TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13088280
Played Sep 8Finished
Bartosz Sulkowski
Home
3.75
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811112711811––
Krzysztof Kapik
Away
1.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:33 and never touched — 66.4% is still 66.4%
Graded at full timeKrzysztof Kapik to win
66.4%
66.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingBartosz Sulkowski above · Krzysztof Kapik below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 69 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Krzysztof Kapik at 66.4%
69 points played in total.
H2H Bartosz Sulkowski 3–16 Krzysztof Kapik Bartosz Sulkowski has won 3 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:33What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Kapik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-16 in 19
Kapik
Correct
gap of 13 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sulkowski 1411 vs Kapik 1707
Kapik
Correct
both rated, 296 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sulkowski 40% vs Kapik 80%
Kapik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sulkowski 50% vs Kapik 70%
Kapik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sulkowski -3 · Kapik +2
Sulkowski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 81% — Strong (leans Kapik) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sulkowski form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (27%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSulkowski 3.75 / Kapik 1.25
Signal prob.19% / 81%
Edge (Kapik)+6.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13088280
Sulkowski3.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog32% won 164 of 510
Down 0–1, comes back17% 51 of 293
Down 0–2, comes back2% 3 of 137
Kapik1.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite62% won 258 of 415
Up 2–0, closes it97% 132 of 136
Up 1–0, closes it79% 178 of 226
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSulkowski3wins
AwayKapik7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKapik leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSulkowski60%3 of 5
AwayKapik100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sulkowski5Kapik5n = 10split evenly
S2Sulkowski1Kapik9n = 10Kapik took 9 of 10
S3Sulkowski5Kapik5n = 10split evenly
S4Sulkowski2Kapik4n = 6Kapik took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSulkowskiKapikS − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match31.937.1−5.2per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSulkowskiKapikBasisWin rate · lifetime540 / 1224 vs 1122 / 211244.1%53.1%540 / 1224 vs 1122 / 2112Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.539.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KapikSulkowski 3.75/Kapik 1.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
81.3%
Kapik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kapik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WMay 25 · 04:35B. Sulkowski—1111113K. Kapik—7770
WMay 20 · 24:15B. Sulkowski—136511113K. Kapik—111111672
LMay 19 · 21:50B. Sulkowski—6810K. Kapik—1111113
LMay 14 · 23:50B. Sulkowski—8670K. Kapik—1111113
LMay 14 · 21:30B. Sulkowski—1041171K. Kapik—12115113
LMay 14 · 19:25B. Sulkowski—9650K. Kapik—1111113
LMay 7 · 18:15B. Sulkowski—1171171K. Kapik—31113113
WMay 6 · 17:25B. Sulkowski—11611113K. Kapik—711581
LApr 30 · 17:00B. Sulkowski—611171K. Kapik—11117113
LApr 25 · 13:35B. Sulkowski—111711852K. Kapik—819811113
B. Sulkowski10
WSep 8 · 14:40S. Brud1.60611961B. Sulkowski2.1511711113LSep 8 · 13:30B. Sulkowski1.7431151182A. Myszewski1.95115116113LSep 8 · 12:15A. Sobel1.60111110113B. Sulkowski2.15961261WSep 8 · 11:00A. Lilien1.8010911111B. Sulkowski1.9012116133WSep 8 · 09:25J. Glanowski1.87118781B. Sulkowski1.8351111113LSep 7 · 23:45K. Kostyk1.5011411113B. Sulkowski2.50511591LSep 7 · 22:35B. Sulkowski3.5095100K. Staszczyk1.281111123LSep 7 · 21:50M. Rutkowski1.171111113B. Sulkowski4.507880WSep 7 · 24:35A. Linek1.97136681B. Sulkowski1.71111111113WSep 6 · 22:55A. Lilien1.66511961B. Sulkowski2.0511711113
K. Kapik10
LSep 9 · 24:10K. Kapik2.0091170M. Rutkowski1.731113113WSep 8 · 23:20K. Kapik1.441111113K. Kostyk2.636370WSep 8 · 21:50K. Kapik2.00111011113K. Staszczyk1.73912871WSep 8 · 21:25K. Kapik1.73111311113L. Pietraszko2.00815571LSep 8 · 20:30K. Kostyk2.631111113K. Kapik1.448870WSep 8 · 19:15K. Kapik2.001111113M. Rutkowski1.736980WSep 8 · 18:05K. Glazowski1.5311414582K. Kapik2.388111211113LSep 8 · 16:55L. Pietraszko2.10631111113K. Kapik1.6711116982LSep 8 · 15:25A. Daniel1.611181111113K. Kapik2.2013119452WSep 7 · 22:55K. Kostyk2.63149971K. Kapik1.44121111113
Upcoming Matches
B. Sulkowski
K. Kapik3 of 4 neutral
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