TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13082449
Played Sep 6Finished
Szymon Kolasa
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118811117116––
Maciej Nowalinski
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:09 and never touched — 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeSzymon Kolasa to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSzymon Kolasa above · Maciej Nowalinski below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 73 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Szymon Kolasa at 56.5%
73 points played in total.
H2H Szymon Kolasa 11–13 Maciej Nowalinski Szymon Kolasa has won 11 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:09What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kolasa
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-13 in 24
Nowalinski
Wrong
gap of 2 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolasa 1899 vs Nowalinski 1746
Kolasa
Correct
both rated, 152 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolasa 80% vs Nowalinski 40%
Kolasa
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolasa 60% vs Nowalinski 40%
Kolasa
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolasa -1 · Nowalinski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Kolasa) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolasa form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolasa 1.61 / Nowalinski 2.20
Signal prob.61% / 40%
Edge (Kolasa)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13082449
Kolasa1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite74% won 62 of 84
Up 2–0, closes it96% 24 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it92% 47 of 51
Nowalinski2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 132 of 352
Down 0–1, comes back19% 38 of 204
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 92
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolasa7wins
AwayNowalinski3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKolasa leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolasa83.3%5 of 6
AwayNowalinski50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolasa6Nowalinski4n = 10Kolasa took 6 of 10
S2Kolasa5Nowalinski5n = 10split evenly
S3Kolasa6Nowalinski4n = 10Kolasa took 6 of 10
S4Kolasa7Nowalinski3n = 10Kolasa took 7 of 10
S5Kolasa2Nowalinski2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolasaNowalinskiK − NBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.539.3+3.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolasaNowalinskiBasisWin rate · lifetime287 / 523 vs 838 / 174154.9%48.1%287 / 523 vs 838 / 1741Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.238.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolasaKolasa 1.61/Nowalinski 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.5%
Kolasa · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kolasa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 06:05S. Kolasa—101151182M. Nowalinski—126118113
LSep 5 · 09:40S. Kolasa—11491172M. Nowalinski—911116113
WSep 5 · 07:20S. Kolasa—113116113M. Nowalinski—51181192
WJul 15 · 13:50S. Kolasa—111111113M. Nowalinski—138881
WMar 28 · 12:35S. Kolasa—117119113M. Nowalinski—91191152
WMar 28 · 08:15S. Kolasa—111011113M. Nowalinski—612571
WJan 25 · 12:35S. Kolasa—11811113M. Nowalinski—911671
WJan 25 · 09:25S. Kolasa—81111113M. Nowalinski—114481
WOct 24 · 15:10S. Kolasa—13126113M. Nowalinski—11101171
LOct 17 · 14:50S. Kolasa—811891M. Nowalinski—11911113
S. Kolasa10
WSep 7 · 06:55S. Kolasa2.00131111113M. Jadczyk1.73156591LSep 7 · 05:40S. Kolasa2.00613791P. David1.73111111113LSep 7 · 04:10S. Kolasa2.386270J. Kosowski1.531111113WSep 6 · 14:35S. Kolasa1.7311811113J. Braun2.00711751LSep 6 · 11:40S. Kolasa1.40121211592S. Sporek2.751014611113WSep 6 · 10:00S. Kolasa1.4461111113G. Adamiak2.63117621WSep 6 · 09:00S. Kolasa1.44121169113M. Domin2.63106111162WSep 6 · 07:45M. Domin2.63710100S. Kolasa1.441112123WSep 6 · 06:55S. Sporek2.7591190S. Kolasa1.401113113LSep 6 · 06:05S. Kolasa1.73101151182M. Nowalinski2.00126118113
M. Nowalinski10
LSep 6 · 13:45G. Adamiak1.83113611113M. Nowalinski1.8361111662LSep 6 · 12:05M. Nowalinski2.50115991J. Braun1.5021111113WSep 6 · 10:25M. Nowalinski1.5711511113M. Domin2.25911791LSep 6 · 09:40S. Sporek1.9111111110113M. Nowalinski1.8079131282WSep 6 · 08:30S. Sporek1.9141111672M. Nowalinski1.80116711113LSep 6 · 07:20M. Nowalinski1.508138101G. Poliniewicz2.50111111123WSep 6 · 06:05S. Kolasa1.73101151182M. Nowalinski2.00126118113LSep 6 · 04:55J. Braun1.5011128113M. Nowalinski2.504101161LSep 6 · 03:25M. Domin2.2512511113M. Nowalinski1.571011841LSep 5 · 14:10M. Nowalinski2.0041111992G. Adamiak1.73118611113
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