TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13083287
Played Sep 6Finished
Jakub Zochniak
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
13119111412411116
Jakub Kuzmicz
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:33 and never touched — 55.4% is still 55.4%
Graded at full timeJakub Kuzmicz to win
55.4%
55.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJakub Zochniak above · Jakub Kuzmicz below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 102 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Jakub Kuzmicz at 55.4%
102 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Zochniak 12–15 Jakub Kuzmicz Jakub Zochniak has won 12 of their 27 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:33What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Kuzmicz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-15 in 27
Kuzmicz
Wrong
gap of 3 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zochniak 1599 vs Kuzmicz 1753
Kuzmicz
Wrong
both rated, 154 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zochniak 40% vs Kuzmicz 60%
Kuzmicz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zochniak 50% vs Kuzmicz 70%
Kuzmicz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zochniak -3 · Kuzmicz +1
Zochniak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Clear lean (leans Kuzmicz) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kuzmicz form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZochniak 2.75 / Kuzmicz 1.40
Signal prob.31% / 70%
Edge (Kuzmicz)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13083287
Zochniak2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog34% won 158 of 460
Down 0–1, comes back13% 34 of 260
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 137
Kuzmicz1.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 422 of 683
Up 2–0, closes it98% 173 of 177
Up 1–0, closes it82% 291 of 357
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZochniak4wins
AwayKuzmicz6wins
6 of 10 to a deciderKuzmicz leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZochniak66.7%4 of 6
AwayKuzmicz100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zochniak6Kuzmicz4n = 10Zochniak took 6 of 10
S2Zochniak6Kuzmicz4n = 10Zochniak took 6 of 10
S3Zochniak2Kuzmicz8n = 10Kuzmicz took 8 of 10
S4Zochniak6Kuzmicz4n = 10Zochniak took 6 of 10
S5Zochniak2Kuzmicz4n = 6Kuzmicz took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricZochniakKuzmiczZ − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.444.2−2.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZochniakKuzmiczBasisWin rate · lifetime1183 / 2249 vs 656 / 113852.6%57.6%1183 / 2249 vs 656 / 1138Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.140.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KuzmiczZochniak 2.75/Kuzmicz 1.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
69.5%
Kuzmicz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Zochniak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 7 · 22:50J. Zochniak—91461172J. Kuzmicz—1112116113
WJun 29 · 20:05J. Zochniak—11811163J. Kuzmicz—8116141
LJun 19 · 24:20J. Zochniak—115791J. Kuzmicz—61111113
LJun 18 · 22:05J. Zochniak—81171172J. Kuzmicz—118118113
LJun 10 · 01:05J. Zochniak—71171132J. Kuzmicz—119116113
WJun 9 · 22:40J. Zochniak—121176113J. Kuzmicz—105111182
WJun 8 · 19:45J. Zochniak—11911113J. Kuzmicz—911981
LJun 5 · 20:10J. Zochniak—116861J. Kuzmicz—61111113
WMay 18 · 19:25J. Zochniak—111144113J. Kuzmicz—98111162
LMay 17 · 16:00J. Zochniak—911411102J. Kuzmicz—118118123
J. Zochniak10
WSep 7 · 06:25J. Zochniak1.54111111113M. Minda2.25881381LSep 7 · 05:15J. Zochniak1.75991281D. Solilo1.95111110113LSep 7 · 04:00M. Sklensky1.42111111113J. Zochniak2.60471351LSep 7 · 03:20J. Zochniak2.95881141K. Wisniewski1.3311116113LSep 6 · 19:40D. Jadam1.61178912113J. Zochniak2.201511111092WSep 6 · 18:50F. Mlynarski1.40810111192J. Zochniak2.75111254113WSep 6 · 18:05J. Zochniak2.6371111123K. Kapik1.441159101LSep 6 · 15:45L. Pietraszko1.73961111113J. Zochniak2.0011119562LSep 4 · 13:50J. Zochniak3.25114481G. Poliniewicz1.2761111113LSep 4 · 12:35J. Zochniak4.955980K. Wloczko1.131111113
J. Kuzmicz10
WSep 6 · 20:05L. Pietraszko3.401110961J. Kuzmicz1.3091211113WSep 6 · 19:15K. Kapik2.258911101J. Kuzmicz1.5711115123WSep 6 · 17:20D. Jadam2.3881141172J. Kuzmicz1.53117118113WSep 6 · 15:00F. Mlynarski2.38131171172J. Kuzmicz1.53158114113LSep 5 · 19:40J. Kuzmicz1.731013691P. Jendrzejewski2.00121111113LSep 5 · 18:30J. Kuzmicz1.5091171172F. Mlynarski2.50118119113WSep 5 · 17:20J. Kuzmicz1.5711118113D. Jadam2.25661171WSep 5 · 16:05T. Filbrandt2.251111781J. Kuzmicz1.5791311103WSep 5 · 15:25J. Kuzmicz1.22911116113A. Wos4.0011991192WSep 5 · 01:30J. Kuzmicz1.50111188113T. Filbrandt2.5048111192
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