 of 10
S3Sporek3Domin7n = 10Domin took 7 of 10
S4Sporek5Domin4n = 9Sporek took 5 of 9
S5Sporek2Domin4n = 6Domin took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSporekDominS − DBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match44.539.7+4.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSporekDominBasisWin rate · lifetime409 / 822 vs 492 / 94349.8%52.2%409 / 822 vs 492 / 943Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.438.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DominSporek 1.80/Domin 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Domin · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Domin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 04:10S. Sporek—1178101M. Domin—81111123
WSep 5 · 14:35S. Sporek—101111113M. Domin—125581
WSep 5 · 03:45S. Sporek—1111811113M. Domin—68111382
WJun 18 · 16:05S. Sporek—111189113M. Domin—66111192
LMay 29 · 14:00S. Sporek—811111372M. Domin—115515113
WApr 19 · 16:45S. Sporek—1111113M. Domin—5730
WApr 19 · 14:30S. Sporek—11118113M. Domin—941151
LApr 18 · 16:25S. Sporek—91171162M. Domin—117119113
LApr 17 · 19:25S. Sporek—101281152M. Domin—1210115113
LJan 11 · 18:05S. Sporek—7111011112M. Domin—116125133
S. Sporek10
LSep 6 · 12:30G. Adamiak1.831111715113S. Sporek1.8387111752WSep 6 · 11:40S. Kolasa1.40121211592S. Sporek2.751014611113WSep 6 · 10:50S. Sporek2.75811711113J. Braun1.4011911562WSep 6 · 09:40S. Sporek1.9111111110113M. Nowalinski1.8079131282LSep 6 · 08:30S. Sporek1.9141111672M. Nowalinski1.80116711113LSep 6 · 06:55S. Sporek2.7591190S. Kolasa1.401113113WSep 6 · 05:40S. Sporek2.751711102113J. Braun1.40157121192LSep 6 · 04:10S. Sporek2.101178101M. Domin1.6781111123WSep 6 · 03:00S. Sporek1.5711116133G. Poliniewicz2.259611111WSep 5 · 14:35M. Domin1.73125581S. Sporek2.00101111113
M. Domin10
WSep 6 · 13:20J. Braun1.404111271M. Domin2.7511514113WSep 6 · 11:15G. Adamiak1.80971191M. Domin1.9111113113LSep 6 · 10:25M. Nowalinski1.5711511113M. Domin2.25911791LSep 6 · 09:00S. Kolasa1.44121169113M. Domin2.63106111162LSep 6 · 07:45M. Domin2.63710100S. Kolasa1.441112123WSep 6 · 06:30M. Domin2.75111113113J. Braun1.405131161LSep 6 · 05:15M. Domin1.5711115192G. Poliniewicz2.25871111113WSep 6 · 04:10S. Sporek2.101178101M. Domin1.6781111123WSep 6 · 03:25M. Domin2.2512511113M. Nowalinski1.571011841LSep 5 · 14:35M. Domin1.73125581S. Sporek2.00101111113
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