TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13083282
Played Sep 6Finished
Lukasz Pietraszko
Home
3.40
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1191012911611––
Jakub Kuzmicz
Away
1.30
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:30 and never touched — 67.0% is still 67.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Kuzmicz to win
67.0%
67.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukasz Pietraszko above · Jakub Kuzmicz below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 79 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Jakub Kuzmicz at 67.0%
79 points played in total.
H2H Lukasz Pietraszko 5–13 Jakub Kuzmicz Lukasz Pietraszko has won 5 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:30What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Kuzmicz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-13 in 18
Kuzmicz
Correct
gap of 8 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pietraszko 1688 vs Kuzmicz 1762
Kuzmicz
Correct
both rated, 74 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pietraszko 80% vs Kuzmicz 60%
Pietraszko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pietraszko 60% vs Kuzmicz 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pietraszko +4 · Kuzmicz +2
Pietraszko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Kuzmicz) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kuzmicz form (60%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPietraszko 3.40 / Kuzmicz 1.30
Signal prob.23% / 77%
Edge (Kuzmicz)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13083282
Pietraszko3.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 98 of 261
Down 0–1, comes back19% 28 of 149
Down 0–2, comes back9% 8 of 91
Kuzmicz1.30
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 422 of 683
Up 2–0, closes it98% 173 of 177
Up 1–0, closes it82% 291 of 357
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePietraszko2wins
AwayKuzmicz8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKuzmicz leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePietraszko33.3%1 of 3
AwayKuzmicz85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pietraszko3Kuzmicz7n = 10Kuzmicz took 7 of 10
S2Pietraszko5Kuzmicz5n = 10split evenly
S3Pietraszko3Kuzmicz7n = 10Kuzmicz took 7 of 10
S4Pietraszko2Kuzmicz6n = 8Kuzmicz took 6 of 8
S5Pietraszko1Kuzmicz2n = 3Kuzmicz took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricPietraszkoKuzmiczP − KBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match34.140.9−6.8per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPietraszkoKuzmiczBasisWin rate · lifetime429 / 851 vs 659 / 114250.4%57.7%429 / 851 vs 659 / 1142Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.940.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KuzmiczPietraszko 3.40/Kuzmicz 1.30
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
76.7%
Kuzmicz · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kuzmicz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 5 · 15:45L. Pietraszko—118861J. Kuzmicz—51111113
WAug 3 · 23:20L. Pietraszko—111398113J. Kuzmicz—611111182
LJul 29 · 22:10L. Pietraszko—6111091J. Kuzmicz—11912113
LJul 29 · 18:30L. Pietraszko—9550J. Kuzmicz—1111113
WJul 24 · 01:10L. Pietraszko—71111113J. Kuzmicz—118891
LJul 23 · 22:50L. Pietraszko—5650J. Kuzmicz—1111113
LJul 21 · 24:45L. Pietraszko—31151162J. Kuzmicz—115119113
LJul 20 · 22:30L. Pietraszko—145861J. Kuzmicz—121111113
LJul 19 · 18:05L. Pietraszko—471171J. Kuzmicz—11118113
LJul 15 · 19:15L. Pietraszko—81111982J. Kuzmicz—117611113
L. Pietraszko10
WSep 7 · 24:35A. Wos2.201121111102L. Pietraszko1.61811613123LSep 6 · 22:55D. Jadam1.67115811113L. Pietraszko2.1091111792WSep 6 · 22:10F. Mlynarski1.501156101L. Pietraszko2.5071111123WSep 6 · 21:25K. Kapik1.671091181L. Pietraszko2.1012119113WSep 6 · 18:30D. Jadam1.67105120L. Pietraszko2.101211143WSep 6 · 17:40F. Mlynarski1.4491311962L. Pietraszko2.631111511113WSep 6 · 16:55L. Pietraszko1.831111123K. Kapik1.8362100WSep 6 · 15:45L. Pietraszko1.73961111113J. Zochniak2.0011119562LSep 2 · 23:20J. Chmielowski1.67117911153L. Pietraszko2.10811116132WSep 2 · 22:35M. Rutkowski1.449111181L. Pietraszko2.6311137113
J. Kuzmicz10
WSep 6 · 19:15K. Kapik2.258911101J. Kuzmicz1.5711115123WSep 6 · 17:20D. Jadam2.3881141172J. Kuzmicz1.53117118113LSep 6 · 16:30J. Zochniak2.75139144113J. Kuzmicz1.401111121162WSep 6 · 15:00F. Mlynarski2.38131171172J. Kuzmicz1.53158114113LSep 5 · 19:40J. Kuzmicz1.731013691P. Jendrzejewski2.00121111113LSep 5 · 18:30J. Kuzmicz1.5091171172F. Mlynarski2.50118119113WSep 5 · 17:20J. Kuzmicz1.5711118113D. Jadam2.25661171WSep 5 · 16:05T. Filbrandt2.251111781J. Kuzmicz1.5791311103WSep 5 · 15:25J. Kuzmicz1.22911116113A. Wos4.0011991192WSep 5 · 01:30J. Kuzmicz1.50111188113T. Filbrandt2.5048111192
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