TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13091620
Played Sep 7Finished
Konrad Staszczyk
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
7118111161181113
Mateusz Rutkowski
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:39 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMateusz Rutkowski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKonrad Staszczyk above · Mateusz Rutkowski below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-13
Point 97 set 5, 11-13 — our read held Mateusz Rutkowski at 54.0%
97 points played in total.
H2H Konrad Staszczyk 10–7 Mateusz Rutkowski Mateusz Rutkowski has won 7 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:39What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Staszczyk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-7 in 17
Staszczyk
Wrong
gap of 3 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Staszczyk 1594 vs Rutkowski 1668
Rutkowski
Correct
both rated, 74 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Staszczyk 40% vs Rutkowski 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Staszczyk 30% vs Rutkowski 60%
Rutkowski
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Staszczyk +1 · Rutkowski +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Staszczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Staszczyk form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStaszczyk 1.73 / Rutkowski 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Staszczyk)+0.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13091620
Staszczyk1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite64% won 144 of 226
Up 2–0, closes it86% 57 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it82% 103 of 125
Rutkowski2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 164 of 376
Down 0–1, comes back22% 47 of 212
Down 0–2, comes back7% 7 of 100
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStaszczyk6wins
AwayRutkowski4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderStaszczyk leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStaszczyk100%4 of 4
AwayRutkowski66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Staszczyk4Rutkowski6n = 10Rutkowski took 6 of 10
S2Staszczyk5Rutkowski5n = 10split evenly
S3Staszczyk4Rutkowski6n = 10Rutkowski took 6 of 10
S4Staszczyk4Rutkowski2n = 6Staszczyk took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricStaszczykRutkowskiS − RBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.736.9−1.2per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStaszczykRutkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime175 / 308 vs 769 / 137356.8%56%175 / 308 vs 769 / 1373Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StaszczykStaszczyk 1.73/Rutkowski 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Staszczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Rutkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 9 · 18:30K. Staszczyk—81311113M. Rutkowski—1111591
LAug 8 · 19:40K. Staszczyk—9350M. Rutkowski—1111113
WJul 16 · 18:50K. Staszczyk—1211113M. Rutkowski—10960
WJul 13 · 01:10K. Staszczyk—71111113M. Rutkowski—116881
WJul 12 · 22:50K. Staszczyk—119511113M. Rutkowski—81111792
LJun 8 · 02:20K. Staszczyk—611881M. Rutkowski—11611113
WJun 7 · 23:55K. Staszczyk—121111113M. Rutkowski—1081361
LJun 7 · 01:35K. Staszczyk—5770M. Rutkowski—1111113
WJun 6 · 23:05K. Staszczyk—1181610113M. Rutkowski—911141282
LJun 6 · 17:55K. Staszczyk—6890M. Rutkowski—1111113
K. Staszczyk10
WSep 7 · 21:00K. Kostyk2.2071181862K. Staszczyk1.611161116113WSep 7 · 18:50K. Staszczyk2.50111387113K. Glazowski1.50911111182LSep 7 · 17:40K. Staszczyk1.8391161182K. Kapik1.83117119113LSep 7 · 16:05K. Staszczyk3.50561131K. Strowski1.2811114113LSep 7 · 15:00K. Staszczyk1.6154110K. Kostyk2.201111133WAug 19 · 24:35D. Solilo3.00106100K. Staszczyk1.361211123LAug 18 · 22:55M. Rutkowski1.9111117113K. Staszczyk1.80851151WAug 18 · 22:10J. Kuzmicz1.441151091K. Staszczyk2.6351112113LAug 18 · 21:25M. Olbrycht2.331311113K. Staszczyk1.5111880LAug 18 · 20:05K. Staszczyk2.20511471K. Glazowski1.6111911113
M. Rutkowski10
WSep 7 · 21:25M. Rutkowski1.73714413113K. Kapik2.001112111182WSep 7 · 19:15M. Rutkowski1.401111113K. Kostyk2.759980WSep 7 · 18:05K. Glazowski1.839111081M. Rutkowski1.8311912113LSep 7 · 16:55K. Kapik1.911112113M. Rutkowski1.8081070LSep 7 · 15:25K. Strowski1.6111111113M. Rutkowski2.20911341LSep 5 · 01:10M. Rutkowski1.57812111192M. Kolek2.251110139113WSep 5 · 24:20M. Rutkowski1.801413113P. Jendrzejewski1.91121150WSep 4 · 22:50M. Rutkowski1.731111113J. Kuzmicz2.009680WSep 4 · 22:30M. Rutkowski1.731111113T. Filbrandt2.007380WAug 18 · 22:55M. Rutkowski1.9111117113K. Staszczyk1.80851151
Upcoming Matches
K. Staszczyk2 of 7 neutral
M. Rutkowski3 of 10 neutral
Sep 7 · 23:20M. Rutkowski2.00K. Staszczyk1.73—Sep 8 · 24:10M. Rutkowski1.50K. Kostyk2.50—Sep 8 · 15:00M. Rutkowski—K. Kostyk——Sep 8 · 16:30M. Rutkowski—K. Glazowski——Sep 8 · 17:20M. Rutkowski—A. Daniel——Sep 8 · 19:15M. Rutkowski—K. Kapik——Sep 8 · 20:05M. Rutkowski—L. Pietraszko——Sep 8 · 21:00M. Rutkowski—K. Kostyk——Sep 8 · 22:55M. Rutkowski—L. Pietraszko——Sep 8 · 23:45M. Rutkowski—K. Staszczyk——
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