TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13088287
Played Sep 7Finished
Krzysztof Kapik
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1181210117––––
Mateusz Rutkowski
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:42 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKrzysztof Kapik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKrzysztof Kapik above · Mateusz Rutkowski below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 59 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Krzysztof Kapik at 54.0%
59 points played in total.
H2H Krzysztof Kapik 62–73 Mateusz Rutkowski Krzysztof Kapik has won 62 of their 135 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:42What took a side0 for · 4 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Rutkowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
62-73 in 135
Rutkowski
Wrong
gap of 11 in 135, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kapik 1651 vs Rutkowski 1660
Rutkowski
Wrong
both rated, 10 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kapik 40% vs Rutkowski 60%
Rutkowski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kapik 40% vs Rutkowski 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kapik +1 · Rutkowski -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Rutkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kapik form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKapik 1.91 / Rutkowski 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Rutkowski)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13088287
Kapik1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog47% won 208 of 445
Down 0–1, comes back27% 63 of 235
Down 0–2, comes back5% 5 of 98
Rutkowski1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite69% won 379 of 546
Up 2–0, closes it96% 184 of 191
Up 1–0, closes it89% 302 of 339
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKapik3wins
AwayRutkowski7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderRutkowski leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKapik37.5%3 of 8
AwayRutkowskin = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kapik8Rutkowski2n = 10Kapik took 8 of 10
S2Kapik2Rutkowski8n = 10Rutkowski took 8 of 10
S3Kapik5Rutkowski5n = 10split evenly
S4Kapik3Rutkowski5n = 8Rutkowski took 5 of 8
S5Kapik1Rutkowski4n = 5Rutkowski took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKapikRutkowskiK − RBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match40.442.3−1.9per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKapikRutkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime1118 / 2112 vs 767 / 137052.9%56%1118 / 2112 vs 767 / 1370Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.137.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RutkowskiKapik 1.91/Rutkowski 1.80
Miss
What we said
54%
Rutkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kapik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 1 · 22:50K. Kapik—11511113M. Rutkowski—911951
LJul 1 · 01:10K. Kapik—11711992M. Rutkowski—711611113
LJun 30 · 22:50K. Kapik—11111110102M. Rutkowski—913812123
LJun 29 · 23:15K. Kapik—1154111M. Rutkowski—81111133
LJun 29 · 21:00K. Kapik—78111282M. Rutkowski—1111410113
WJun 25 · 23:15K. Kapik—1411113M. Rutkowski—12670
WJun 25 · 21:00K. Kapik—111183133M. Rutkowski—771111112
LJun 25 · 18:05K. Kapik—121081192M. Rutkowski—1012114113
LJun 23 · 23:15K. Kapik—124981M. Rutkowski—101111113
LJun 23 · 21:00K. Kapik—51270M. Rutkowski—1114113
K. Kapik10
WSep 7 · 18:30K. Strowski1.5781111662K. Kapik2.25118911113WSep 7 · 17:40K. Staszczyk1.8391161182K. Kapik1.83117119113WSep 7 · 15:45K. Kapik2.2512511113K. Glazowski1.571011661LSep 7 · 24:10K. Kapik2.251261081D. Jadam1.57101112113LSep 6 · 23:20K. Kapik1.9161151172F. Mlynarski1.80119115113WSep 6 · 21:50K. Kapik1.441111113A. Wos2.638640LSep 6 · 21:25K. Kapik1.671091181L. Pietraszko2.1012119113WSep 6 · 20:30F. Mlynarski1.8311811382K. Kapik1.83811811113LSep 6 · 19:15K. Kapik2.258911101J. Kuzmicz1.5711115123LSep 6 · 18:05J. Zochniak2.6371111123K. Kapik1.441159101
M. Rutkowski10
WSep 7 · 18:05K. Glazowski1.839111081M. Rutkowski1.8311912113LSep 7 · 15:25K. Strowski1.6111111113M. Rutkowski2.20911341LSep 5 · 01:10M. Rutkowski1.57812111192M. Kolek2.251110139113WSep 5 · 24:20M. Rutkowski1.801413113P. Jendrzejewski1.91121150WSep 4 · 22:50M. Rutkowski1.731111113J. Kuzmicz2.009680WSep 4 · 22:30M. Rutkowski1.731111113T. Filbrandt2.007380LSep 4 · 21:45P. Jendrzejewski1.801111113M. Rutkowski1.919550WSep 4 · 20:30M. Rutkowski1.57101211113M. Kolek2.251210961LSep 4 · 19:15K. Kolodziej1.361311113M. Rutkowski3.0011610WSep 4 · 18:05T. Filbrandt2.101191171M. Rutkowski1.6771113113
Upcoming Matches
K. Kapik2 of 10 neutral
Sep 7 · 20:05K. Kapik1.57K. Kostyk2.25—Sep 7 · 21:25K. Kapik1.91M. Rutkowski1.80—Sep 7 · 22:10K. Kapik1.80K. Staszczyk1.91—Sep 7 · 22:55K. Kapik1.57K. Kostyk2.25—Sep 8 · 24:35K. Kapik1.30B. Sulkowski3.40—Sep 8 · 15:25K. Kapik—A. Daniel——Sep 8 · 16:55K. Kapik—L. Pietraszko——Sep 8 · 18:05K. Kapik—K. Glazowski——Sep 8 · 19:15K. Kapik—M. Rutkowski——Sep 8 · 20:30K. Kapik—K. Kostyk——
M. Rutkowski3 of 10 neutral
Sep 7 · 19:15M. Rutkowski1.40K. Kostyk2.75—Sep 7 · 20:30M. Rutkowski2.00K. Staszczyk1.73—Sep 7 · 21:25M. Rutkowski1.80K. Kapik1.91—Sep 7 · 21:50M. Rutkowski1.17B. Sulkowski4.50—Sep 7 · 23:20M. Rutkowski2.00K. Staszczyk1.73—Sep 8 · 24:10M. Rutkowski1.40K. Kostyk2.75—Sep 8 · 15:00M. Rutkowski—K. Kostyk——Sep 8 · 16:30M. Rutkowski—K. Glazowski——Sep 8 · 17:20M. Rutkowski—A. Daniel——Sep 8 · 19:15M. Rutkowski—K. Kapik——
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