TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13093449
Played Sep 8Finished
Kamil Kostyk
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118118117––––
Krzysztof Kapik
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:09 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKamil Kostyk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKamil Kostyk above · Krzysztof Kapik below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 56 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Kamil Kostyk at 54.0%
56 points played in total.
H2H Kamil Kostyk 1–2 Krzysztof Kapik Kamil Kostyk has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:09What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Kapik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kostyk 1426 vs Kapik 1719
Kapik
Wrong
both rated, 293 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kostyk 0% vs Kapik 60%
Kapik
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kostyk 10% vs Kapik 70%
Kapik
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kostyk -5 · Kapik +2
Kostyk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Kapik) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kostyk form (0%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKostyk 2.63 / Kapik 1.44
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Kapik)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13093449
Kostyk2.63
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog35% won 46 of 130
Down 0–1, comes back21% 16 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 42
Kapik1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 260 of 413
Up 2–0, closes it97% 131 of 135
Up 1–0, closes it79% 178 of 225
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeKostyk1wins
AwayKapik2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderKapik leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kostyk1Kapik2n = 3Kapik took 2 of 3
S2Kostyk0Kapik3n = 3Kapik took 3 of 3
S3Kostyk0Kapik3n = 3Kapik took 3 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away267%
These 3 meetings
MetricKostykKapikKostyk − KapikBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match30.037.0−7.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKostykKapikBasisWin rate · lifetime218 / 432 vs 1122 / 210950.5%53.2%218 / 432 vs 1122 / 2109Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.139.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KapikKostyk 2.63/Kapik 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.3%
Kapik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kostyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LJul 27 · 13:25K. Kostyk—7870K. Kapik—1111113
WJun 22 · 24:20K. Kostyk—118711113K. Kapik—91111862
LJun 21 · 22:05K. Kostyk—7580K. Kapik—1111113
K. Kostyk10
LSep 8 · 21:00M. Rutkowski1.5011118113K. Kostyk2.50761111LSep 8 · 18:50K. Kostyk3.751111361K. Glazowski1.2513611113LSep 8 · 17:40K. Kostyk2.2081313852L. Pietraszko1.6111111111113LSep 8 · 16:05K. Kostyk2.75881161A. Daniel1.4011117113LSep 8 · 15:00K. Kostyk2.25610100M. Rutkowski1.571112123LSep 8 · 24:10M. Rutkowski1.501111143K. Kostyk2.5097120WSep 7 · 23:45K. Kostyk1.5011411113B. Sulkowski2.50511591LSep 7 · 22:55K. Kostyk2.63149971K. Kapik1.44121111113LSep 7 · 21:00K. Kostyk2.2071181862K. Staszczyk1.611161116113LSep 7 · 20:05K. Kapik1.57811119123K. Kostyk2.25117911102
K. Kapik10
WSep 8 · 21:25K. Kapik1.73111311113L. Pietraszko2.00815571WSep 8 · 19:15K. Kapik2.001111113M. Rutkowski1.736980WSep 8 · 18:05K. Glazowski1.5311414582K. Kapik2.388111211113LSep 8 · 16:55L. Pietraszko2.10631111113K. Kapik1.6711116982LSep 8 · 15:25A. Daniel1.611181111113K. Kapik2.2013119452WSep 8 · 24:35B. Sulkowski3.75811781K. Kapik1.2511211113WSep 7 · 22:55K. Kostyk2.63149971K. Kapik1.44121111113WSep 7 · 22:10K. Staszczyk1.9191190K. Kapik1.801113113LSep 7 · 21:25M. Rutkowski1.73714413113K. Kapik2.001112111182WSep 7 · 20:05K. Kapik1.57811119123K. Kostyk2.25117911102
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