TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13093453
Played Sep 8Finished
Kamil Kostyk
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
61110121012––––
Mateusz Rutkowski
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:10 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeMateusz Rutkowski to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKamil Kostyk above · Mateusz Rutkowski below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 10-12
Point 61 set 3, 10-12 — our read held Mateusz Rutkowski at 54.5%
61 points played in total.
H2H Kamil Kostyk 1–2 Mateusz Rutkowski Kamil Kostyk has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:10What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Rutkowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kostyk 1446 vs Rutkowski 1698
Rutkowski
Correct
both rated, 251 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kostyk 20% vs Rutkowski 80%
Rutkowski
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kostyk 30% vs Rutkowski 60%
Rutkowski
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kostyk -1 · Rutkowski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Rutkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rutkowski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKostyk 2.25 / Rutkowski 1.57
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Rutkowski)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13093453
Kostyk2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 46 of 130
Down 0–1, comes back21% 16 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 42
Rutkowski1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite69% won 378 of 546
Up 2–0, closes it96% 187 of 194
Up 1–0, closes it89% 301 of 338
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeKostyk1wins
AwayRutkowski2wins
Rutkowski leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kostyk1Rutkowski2n = 3Rutkowski took 2 of 3
S2Kostyk2Rutkowski1n = 3Kostyk took 2 of 3
S3Kostyk1Rutkowski2n = 3Rutkowski took 2 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricKostykRutkowskiK − RBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match29.333.0−3.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKostykRutkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime218 / 428 vs 773 / 137850.9%56.1%218 / 428 vs 773 / 1378Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RutkowskiKostyk 2.25/Rutkowski 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.7%
Rutkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Rutkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 7 · 19:15K. Kostyk—9980M. Rutkowski—1111113
WJun 21 · 15:00K. Kostyk—1114113M. Rutkowski—41280
LMay 9 · 17:30K. Kostyk—511911M. Rutkowski—11911113
K. Kostyk10
LSep 8 · 24:10M. Rutkowski1.501111143K. Kostyk2.5097120WSep 7 · 23:45K. Kostyk1.5011411113B. Sulkowski2.50511591LSep 7 · 22:55K. Kostyk2.63149971K. Kapik1.44121111113LSep 7 · 21:00K. Kostyk2.2071181862K. Staszczyk1.611161116113LSep 7 · 20:05K. Kapik1.57811119123K. Kostyk2.25117911102LSep 7 · 19:15M. Rutkowski1.401111113K. Kostyk2.759980LSep 7 · 17:20K. Strowski1.221111811113K. Kostyk4.0049111332LSep 7 · 16:30K. Glazowski1.2811911113K. Kostyk3.50611541WSep 7 · 15:00K. Staszczyk1.6154110K. Kostyk2.201111133WAug 16 · 23:20B. Mleczko1.85112651K. Kostyk1.8591111113
M. Rutkowski10
WSep 8 · 24:10M. Rutkowski1.501111143K. Kostyk2.5097120LSep 7 · 23:20M. Rutkowski2.00911101562K. Staszczyk1.731181213113WSep 7 · 21:50M. Rutkowski1.171111113B. Sulkowski4.507880WSep 7 · 21:25M. Rutkowski1.73714413113K. Kapik2.001112111182WSep 7 · 20:30K. Staszczyk1.73781111112M. Rutkowski2.00111168133WSep 7 · 19:15M. Rutkowski1.401111113K. Kostyk2.759980WSep 7 · 18:05K. Glazowski1.839111081M. Rutkowski1.8311912113LSep 7 · 16:55K. Kapik1.911112113M. Rutkowski1.8081070LSep 7 · 15:25K. Strowski1.6111111113M. Rutkowski2.20911341LSep 5 · 01:10M. Rutkowski1.57812111192M. Kolek2.251110139113
Upcoming Matches
K. Kostyk
M. Rutkowski2 of 10 neutral
Sep 8 · 16:30M. Rutkowski2.00K. Glazowski1.73—Sep 8 · 17:20M. Rutkowski2.20A. Daniel1.61—Sep 8 · 19:15M. Rutkowski1.72K. Kapik1.93—Sep 8 · 20:05M. Rutkowski1.38L. Pietraszko2.65—Sep 8 · 21:00M. Rutkowski1.42K. Kostyk2.55—Sep 8 · 22:55M. Rutkowski1.36L. Pietraszko3.00—Sep 8 · 23:45M. Rutkowski1.83K. Staszczyk1.83—Sep 9 · 24:10M. Rutkowski1.83K. Kapik1.83—Sep 9 · 21:25M. Rutkowski—M. Olbrycht——Sep 9 · 21:50M. Rutkowski—K. Staszczyk——
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