TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13082474
Played Sep 6Finished
Maciej Nowalinski
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
112511911911––
Josef Braun
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:19 and never touched — 66.0% is still 66.0%
Graded at full timeJosef Braun to win
66.0%
66.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMaciej Nowalinski above · Josef Braun below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 69 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Josef Braun at 66.0%
69 points played in total.
H2H Maciej Nowalinski 10–29 Josef Braun Maciej Nowalinski has won 10 of their 39 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:19What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Braun
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-29 in 39
Braun
Correct
gap of 19 in 39, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nowalinski 1757 vs Braun 1804
Braun
Correct
both rated, 47 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nowalinski 60% vs Braun 40%
Nowalinski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nowalinski 40% vs Braun 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Nowalinski +1 · Braun -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Braun) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Braun form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNowalinski 2.50 / Braun 1.50
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Braun)+4.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13082474
Nowalinski2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 132 of 352
Down 0–1, comes back19% 38 of 204
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 92
Braun1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 143 of 244
Up 2–0, closes it90% 78 of 87
Up 1–0, closes it75% 109 of 146
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNowalinski1wins
AwayBraun9wins
1 of 10 to a deciderBraun leads 9–1, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNowalinskin = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayBraun100%8 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nowalinski2Braun8n = 10Braun took 8 of 10
S2Nowalinski2Braun8n = 10Braun took 8 of 10
S3Nowalinski3Braun7n = 10Braun took 7 of 10
S4Nowalinski2Braun4n = 6Braun took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricNowalinskiBraunN − BBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match27.939.2−11.3per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNowalinskiBraunBasisWin rate · lifetime838 / 1740 vs 503 / 96248.2%52.3%838 / 1740 vs 503 / 962Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.637.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BraunNowalinski 2.50/Braun 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.8%
Braun · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Braun won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 13 · 11:20M. Nowalinski—8780J. Braun—1111113
LJul 10 · 10:05M. Nowalinski—7770J. Braun—1111113
LJun 23 · 06:30M. Nowalinski—511311102J. Braun—118118123
LJun 6 · 14:05M. Nowalinski—8580J. Braun—1111113
LMay 27 · 11:55M. Nowalinski—581461J. Braun—111112113
WMay 27 · 08:20M. Nowalinski—15911113J. Braun—1311871
LMay 24 · 08:25M. Nowalinski—712271J. Braun—111011113
LMay 19 · 03:30M. Nowalinski—114741J. Braun—81111113
LMay 17 · 12:50M. Nowalinski—9260J. Braun—1111113
LMay 17 · 05:50M. Nowalinski—451141J. Braun—11119113
M. Nowalinski10
LSep 6 · 13:45G. Adamiak1.83113611113M. Nowalinski1.8361111662LSep 6 · 12:55S. Kolasa1.6111811113M. Nowalinski2.20811761WSep 6 · 10:25M. Nowalinski1.5711511113M. Domin2.25911791LSep 6 · 09:40S. Sporek1.9111111110113M. Nowalinski1.8079131282WSep 6 · 08:30S. Sporek1.9141111672M. Nowalinski1.80116711113LSep 6 · 07:20M. Nowalinski1.508138101G. Poliniewicz2.50111111123WSep 6 · 06:05S. Kolasa1.73101151182M. Nowalinski2.00126118113LSep 6 · 04:55J. Braun1.5011128113M. Nowalinski2.504101161LSep 6 · 03:25M. Domin2.2512511113M. Nowalinski1.571011841LSep 5 · 14:10M. Nowalinski2.0041111992G. Adamiak1.73118611113
J. Braun10
LSep 6 · 14:35S. Kolasa1.7311811113J. Braun2.00711751LSep 6 · 13:20J. Braun1.404111271M. Domin2.7511514113LSep 6 · 10:50S. Sporek2.75811711113J. Braun1.4011911562WSep 6 · 09:20G. Adamiak2.75911961J. Braun1.4011911113WSep 6 · 08:05J. Braun1.36111111113G. Poliniewicz3.00139741LSep 6 · 06:30M. Domin2.75111113113J. Braun1.405131161LSep 6 · 05:40S. Sporek2.751711102113J. Braun1.40157121192WSep 6 · 04:55J. Braun1.5011128113M. Nowalinski2.504101161WSep 6 · 03:45J. Braun2.0014911113S. Kolasa1.731211581WSep 3 · 19:40J. Braun1.731311113A. Daniel2.0011750
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