TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13093452
Played Sep 8Finished
Kamil Kostyk
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811811117611––
Artur Daniel
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:10 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeArtur Daniel to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKamil Kostyk above · Artur Daniel below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 73 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Artur Daniel at 54.5%
73 points played in total.
H2H Kamil Kostyk 1–2 Artur Daniel Kamil Kostyk has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:10What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Daniel
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kostyk 1440 vs Daniel 1767
Daniel
Correct
both rated, 326 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kostyk 20% vs Daniel 60%
Daniel
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kostyk 20% vs Daniel 50%
Daniel
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kostyk -2 · Daniel +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Daniel) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Daniel form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKostyk 2.75 / Daniel 1.40
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Daniel)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13093452
Kostyk2.75
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 46 of 130
Down 0–1, comes back21% 16 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 42
Daniel1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 206 of 342
Up 2–0, closes it94% 104 of 111
Up 1–0, closes it76% 158 of 208
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeKostyk1wins
AwayDaniel2wins
Daniel leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kostyk1Daniel2n = 3Daniel took 2 of 3
S2Kostyk0Daniel3n = 3Daniel took 3 of 3
S3Kostyk1Daniel2n = 3Daniel took 2 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away267%
These 3 meetings
MetricKostykDanielK − DBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match29.034.0−5.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKostykDanielBasisWin rate · lifetime218 / 429 vs 777 / 146150.8%53.2%218 / 429 vs 777 / 1461Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DanielKostyk 2.75/Daniel 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.1%
Daniel · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Daniel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WJul 24 · 11:45K. Kostyk—11511113A. Daniel—911791
LJan 18 · 10:55K. Kostyk—9970A. Daniel—1111113
LNov 22 · 14:10K. Kostyk—9960A. Daniel—1111113
K. Kostyk10
LSep 8 · 15:00K. Kostyk2.25610100M. Rutkowski1.571112123LSep 8 · 24:10M. Rutkowski1.501111143K. Kostyk2.5097120WSep 7 · 23:45K. Kostyk1.5011411113B. Sulkowski2.50511591LSep 7 · 22:55K. Kostyk2.63149971K. Kapik1.44121111113LSep 7 · 21:00K. Kostyk2.2071181862K. Staszczyk1.611161116113LSep 7 · 20:05K. Kapik1.57811119123K. Kostyk2.25117911102LSep 7 · 19:15M. Rutkowski1.401111113K. Kostyk2.759980LSep 7 · 17:20K. Strowski1.221111811113K. Kostyk4.0049111332LSep 7 · 16:30K. Glazowski1.2811911113K. Kostyk3.50611541WSep 7 · 15:00K. Staszczyk1.6154110K. Kostyk2.201111133
A. Daniel10
LSep 8 · 17:20A. Daniel1.611198121M. Rutkowski2.2081111143WSep 8 · 15:25A. Daniel1.611181111113K. Kapik2.2013119452LSep 8 · 14:35K. Glazowski1.86101111113A. Daniel1.80128581WSep 8 · 13:25A. Daniel1.5441111113K. Wisniewski2.22116761LSep 8 · 12:10M. Sklensky1.811211113A. Daniel1.8310970WSep 8 · 10:55J. Kuzmicz1.9011711792A. Daniel1.76911711113LSep 8 · 09:20G. Poliniewicz2.101151211113A. Daniel1.6041114842WSep 4 · 21:00A. Daniel2.10581211113K. Kolodziej1.67111110592LSep 4 · 19:40A. Daniel1.3311114992T. Filbrandt3.25651111113LSep 4 · 18:30A. Daniel1.30123561M. Kolek3.40101111113
Upcoming Matches
K. Kostyk
A. Daniel5 of 10 neutral
Sep 8 · 18:30A. Daniel1.33L. Pietraszko3.25—Sep 8 · 19:40A. Daniel1.61K. Glazowski2.20—Sep 9 · 09:00A. Daniel—K. Wisniewski——Sep 9 · 10:05A. Daniel—T. Spanik——Sep 9 · 11:45A. Daniel—J. Braun——Sep 9 · 13:00A. Daniel—J. Kuzmicz——Sep 9 · 14:35A. Daniel—M. Benes——Sep 9 · 15:25A. Daniel—J. Krawczyk——Sep 9 · 16:05A. Daniel—J. Chmielowski——Sep 9 · 17:20A. Daniel—J. Braun——
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