TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13060860
Played Sep 2Finished
Mateusz Rutkowski
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9111113117811––
Lukasz Pietraszko
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:03 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukasz Pietraszko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMateusz Rutkowski above · Lukasz Pietraszko below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 81 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Lukasz Pietraszko at 54.0%
81 points played in total.
H2H Mateusz Rutkowski 13–5 Lukasz Pietraszko Lukasz Pietraszko has won 5 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:03What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Rutkowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-5 in 18
Rutkowski
Wrong
gap of 8 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rutkowski 1653 vs Pietraszko 1609
Rutkowski
Wrong
both rated, 44 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rutkowski 40% vs Pietraszko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rutkowski 50% vs Pietraszko 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rutkowski -1 · Pietraszko -3
Pietraszko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Rutkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rutkowski form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRutkowski 1.44 / Pietraszko 2.63
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Rutkowski)+2.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13060860
Rutkowski1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite69% won 385 of 556
Up 2–0, closes it96% 185 of 192
Up 1–0, closes it89% 309 of 349
Pietraszko2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 95 of 252
Down 0–1, comes back20% 28 of 143
Down 0–2, comes back9% 8 of 88
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRutkowski9wins
AwayPietraszko1wins
3 of 10 to a deciderRutkowski leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRutkowski100%4 of 4
AwayPietraszko16.7%1 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rutkowski4Pietraszko6n = 10Pietraszko took 6 of 10
S2Rutkowski6Pietraszko4n = 10Rutkowski took 6 of 10
S3Rutkowski9Pietraszko1n = 10Rutkowski took 9 of 10
S4Rutkowski5Pietraszko2n = 7Rutkowski took 5 of 7
S5Rutkowski3Pietraszko0n = 3Rutkowski took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricRutkowskiPietraszkoR − PBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.337.4+2.9per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRutkowskiPietraszkoBasisWin rate · lifetime760 / 1353 vs 424 / 84456.2%50.2%760 / 1353 vs 424 / 844Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RutkowskiRutkowski 1.44/Pietraszko 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.9%
Rutkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Pietraszko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 23 · 23:15M. Rutkowski—61114113L. Pietraszko—1171271
WJul 23 · 21:00M. Rutkowski—311118113L. Pietraszko—11881152
WJul 21 · 24:20M. Rutkowski—111212113L. Pietraszko—6141081
WJul 20 · 22:05M. Rutkowski—912117173L. Pietraszko—1110911152
WJul 5 · 18:30M. Rutkowski—11311113L. Pietraszko—611691
WJul 2 · 24:20M. Rutkowski—1311113L. Pietraszko—11980
WJul 1 · 22:05M. Rutkowski—1113113L. Pietraszko—91190
LJun 21 · 16:30M. Rutkowski—5770L. Pietraszko—1111113
WJun 17 · 23:35M. Rutkowski—491112113L. Pietraszko—111161072
WJun 17 · 21:20M. Rutkowski—101111113L. Pietraszko—129841
M. Rutkowski10
WSep 8 · 24:10M. Rutkowski1.501111143K. Kostyk2.5097120LSep 7 · 23:20M. Rutkowski2.00911101562K. Staszczyk1.731181213113WSep 7 · 21:50M. Rutkowski1.171111113B. Sulkowski4.507880WSep 7 · 21:25M. Rutkowski1.73714413113K. Kapik2.001112111182WSep 7 · 20:30K. Staszczyk1.73781111112M. Rutkowski2.00111168133WSep 7 · 19:15M. Rutkowski1.401111113K. Kostyk2.759980WSep 7 · 18:05K. Glazowski1.839111081M. Rutkowski1.8311912113LSep 7 · 16:55K. Kapik1.911112113M. Rutkowski1.8081070LSep 7 · 15:25K. Strowski1.6111111113M. Rutkowski2.20911341LSep 5 · 01:10M. Rutkowski1.57812111192M. Kolek2.251110139113
L. Pietraszko10
WSep 7 · 24:35A. Wos2.201121111102L. Pietraszko1.61811613123LSep 6 · 22:55D. Jadam1.67115811113L. Pietraszko2.1091111792WSep 6 · 22:10F. Mlynarski1.501156101L. Pietraszko2.5071111123WSep 6 · 21:25K. Kapik1.671091181L. Pietraszko2.1012119113LSep 6 · 20:05L. Pietraszko3.401110961J. Kuzmicz1.3091211113WSep 6 · 18:30D. Jadam1.67105120L. Pietraszko2.101211143WSep 6 · 17:40F. Mlynarski1.4491311962L. Pietraszko2.631111511113WSep 6 · 16:55L. Pietraszko1.831111123K. Kapik1.8362100WSep 6 · 15:45L. Pietraszko1.73961111113J. Zochniak2.0011119562LSep 2 · 23:20J. Chmielowski1.67117911153L. Pietraszko2.10811116132
Upcoming Matches
M. Rutkowski2 of 9 neutral
Sep 8 · 15:00M. Rutkowski1.23K. Kostyk3.50—Sep 8 · 16:30M. Rutkowski1.84K. Glazowski1.80—Sep 8 · 17:20M. Rutkowski1.85A. Daniel1.78—Sep 8 · 19:15M. Rutkowski1.72K. Kapik1.93—Sep 8 · 20:05M. Rutkowski1.38L. Pietraszko2.65—Sep 8 · 21:00M. Rutkowski1.42K. Kostyk2.55—Sep 8 · 22:55M. Rutkowski—L. Pietraszko——Sep 8 · 23:45M. Rutkowski—K. Staszczyk——Sep 9 · 24:10M. Rutkowski—K. Kapik——
L. Pietraszko
Sep 8 · 15:45L. Pietraszko2.80K. Glazowski1.35—Sep 8 · 16:55L. Pietraszko2.29K. Kapik1.51—Sep 8 · 17:40L. Pietraszko1.51K. Kostyk2.29—Sep 8 · 18:30L. Pietraszko2.85A. Daniel1.33—Sep 8 · 20:05L. Pietraszko2.65M. Rutkowski1.38—Sep 8 · 21:25L. Pietraszko2.12K. Kapik1.59—Sep 8 · 22:10L. Pietraszko—K. Kostyk——Sep 8 · 22:55L. Pietraszko—M. Rutkowski——Sep 9 · 24:35L. Pietraszko2.25K. Staszczyk1.57—
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