TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13093648
Played Sep 8Finished
Krzysztof Kapik
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1181315115117––
Lukasz Pietraszko
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:03 and never touched — 55.1% is still 55.1%
Graded at full timeLukasz Pietraszko to win
55.1%
55.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKrzysztof Kapik above · Lukasz Pietraszko below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 13-15
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 81 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Lukasz Pietraszko at 55.1%
81 points played in total.
H2H Krzysztof Kapik 11–11 Lukasz Pietraszko Dead even across their 22 meetings.
Last 10 · 3–7Head to head
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Pietraszko beat Kapik 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:03What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kapik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-11 in 22
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kapik 1694 vs Pietraszko 1718
Pietraszko
Wrong
both rated, 24 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kapik 40% vs Pietraszko 60%
Pietraszko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kapik 60% vs Pietraszko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kapik -1 · Pietraszko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kapik) · live re-read · sealed at 45% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kapik form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKapik 1.73 / Pietraszko 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kapik)+0.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13093648
Kapik1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 260 of 413
Up 2–0, closes it97% 131 of 135
Up 1–0, closes it79% 178 of 225
Pietraszko2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 102 of 267
Down 0–1, comes back19% 29 of 151
Down 0–2, comes back9% 8 of 91
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKapik3wins
AwayPietraszko7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPietraszko leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKapik40%2 of 5
AwayPietraszko80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kapik5Pietraszko5n = 10split evenly
S2Kapik3Pietraszko7n = 10Pietraszko took 7 of 10
S3Kapik3Pietraszko7n = 10Pietraszko took 7 of 10
S4Kapik2Pietraszko6n = 8Pietraszko took 6 of 8
S5Kapik2Pietraszko1n = 3Kapik took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKapikPietraszkoK − PBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.942.2−3.3per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKapikPietraszkoBasisWin rate · lifetime1121 / 2109 vs 427 / 85053.2%50.2%1121 / 2109 vs 427 / 850Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.138.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KapikKapik 1.73/Pietraszko 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kapik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kapik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 21:25K. Kapik—1091181L. Pietraszko—12119113
LSep 6 · 16:55K. Kapik—62100L. Pietraszko—1111123
WSep 2 · 15:00K. Kapik—13911113L. Pietraszko—1111871
WAug 12 · 22:10K. Kapik—11111011113L. Pietraszko—13712882
LAug 12 · 18:50K. Kapik—10990L. Pietraszko—1211113
LJul 29 · 19:40K. Kapik—113891L. Pietraszko—91111113
LJul 23 · 15:45K. Kapik—111181092L. Pietraszko—661112113
LJul 20 · 16:30K. Kapik—1113261L. Pietraszko—61511113
WJul 15 · 23:35K. Kapik—1111718123L. Pietraszko—491120102
LJul 15 · 21:20K. Kapik—1081171L. Pietraszko—12117113
K. Kapik10
WSep 8 · 21:50K. Kapik2.00111011113K. Staszczyk1.73912871LSep 8 · 20:30K. Kostyk2.631111113K. Kapik1.448870WSep 8 · 19:15K. Kapik2.001111113M. Rutkowski1.736980WSep 8 · 18:05K. Glazowski1.5311414582K. Kapik2.388111211113LSep 8 · 16:55L. Pietraszko2.10631111113K. Kapik1.6711116982LSep 8 · 15:25A. Daniel1.611181111113K. Kapik2.2013119452WSep 8 · 24:35B. Sulkowski3.75811781K. Kapik1.2511211113WSep 7 · 22:55K. Kostyk2.63149971K. Kapik1.44121111113WSep 7 · 22:10K. Staszczyk1.9191190K. Kapik1.801113113LSep 7 · 21:25M. Rutkowski1.73714413113K. Kapik2.001112111182
L. Pietraszko10
WSep 8 · 22:10K. Kostyk2.0081111482L. Pietraszko1.73119911113LSep 8 · 20:05L. Pietraszko3.0081151162M. Rutkowski1.36119117113WSep 8 · 18:30A. Daniel1.33851171L. Pietraszko3.2511117113WSep 8 · 17:40K. Kostyk2.2081313852L. Pietraszko1.6111111111113WSep 8 · 16:55L. Pietraszko2.10631111113K. Kapik1.6711116982LSep 8 · 15:45L. Pietraszko3.0021140K. Glazowski1.361113113WSep 7 · 24:35A. Wos2.201121111102L. Pietraszko1.61811613123LSep 6 · 22:55D. Jadam1.67115811113L. Pietraszko2.1091111792WSep 6 · 22:10F. Mlynarski1.501156101L. Pietraszko2.5071111123WSep 6 · 21:25K. Kapik1.671091181L. Pietraszko2.1012119113
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