TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13088094
Played Sep 6Finished
Jakub Michalczyk
Home
1.90
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1171210711511118
Aleksander Lilien
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:43 and never touched — 57.5% is still 57.5%
Graded at full timeAleksander Lilien to win
57.5%
57.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
93 points played in total.
Set by set
1171210711511118
H2H Jakub Michalczyk 3–6 Aleksander Lilien Jakub Michalczyk has won 3 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:43What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Lilien
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-6 in 9
Lilien
Wrong
gap of 3 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Michalczyk 1402 vs Lilien 1465
Lilien
Wrong
both rated, 63 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Michalczyk 80% vs Lilien 40%
Michalczyk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Michalczyk 70% vs Lilien 50%
Michalczyk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Michalczyk -1 · Lilien -3
Lilien
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Lilien) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lilien form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMichalczyk 1.90 / Lilien 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Lilien)+2.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13088094
Michalczyk1.90
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 27 of 71
Down 0–1, comes back22% 10 of 46
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 25
Lilien1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 254 of 425
Up 2–0, closes it96% 130 of 135
Up 1–0, closes it77% 192 of 248
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeMichalczyk3wins
AwayLilien6wins
4 of 9 to a deciderLilien leads 6–3, and 4 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMichalczyk66.7%2 of 3
AwayLilien83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Michalczyk3Lilien6n = 9Lilien took 6 of 9
S2Michalczyk2Lilien7n = 9Lilien took 7 of 9
S3Michalczyk3Lilien6n = 9Lilien took 6 of 9
S4Michalczyk2Lilien4n = 6Lilien took 4 of 6
S5Michalczyk3Lilien1n = 4Michalczyk took 3 of 4
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home333%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away222%
0–3Straight, away333%
These 9 meetings
MetricMichalczykLilienM − LBasisWins36−3in 9 meetingsFirst set36−3of 9Avg pointsper match37.642.9−5.3per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMichalczykLilienBasisWin rate · lifetime185 / 350 vs 829 / 153552.9%54%185 / 350 vs 829 / 1535Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.238.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LilienMichalczyk 1.90/Lilien 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Lilien · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Michalczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 5 · 21:30J. Michalczyk—1169101A. Lilien—81111123
LSep 5 · 16:55J. Michalczyk—961261A. Lilien—111110113
LAug 16 · 15:50J. Michalczyk—613116102A. Lilien—1111711123
LJul 19 · 16:35J. Michalczyk—4970A. Lilien—1111113
WJun 1 · 09:25J. Michalczyk—711911123A. Lilien—119118102
LJan 26 · 12:25J. Michalczyk—61080A. Lilien—1112113
WSep 21 · 19:25J. Michalczyk—118912113A. Lilien—811111062
WSep 14 · 17:00J. Michalczyk—1151112143A. Lilien—711914122
LSep 2 · 09:25J. Michalczyk—69100A. Lilien—1111123
J. Michalczyk10
LSep 6 · 19:40J. Michalczyk2.21811981B. Sulkowski1.5711211113WSep 6 · 18:30J. Michalczyk2.50411117113A. Wos1.4611681172LSep 6 · 16:15M. Trela2.604101111113J. Michalczyk1.4211127772WSep 6 · 15:25J. Michalczyk1.541111108113A. Myszewski2.2569121192WSep 6 · 14:35J. Michalczyk1.6311711113T. Pisarczyk2.10611871WSep 6 · 13:00J. Michalczyk1.791315113M. Zagajewski1.88111330WSep 6 · 11:45J. Michalczyk1.77111120113P. Staniszewski1.90972281LSep 6 · 10:05J. Michalczyk1.9589111162I. Dabrowski1.74111174113LSep 6 · 09:00J. Michalczyk2.153860D. Wasilewski1.631111113WSep 6 · 24:35D. Poloszczanski2.60101380J. Michalczyk1.411215113
A. Lilien10
LSep 7 · 24:10A. Myszewski2.401211113A. Lilien1.5110490LSep 6 · 23:45A. Lilien1.66118991A. Linek2.1071111113LSep 6 · 22:55A. Lilien1.66511961B. Sulkowski2.0511711113WSep 6 · 21:05A. Lilien1.471111113M. Trela2.453880WSep 6 · 20:05A. Wos1.63115111082A. Lilien2.10911712113LSep 6 · 19:20A. Myszewski2.301111113A. Lilien1.528560WSep 6 · 16:35B. Sulkowski2.258115101A. Lilien1.5511811123LSep 6 · 15:00M. Trela3.051111113A. Lilien1.319890LSep 6 · 24:10A. Lilien1.83713291K. Kufel1.83111111113LSep 5 · 23:20A. Lilien1.62711781B. Sulkowski2.1511711113
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