TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #12450446
Played Aug 18Finished
Mateusz Rutkowski
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118115711115––
Konrad Staszczyk
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 8Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 8
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:11 and never touched — 55.4% is still 55.4%
Graded at full timeKonrad Staszczyk to win
55.4%
55.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMateusz Rutkowski above · Konrad Staszczyk below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 69 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Konrad Staszczyk at 55.4%
69 points played in total.
H2H Mateusz Rutkowski 7–10 Konrad Staszczyk Mateusz Rutkowski has won 7 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:11What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Staszczyk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-10 in 17
Staszczyk
Wrong
gap of 3 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rutkowski 1837 vs Staszczyk 1610
Rutkowski
Correct
both rated, 226 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rutkowski 80% vs Staszczyk 0%
Rutkowski
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rutkowski 70% vs Staszczyk 10%
Rutkowski
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rutkowski +1 · Staszczyk -5
Staszczyk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Rutkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 45% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Staszczyk form (0%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRutkowski 1.91 / Staszczyk 1.80
Signal prob.58% / 43%
Edge (Rutkowski)+9.0pp
TT Elite Series · #12450446
Rutkowski1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog43% won 172 of 402
Down 0–1, comes back21% 49 of 233
Down 0–2, comes back6% 7 of 113
Staszczyk1.80
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 8
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite64% won 143 of 222
Up 2–0, closes it86% 56 of 65
Up 1–0, closes it82% 102 of 124
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRutkowski4wins
AwayStaszczyk6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderStaszczyk leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRutkowski66.7%4 of 6
AwayStaszczyk100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rutkowski6Staszczyk4n = 10Rutkowski took 6 of 10
S2Rutkowski5Staszczyk5n = 10split evenly
S3Rutkowski6Staszczyk4n = 10Rutkowski took 6 of 10
S4Rutkowski2Staszczyk4n = 6Staszczyk took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricRutkowskiStaszczykR − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.935.7+1.2per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRutkowskiStaszczykBasisWin rate · lifetime718 / 1285 vs 173 / 30255.9%57.3%718 / 1285 vs 173 / 302Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RutkowskiRutkowski 1.91/Staszczyk 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.5%
Rutkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Rutkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 9 · 18:30M. Rutkowski—1111591K. Staszczyk—81311113
WAug 8 · 19:40M. Rutkowski—1111113K. Staszczyk—9350
LJul 16 · 18:50M. Rutkowski—10960K. Staszczyk—1211113
LJul 13 · 01:10M. Rutkowski—116881K. Staszczyk—71111113
LJul 12 · 22:50M. Rutkowski—81111792K. Staszczyk—119511113
WJun 8 · 02:20M. Rutkowski—11611113K. Staszczyk—611881
LJun 7 · 23:55M. Rutkowski—1081361K. Staszczyk—121111113
WJun 7 · 01:35M. Rutkowski—1111113K. Staszczyk—5770
LJun 6 · 23:05M. Rutkowski—911141282K. Staszczyk—1181610113
WJun 6 · 17:55M. Rutkowski—1111113K. Staszczyk—6890
M. Rutkowski10
WSep 8 · 17:20A. Daniel1.611198121M. Rutkowski2.2081111143WSep 8 · 16:30K. Glazowski1.73101151162M. Rutkowski2.00128117113WSep 8 · 15:00K. Kostyk2.25610100M. Rutkowski1.571112123WSep 8 · 24:10M. Rutkowski1.501111143K. Kostyk2.5097120LSep 7 · 23:20M. Rutkowski2.00911101562K. Staszczyk1.731181213113WSep 7 · 21:50M. Rutkowski1.171111113B. Sulkowski4.507880WSep 7 · 21:25M. Rutkowski1.73714413113K. Kapik2.001112111182WSep 7 · 20:30K. Staszczyk1.73781111112M. Rutkowski2.00111168133WSep 7 · 19:15M. Rutkowski1.401111113K. Kostyk2.759980WSep 7 · 18:05K. Glazowski1.839111081M. Rutkowski1.8311912113
K. Staszczyk10
WSep 7 · 23:20M. Rutkowski2.00911101562K. Staszczyk1.731181213113WSep 7 · 22:35B. Sulkowski3.5095100K. Staszczyk1.281111123LSep 7 · 22:10K. Staszczyk1.9191190K. Kapik1.801113113WSep 7 · 21:00K. Kostyk2.2071181862K. Staszczyk1.611161116113LSep 7 · 20:30K. Staszczyk1.73781111112M. Rutkowski2.00111168133WSep 7 · 18:50K. Staszczyk2.50111387113K. Glazowski1.50911111182LSep 7 · 17:40K. Staszczyk1.8391161182K. Kapik1.83117119113LSep 7 · 16:05K. Staszczyk3.50561131K. Strowski1.2811114113LSep 7 · 15:00K. Staszczyk1.6154110K. Kostyk2.201111133WAug 19 · 24:35D. Solilo3.00106100K. Staszczyk1.361211123
Upcoming Matches
M. Rutkowski2 of 9 neutral
Sep 8 · 20:05M. Rutkowski1.36L. Pietraszko3.00—Sep 8 · 21:00M. Rutkowski1.50K. Kostyk2.50—Sep 8 · 22:55M. Rutkowski1.36L. Pietraszko3.00—Sep 8 · 23:45M. Rutkowski1.83K. Staszczyk1.83—Sep 9 · 24:10M. Rutkowski1.73K. Kapik2.00—Sep 9 · 21:25M. Rutkowski—M. Olbrycht——Sep 9 · 21:50M. Rutkowski—K. Staszczyk——Sep 9 · 23:20M. Rutkowski—K. Kapik——Sep 10 · 24:10M. Rutkowski—J. Chmielowski——
K. Staszczyk2 of 6 neutral
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