TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13088099
Played Sep 6Finished
Bartosz Sulkowski
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8111185111012––
Aleksander Lilien
Away
1.55
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:44 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAleksander Lilien to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
76 points played in total.
Set by set
8111185111012––
H2H Bartosz Sulkowski 15–23 Aleksander Lilien Bartosz Sulkowski has won 15 of their 38 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:44What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.55 (59%)
Lilien
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-23 in 38
Lilien
Correct
gap of 8 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sulkowski 1430 vs Lilien 1465
Lilien
Correct
both rated, 35 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sulkowski 60% vs Lilien 40%
Sulkowski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sulkowski 70% vs Lilien 50%
Sulkowski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sulkowski -1 · Lilien -3
Lilien
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Lilien) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lilien form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSulkowski 2.25 / Lilien 1.55
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Lilien)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13088099
Sulkowski2.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog32% won 163 of 507
Down 0–1, comes back18% 51 of 292
Down 0–2, comes back2% 3 of 137
Lilien1.55
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 254 of 425
Up 2–0, closes it96% 130 of 135
Up 1–0, closes it77% 192 of 248
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSulkowski3wins
AwayLilien7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLilien leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSulkowski60%3 of 5
AwayLilien100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sulkowski5Lilien5n = 10split evenly
S2Sulkowski4Lilien6n = 10Lilien took 6 of 10
S3Sulkowski4Lilien6n = 10Lilien took 6 of 10
S4Sulkowski4Lilien4n = 8split evenly
S5Sulkowski1Lilien3n = 4Lilien took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSulkowskiLilienS − LBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.040.0−3.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSulkowskiLilienBasisWin rate · lifetime535 / 1213 vs 829 / 153544.1%54%535 / 1213 vs 829 / 1535Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LilienSulkowski 2.25/Lilien 1.55
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.6%
Lilien · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Lilien won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 5 · 20:30B. Sulkowski—1211491A. Lilien—14511113
LAug 26 · 11:25B. Sulkowski—4850A. Lilien—1111113
LAug 26 · 05:15B. Sulkowski—551481A. Lilien—111112113
WAug 14 · 12:15B. Sulkowski—11117113A. Lilien—991191
LAug 13 · 14:20B. Sulkowski—481171A. Lilien—11114113
WAug 12 · 11:25B. Sulkowski—1113123A. Lilien—711100
WAug 7 · 11:50B. Sulkowski—115115113A. Lilien—51171172
LJul 26 · 18:10B. Sulkowski—11991152A. Lilien—411115113
LJul 17 · 11:50B. Sulkowski—71161192A. Lilien—118114113
LJul 14 · 06:30B. Sulkowski—11991172A. Lilien—911118113
B. Sulkowski10
WSep 7 · 24:35A. Linek1.97136681B. Sulkowski1.71111111113WSep 6 · 22:55A. Lilien1.66511961B. Sulkowski2.0511711113LSep 6 · 22:15M. Trela1.941111117113B. Sulkowski1.7461341192LSep 6 · 21:30A. Myszewski2.3711711113B. Sulkowski1.51511451WSep 6 · 19:40J. Michalczyk2.21811981B. Sulkowski1.5711211113WSep 6 · 18:55M. Trela2.239711121B. Sulkowski1.5611112143WSep 6 · 18:10B. Sulkowski1.60111178113A. Myszewski2.1036111142LSep 6 · 15:50A. Wos1.421511113113B. Sulkowski2.6017761162WSep 5 · 23:20A. Lilien1.62711781B. Sulkowski2.1511711113WSep 5 · 22:35D. Poloszczanski2.9541013111B. Sulkowski1.35111211133
A. Lilien10
LSep 7 · 24:10A. Myszewski2.401211113A. Lilien1.5110490LSep 6 · 23:45A. Lilien1.66118991A. Linek2.1071111113LSep 6 · 22:55A. Lilien1.66511961B. Sulkowski2.0511711113WSep 6 · 21:05A. Lilien1.471111113M. Trela2.453880WSep 6 · 20:05A. Wos1.63115111082A. Lilien2.10911712113LSep 6 · 19:20A. Myszewski2.301111113A. Lilien1.528560LSep 6 · 17:20J. Michalczyk1.90111275113A. Lilien1.80710111182LSep 6 · 15:00M. Trela3.051111113A. Lilien1.319890LSep 6 · 24:10A. Lilien1.83713291K. Kufel1.83111111113LSep 5 · 23:20A. Lilien1.62711781B. Sulkowski2.1511711113
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