TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13093446
Played Sep 8Finished
Kamil Kostyk
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811119119411811
Lukasz Pietraszko
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:08 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukasz Pietraszko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKamil Kostyk above · Lukasz Pietraszko below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 93 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Lukasz Pietraszko at 54.0%
93 points played in total.
H2H Kamil Kostyk 3–5 Lukasz Pietraszko Kamil Kostyk has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Pietraszko beat Kostyk 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:08What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Pietraszko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-5 in 8
Pietraszko
Correct
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kostyk 1438 vs Pietraszko 1713
Pietraszko
Correct
both rated, 275 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kostyk 20% vs Pietraszko 60%
Pietraszko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kostyk 20% vs Pietraszko 60%
Pietraszko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kostyk -1 · Pietraszko -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Pietraszko) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kostyk form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKostyk 2.00 / Pietraszko 1.73
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Pietraszko)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13093446
Kostyk2.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog35% won 46 of 130
Down 0–1, comes back21% 16 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 42
Pietraszko1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite65% won 126 of 194
Up 2–0, closes it92% 59 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it80% 90 of 112
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeKostyk3wins
AwayPietraszko5wins
5 of 8 to a deciderPietraszko leads 5–3, and 5 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKostykn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayPietraszko66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kostyk2Pietraszko6n = 8Pietraszko took 6 of 8
S2Kostyk4Pietraszko4n = 8split evenly
S3Kostyk6Pietraszko2n = 8Kostyk took 6 of 8
S4Kostyk2Pietraszko5n = 7Pietraszko took 5 of 7
S5Kostyk2Pietraszko3n = 5Pietraszko took 3 of 5
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away338%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricKostykPietraszkoK − PBasisWins35−2in 8 meetingsFirst set26−4of 8Avg pointsper match41.546.6−5.1per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKostykPietraszkoBasisWin rate · lifetime219 / 435 vs 428 / 85250.3%50.2%219 / 435 vs 428 / 852Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PietraszkoKostyk 2.00/Pietraszko 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.9%
Pietraszko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Pietraszko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 8 · 22:10K. Kostyk—81111482L. Pietraszko—119911113
LSep 8 · 17:40K. Kostyk—81313852L. Pietraszko—11111111113
WJun 21 · 23:35K. Kostyk—311126133L. Pietraszko—1191011112
LJun 21 · 21:20K. Kostyk—119136142L. Pietraszko—7111111163
LJun 21 · 18:50K. Kostyk—671291L. Pietraszko—111110113
WMar 30 · 20:05K. Kostyk—691111123L. Pietraszko—111178102
WMar 30 · 09:25K. Kostyk—111110143L. Pietraszko—6612121
LMar 30 · 06:55K. Kostyk—1870L. Pietraszko—1111113
K. Kostyk10
LSep 8 · 23:20K. Kapik1.441111113K. Kostyk2.636370LSep 8 · 22:35K. Staszczyk1.539111511113K. Kostyk2.3811517482LSep 8 · 21:00M. Rutkowski1.5011118113K. Kostyk2.50761111WSep 8 · 20:30K. Kostyk2.631111113K. Kapik1.448870LSep 8 · 18:50K. Kostyk3.751111361K. Glazowski1.2513611113LSep 8 · 17:40K. Kostyk2.2081313852L. Pietraszko1.6111111111113LSep 8 · 16:05K. Kostyk2.75881161A. Daniel1.4011117113LSep 8 · 15:00K. Kostyk2.25610100M. Rutkowski1.571112123LSep 8 · 24:10M. Rutkowski1.501111143K. Kostyk2.5097120WSep 7 · 23:45K. Kostyk1.5011411113B. Sulkowski2.50511591
L. Pietraszko10
WSep 8 · 22:55M. Rutkowski1.44118971L. Pietraszko2.6381111113LSep 8 · 21:25K. Kapik1.73111311113L. Pietraszko2.00815571LSep 8 · 20:05L. Pietraszko3.0081151162M. Rutkowski1.36119117113WSep 8 · 18:30A. Daniel1.33851171L. Pietraszko3.2511117113WSep 8 · 17:40K. Kostyk2.2081313852L. Pietraszko1.6111111111113WSep 8 · 16:55L. Pietraszko2.10631111113K. Kapik1.6711116982LSep 8 · 15:45L. Pietraszko3.0021140K. Glazowski1.361113113WSep 7 · 24:35A. Wos2.201121111102L. Pietraszko1.61811613123LSep 6 · 22:55D. Jadam1.67115811113L. Pietraszko2.1091111792WSep 6 · 22:10F. Mlynarski1.501156101L. Pietraszko2.5071111123
Upcoming Matches
K. Kostyk
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L. Pietraszko
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