TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13082966
Played Sep 6Finished
Szymon Kolasa
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
12101214116511911
Szymon Sporek
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:18 and never touched — 70.7% is still 70.7%
Graded at full timeSzymon Kolasa to win
70.7%
70.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingSzymon Kolasa above · Szymon Sporek below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 101 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Szymon Kolasa at 70.7%
101 points played in total.
H2H Szymon Kolasa 17–5 Szymon Sporek Szymon Sporek has won 5 of their 22 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:18What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Kolasa
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-5 in 22
Kolasa
Wrong
gap of 12 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolasa 1913 vs Sporek 1784
Kolasa
Wrong
both rated, 129 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolasa 80% vs Sporek 60%
Kolasa
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolasa 70% vs Sporek 50%
Kolasa
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolasa +4 · Sporek +2
Kolasa
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Kolasa)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sporek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolasa 1.40 / Sporek 2.75
Signal prob.71% / 29%
Edge (Kolasa)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13082966
Kolasa1.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite74% won 62 of 84
Up 2–0, closes it96% 24 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it92% 47 of 51
Sporek2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 71 of 168
Down 0–1, comes back19% 15 of 79
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolasa7wins
AwaySporek3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKolasa leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolasa100%7 of 7
AwaySporek100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolasa7Sporek3n = 10Kolasa took 7 of 10
S2Kolasa6Sporek4n = 10Kolasa took 6 of 10
S3Kolasa7Sporek3n = 10Kolasa took 7 of 10
S4Kolasa5Sporek2n = 7Kolasa took 5 of 7
S5Kolasa2Sporek3n = 5Sporek took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolasaSporekK − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match43.741.3+2.4per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolasaSporekBasisWin rate · lifetime287 / 522 vs 408 / 82055%49.8%287 / 522 vs 408 / 820Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.239.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolasaKolasa 1.40/Sporek 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
70.7%
Kolasa · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Sporek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 06:55S. Kolasa—1113113S. Sporek—91190
WSep 5 · 12:05S. Kolasa—112011163S. Sporek—6229141
LSep 5 · 04:55S. Kolasa—41171182S. Sporek—116118113
WJul 15 · 13:00S. Kolasa—116188113S. Sporek—911161162
WJul 7 · 12:10S. Kolasa—119118113S. Sporek—91191172
WMar 29 · 14:30S. Kolasa—11124143S. Sporek—91011131
WMar 28 · 14:15S. Kolasa—1111113S. Sporek—8890
LMar 27 · 20:45S. Kolasa—7101111112S. Sporek—111276133
WJan 25 · 15:05S. Kolasa—121193S. Sporek—10650
LJan 23 · 19:15S. Kolasa—611101152S. Sporek—119125113
S. Kolasa10
WSep 7 · 06:55S. Kolasa2.00131111113M. Jadczyk1.73156591LSep 7 · 05:40S. Kolasa2.00613791P. David1.73111111113LSep 7 · 04:10S. Kolasa2.386270J. Kosowski1.531111113WSep 6 · 14:35S. Kolasa1.7311811113J. Braun2.00711751WSep 6 · 12:55S. Kolasa1.6111811113M. Nowalinski2.20811761WSep 6 · 10:00S. Kolasa1.4461111113G. Adamiak2.63117621WSep 6 · 09:00S. Kolasa1.44121169113M. Domin2.63106111162WSep 6 · 07:45M. Domin2.63710100S. Kolasa1.441112123WSep 6 · 06:55S. Sporek2.7591190S. Kolasa1.401113113LSep 6 · 06:05S. Kolasa1.73101151182M. Nowalinski2.00126118113
S. Sporek10
LSep 6 · 14:10S. Sporek1.8011911181M. Domin1.9171113203LSep 6 · 12:30G. Adamiak1.831111715113S. Sporek1.8387111752WSep 6 · 10:50S. Sporek2.75811711113J. Braun1.4011911562WSep 6 · 09:40S. Sporek1.9111111110113M. Nowalinski1.8079131282LSep 6 · 08:30S. Sporek1.9141111672M. Nowalinski1.80116711113LSep 6 · 06:55S. Sporek2.7591190S. Kolasa1.401113113WSep 6 · 05:40S. Sporek2.751711102113J. Braun1.40157121192LSep 6 · 04:10S. Sporek2.101178101M. Domin1.6781111123WSep 6 · 03:00S. Sporek1.5711116133G. Poliniewicz2.259611111WSep 5 · 14:35M. Domin1.73125581S. Sporek2.00101111113
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