TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13077482
Played Sep 4Finished
Jakub Zochniak
Home
3.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
116411411811––
Grzegorz Poliniewicz
Away
1.27
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:18 and never touched — 80.8% is still 80.8%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Poliniewicz to win
80.8%
80.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
66 points played in total.
Set by set
116411411811––
H2H Jakub Zochniak 23–104 Grzegorz Poliniewicz Jakub Zochniak has won 23 of their 127 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:18What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.27 (72%)
Poliniewicz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-104 in 127
Poliniewicz
Correct
gap of 81 in 127, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zochniak 1620 vs Poliniewicz 1708
Poliniewicz
Correct
both rated, 87 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zochniak 60% vs Poliniewicz 40%
Zochniak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zochniak 60% vs Poliniewicz 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zochniak -1 · Poliniewicz -3
Poliniewicz
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 78% — Strong (leans Poliniewicz) · live re-read · sealed at 81% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Poliniewicz form (40%) is below what odds imply (79%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZochniak 3.25 / Poliniewicz 1.27
Signal prob.22% / 78%
Edge (Poliniewicz)+6.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13077482
Zochniak3.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog34% won 159 of 464
Down 0–1, comes back13% 35 of 265
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 139
Poliniewicz1.27
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite71% won 342 of 481
Up 2–0, closes it95% 153 of 161
Up 1–0, closes it85% 252 of 296
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZochniak1wins
AwayPoliniewicz9wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPoliniewicz leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZochniak0%0 of 3
AwayPoliniewicz85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zochniak3Poliniewicz7n = 10Poliniewicz took 7 of 10
S2Zochniak3Poliniewicz7n = 10Poliniewicz took 7 of 10
S3Zochniak2Poliniewicz8n = 10Poliniewicz took 8 of 10
S4Zochniak1Poliniewicz6n = 7Poliniewicz took 6 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricZochniakPoliniewiczZ − PBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match29.339.8−10.5per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZochniakPoliniewiczBasisWin rate · lifetime1196 / 2269 vs 1251 / 210652.7%59.4%1196 / 2269 vs 1251 / 2106Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PoliniewiczZochniak 3.25/Poliniewicz 1.27
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
78.2%
Poliniewicz · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Poliniewicz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 4 · 08:30J. Zochniak—111081162G. Poliniewicz—912119113
LSep 3 · 06:50J. Zochniak—712551G. Poliniewicz—111011113
LAug 27 · 04:00J. Zochniak—911761G. Poliniewicz—11411113
LAug 25 · 05:15J. Zochniak—1680G. Poliniewicz—1111113
LAug 24 · 04:25J. Zochniak—117441G. Poliniewicz—91111113
LAug 21 · 13:50J. Zochniak—761171G. Poliniewicz—11117113
LAug 21 · 08:30J. Zochniak—115961G. Poliniewicz—91111113
LAug 20 · 04:25J. Zochniak—5670G. Poliniewicz—1111113
LAug 13 · 08:35J. Zochniak—5680G. Poliniewicz—1111113
WJul 30 · 10:05J. Zochniak—811114113G. Poliniewicz—11681172
J. Zochniak10
WSep 7 · 06:25J. Zochniak1.54111111113M. Minda2.25881381LSep 7 · 05:15J. Zochniak1.75991281D. Solilo1.95111110113LSep 7 · 04:00M. Sklensky1.42111111113J. Zochniak2.60471351LSep 7 · 03:20J. Zochniak2.95881141K. Wisniewski1.3311116113LSep 6 · 19:40D. Jadam1.61178912113J. Zochniak2.201511111092WSep 6 · 18:50F. Mlynarski1.40810111192J. Zochniak2.75111254113WSep 6 · 18:05J. Zochniak2.6371111123K. Kapik1.441159101WSep 6 · 16:30J. Zochniak2.75139144113J. Kuzmicz1.401111121162LSep 6 · 15:45L. Pietraszko1.73961111113J. Zochniak2.0011119562LSep 4 · 12:35J. Zochniak4.955980K. Wloczko1.131111113
G. Poliniewicz10
LSep 7 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.141111510113G. Poliniewicz5.0079111282LSep 7 · 04:55P. David1.081111113G. Poliniewicz7.003690LSep 7 · 03:25J. Kosowski1.281211133G. Poliniewicz3.50107110LSep 6 · 08:05J. Braun1.36111111113G. Poliniewicz3.00139741WSep 6 · 07:20M. Nowalinski1.508138101G. Poliniewicz2.50111111123WSep 6 · 05:15M. Domin1.5711115192G. Poliniewicz2.25871111113LSep 6 · 04:30S. Kolasa1.331111113G. Poliniewicz3.255680LSep 6 · 03:00S. Sporek1.5711116133G. Poliniewicz2.259611111LSep 4 · 13:00A. Daniel1.3511711113G. Poliniewicz2.85611591LSep 4 · 12:10G. Poliniewicz2.357660S. Dosz1.531111113
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