TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13087127
Played Sep 6Finished
Jakub Michalczyk
Home
1.79
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
13111513113––––
Mateusz Zagajewski
Away
1.88
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:35 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeJakub Michalczyk to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
66 points played in total.
Set by set
13111513113––––
H2H Jakub Michalczyk 1–1 Mateusz Zagajewski Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:35What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.79 (51%)
Michalczyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Michalczyk 1384 vs Zagajewski 1358
Michalczyk
Correct
both rated, 25 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Michalczyk 60% vs Zagajewski 20%
Michalczyk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Michalczyk 50% vs Zagajewski 30%
Michalczyk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Michalczyk +1 · Zagajewski -3
Zagajewski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Michalczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zagajewski form (20%) is below what odds imply (53%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMichalczyk 1.79 / Zagajewski 1.88
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Michalczyk)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13087127
Michalczyk1.79
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 24 of 39
Up 2–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it82% 18 of 22
Zagajewski1.88
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 49 of 117
Down 0–1, comes back19% 12 of 64
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeMichalczyk1wins
AwayZagajewski1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricMichalczykZagajewskiM − ZBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match43.041.0+2.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMichalczykZagajewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime181 / 345 vs 352 / 71452.5%49.3%181 / 345 vs 352 / 714Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match40.236.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MichalczykMichalczyk 1.79/Zagajewski 1.88
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Michalczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Michalczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WMar 13 · 15:20J. Michalczyk—1611113M. Zagajewski—14790
LOct 10 · 09:00J. Michalczyk—1151011112M. Zagajewski—911127133
J. Michalczyk10
LSep 6 · 19:40J. Michalczyk2.21811981B. Sulkowski1.5711211113WSep 6 · 18:30J. Michalczyk2.50411117113A. Wos1.4611681172WSep 6 · 17:20J. Michalczyk1.90111275113A. Lilien1.80710111182LSep 6 · 16:15M. Trela2.604101111113J. Michalczyk1.4211127772WSep 6 · 15:25J. Michalczyk1.541111108113A. Myszewski2.2569121192WSep 6 · 14:35J. Michalczyk1.6311711113T. Pisarczyk2.10611871WSep 6 · 11:45J. Michalczyk1.77111120113P. Staniszewski1.90972281LSep 6 · 10:05J. Michalczyk1.9589111162I. Dabrowski1.74111174113LSep 6 · 09:00J. Michalczyk2.153860D. Wasilewski1.631111113WSep 6 · 24:35D. Poloszczanski2.60101380J. Michalczyk1.411215113
M. Zagajewski10
WSep 6 · 13:50I. Dabrowski1.9351271172M. Zagajewski1.751110118113LSep 6 · 12:10M. Zagajewski1.82177781T. Pisarczyk1.85151111113LSep 6 · 10:30M. Zagajewski2.225121171D. Wasilewski1.5611145113LSep 6 · 09:45P. Staniszewski1.8611811133M. Zagajewski1.836117111WSep 6 · 08:30I. Dabrowski1.907111121M. Zagajewski1.8011137113LSep 6 · 07:15M. Zagajewski5.80691131G. Adamiak1.0911115113WSep 6 · 06:00T. Pisarczyk2.059270M. Zagajewski1.681111113WSep 6 · 04:50D. Wasilewski1.5251161182M. Zagajewski2.30117118113LSep 6 · 03:20P. Staniszewski1.90119119143M. Zagajewski1.80611411122LAug 30 · 14:35M. Zagajewski2.3571161172D. Solilo1.50119116113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.