TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13088288
Played Sep 7Finished
Krzysztof Kapik
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1210511116116––
Kacper Glazowski
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:43 and never touched — 57.3% is still 57.3%
Graded at full timeKrzysztof Kapik to win
57.3%
57.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKrzysztof Kapik above · Kacper Glazowski below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 72 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Krzysztof Kapik at 57.3%
72 points played in total.
H2H Krzysztof Kapik 18–10 Kacper Glazowski Kacper Glazowski has won 10 of their 28 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:43What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Glazowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-10 in 28
Kapik
Correct
gap of 8 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kapik 1683 vs Glazowski 1705
Glazowski
Wrong
both rated, 22 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kapik 40% vs Glazowski 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kapik 30% vs Glazowski 60%
Glazowski
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kapik -2 · Glazowski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Glazowski) · live re-read · sealed at 43% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Glazowski form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKapik 2.25 / Glazowski 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Glazowski)+0.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13088288
Kapik2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog47% won 208 of 445
Down 0–1, comes back27% 63 of 235
Down 0–2, comes back5% 5 of 98
Glazowski1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 134 of 203
Up 2–0, closes it98% 61 of 62
Up 1–0, closes it82% 112 of 136
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKapik6wins
AwayGlazowski4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKapik leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKapikn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayGlazowski50%4 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kapik2Glazowski8n = 10Glazowski took 8 of 10
S2Kapik6Glazowski4n = 10Kapik took 6 of 10
S3Kapik9Glazowski1n = 10Kapik took 9 of 10
S4Kapik5Glazowski4n = 9Kapik took 5 of 9
S5Kapik2Glazowski2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKapikGlazowskiK − GBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match42.338.6+3.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKapikGlazowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime1121 / 2112 vs 491 / 100553.1%48.9%1121 / 2112 vs 491 / 1005Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.137.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GlazowskiKapik 2.25/Glazowski 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Glazowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kapik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 31 · 13:25K. Kapik—711127143K. Glazowski—1161011122
WAug 17 · 13:00K. Kapik—911118113K. Glazowski—11881182
LAug 11 · 18:50K. Kapik—69111172K. Glazowski—111169113
WJul 28 · 14:15K. Kapik—71112113K. Glazowski—1161061
WMay 25 · 13:35K. Kapik—101111113K. Glazowski—125951
LMay 25 · 03:55K. Kapik—81171152K. Glazowski—118115113
LJan 26 · 11:40K. Kapik—1291161K. Glazowski—14118113
LDec 10 · 13:20K. Kapik—981191K. Glazowski—11117113
WNov 26 · 24:50K. Kapik—1111113K. Glazowski—5460
WNov 25 · 22:30K. Kapik—111111113K. Glazowski—713761
K. Kapik10
WSep 8 · 18:05K. Glazowski1.5311414582K. Kapik2.388111211113LSep 8 · 16:55L. Pietraszko2.10631111113K. Kapik1.6711116982LSep 8 · 15:25A. Daniel1.611181111113K. Kapik2.2013119452WSep 8 · 24:35B. Sulkowski3.75811781K. Kapik1.2511211113WSep 7 · 22:55K. Kostyk2.63149971K. Kapik1.44121111113WSep 7 · 22:10K. Staszczyk1.9191190K. Kapik1.801113113LSep 7 · 21:25M. Rutkowski1.73714413113K. Kapik2.001112111182WSep 7 · 20:05K. Kapik1.57811119123K. Kostyk2.25117911102WSep 7 · 18:30K. Strowski1.5781111662K. Kapik2.25118911113WSep 7 · 17:40K. Staszczyk1.8391161182K. Kapik1.83117119113
K. Glazowski10
WSep 8 · 18:50K. Kostyk3.751111361K. Glazowski1.2513611113LSep 8 · 18:05K. Glazowski1.5311414582K. Kapik2.388111211113LSep 8 · 16:30K. Glazowski1.73101151162M. Rutkowski2.00128117113WSep 8 · 15:45L. Pietraszko3.0021140K. Glazowski1.361113113WSep 8 · 14:35K. Glazowski1.86101111113A. Daniel1.80128581WSep 8 · 13:00K. Glazowski1.90101111123M. Sklensky1.741279101WSep 8 · 11:45K. Glazowski1.8311119113J. Kuzmicz1.83881181WSep 8 · 10:05K. Glazowski1.5711811113G. Poliniewicz2.16611991LSep 8 · 09:00K. Glazowski1.5511713582K. Wisniewski2.205111111113LSep 7 · 19:40K. Strowski1.911251012113K. Glazowski1.801011121082
Upcoming Matches
K. Kapik3 of 9 neutral
Sep 8 · 20:30K. Kapik1.44K. Kostyk2.63—Sep 8 · 21:25K. Kapik1.73L. Pietraszko2.00—Sep 8 · 21:50K. Kapik2.00K. Staszczyk1.73—Sep 8 · 23:20K. Kapik1.44K. Kostyk2.63—Sep 9 · 24:10K. Kapik2.00M. Rutkowski1.73—Sep 9 · 21:00K. Kapik—J. Chmielowski——Sep 9 · 22:10K. Kapik—M. Olbrycht——Sep 9 · 22:35K. Kapik—K. Staszczyk——Sep 9 · 23:20K. Kapik—M. Rutkowski——
K. Glazowski
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