TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13090079
Played Sep 7Finished
Mateusz Rutkowski
Home
1.17
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117118118––––
Bartosz Sulkowski
Away
4.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:22 and never touched — 68.4% is still 68.4%
Graded at full timeMateusz Rutkowski to win
68.4%
68.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMateusz Rutkowski above · Bartosz Sulkowski below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 56 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Mateusz Rutkowski at 68.4%
56 points played in total.
H2H Mateusz Rutkowski 16–1 Bartosz Sulkowski Bartosz Sulkowski has won 1 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 01:22What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.17 (79%)
Rutkowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-1 in 17
Rutkowski
Correct
gap of 15 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rutkowski 1694 vs Sulkowski 1436
Rutkowski
Correct
both rated, 258 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rutkowski 80% vs Sulkowski 60%
Rutkowski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rutkowski 70% vs Sulkowski 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rutkowski +4 · Sulkowski +2
Rutkowski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 86% — Strong (leans Rutkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sulkowski form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (22%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRutkowski 1.17 / Sulkowski 4.50
Signal prob.86% / 14%
Edge (Rutkowski)+6.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13090079
Rutkowski1.17
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite69% won 379 of 546
Up 2–0, closes it96% 184 of 191
Up 1–0, closes it89% 302 of 339
Sulkowski4.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog32% won 164 of 510
Down 0–1, comes back17% 51 of 293
Down 0–2, comes back2% 3 of 137
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRutkowski10wins
AwaySulkowski0wins
2 of 10 to a deciderRutkowski leads 10–0, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRutkowski100%8 of 8
AwaySulkowskin = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rutkowski8Sulkowski2n = 10Rutkowski took 8 of 10
S2Rutkowski6Sulkowski4n = 10Rutkowski took 6 of 10
S3Rutkowski8Sulkowski2n = 10Rutkowski took 8 of 10
S4Rutkowski6Sulkowski2n = 8Rutkowski took 6 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home660%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricRutkowskiSulkowskiR − SBasisWins100+10in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match41.132.2+8.9per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRutkowskiSulkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime772 / 1376 vs 540 / 122256.1%44.2%772 / 1376 vs 540 / 1222Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RutkowskiRutkowski 1.17/Sulkowski 4.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
85.6%
Rutkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Rutkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WMay 19 · 23:50M. Rutkowski—1191110113B. Sulkowski—61191272
WMay 19 · 21:30M. Rutkowski—11115113B. Sulkowski—921161
WMay 1 · 16:40M. Rutkowski—1111113B. Sulkowski—6760
WApr 30 · 20:35M. Rutkowski—11811113B. Sulkowski—811491
WApr 15 · 16:40M. Rutkowski—111111113B. Sulkowski—136481
WApr 9 · 23:50M. Rutkowski—116116113B. Sulkowski—91171172
WApr 9 · 21:30M. Rutkowski—17711113B. Sulkowski—1511671
WApr 9 · 15:30M. Rutkowski—11115113B. Sulkowski—591171
WMar 6 · 01:15M. Rutkowski—1111113B. Sulkowski—6480
WMar 5 · 22:50M. Rutkowski—91111103B. Sulkowski—118771
M. Rutkowski10
WSep 7 · 21:25M. Rutkowski1.73714413113K. Kapik2.001112111182WSep 7 · 20:30K. Staszczyk1.73781111112M. Rutkowski2.00111168133WSep 7 · 19:15M. Rutkowski1.401111113K. Kostyk2.759980WSep 7 · 18:05K. Glazowski1.839111081M. Rutkowski1.8311912113LSep 7 · 16:55K. Kapik1.911112113M. Rutkowski1.8081070LSep 7 · 15:25K. Strowski1.6111111113M. Rutkowski2.20911341LSep 5 · 01:10M. Rutkowski1.57812111192M. Kolek2.251110139113WSep 5 · 24:20M. Rutkowski1.801413113P. Jendrzejewski1.91121150WSep 4 · 22:50M. Rutkowski1.731111113J. Kuzmicz2.009680WSep 4 · 22:30M. Rutkowski1.731111113T. Filbrandt2.007380
B. Sulkowski10
LSep 7 · 22:35B. Sulkowski3.5095100K. Staszczyk1.281111123WSep 7 · 24:35A. Linek1.97136681B. Sulkowski1.71111111113WSep 6 · 22:55A. Lilien1.66511961B. Sulkowski2.0511711113LSep 6 · 22:15M. Trela1.941111117113B. Sulkowski1.7461341192LSep 6 · 21:30A. Myszewski2.3711711113B. Sulkowski1.51511451WSep 6 · 19:40J. Michalczyk2.21811981B. Sulkowski1.5711211113WSep 6 · 18:55M. Trela2.239711121B. Sulkowski1.5611112143WSep 6 · 18:10B. Sulkowski1.60111178113A. Myszewski2.1036111142LSep 6 · 16:35B. Sulkowski2.258115101A. Lilien1.5511811123LSep 6 · 15:50A. Wos1.421511113113B. Sulkowski2.6017761162
Upcoming Matches
M. Rutkowski3 of 10 neutral
Sep 7 · 23:20M. Rutkowski2.00K. Staszczyk1.73—Sep 8 · 24:10M. Rutkowski1.50K. Kostyk2.50—Sep 8 · 15:00M. Rutkowski—K. Kostyk——Sep 8 · 16:30M. Rutkowski—K. Glazowski——Sep 8 · 17:20M. Rutkowski—A. Daniel——Sep 8 · 19:15M. Rutkowski—K. Kapik——Sep 8 · 20:05M. Rutkowski—L. Pietraszko——Sep 8 · 21:00M. Rutkowski—K. Kostyk——Sep 8 · 22:55M. Rutkowski—L. Pietraszko——Sep 8 · 23:45M. Rutkowski—K. Staszczyk——
B. Sulkowski2 of 7 neutral
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