TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13087136
Played Sep 6Finished
Jakub Michalczyk
Home
1.77
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1191172022118––
Piotr Staniszewski
Away
1.90
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:32 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Michalczyk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
99 points played in total.
Set by set
1191172022118––
H2H Jakub Michalczyk 3–2 Piotr Staniszewski Piotr Staniszewski has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:32What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.77 (52%)
Michalczyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Michalczyk 1371 vs Staniszewski 1403
Staniszewski
Wrong
both rated, 32 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Michalczyk 60% vs Staniszewski 40%
Michalczyk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Michalczyk 40% vs Staniszewski 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Michalczyk -2 · Staniszewski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Michalczyk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Staniszewski form (40%) is below what odds imply (53%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMichalczyk 1.77 / Staniszewski 1.90
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Michalczyk)+2.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13087136
Michalczyk1.77
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 24 of 39
Up 2–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it82% 18 of 22
Staniszewski1.90
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 65 of 159
Down 0–1, comes back19% 17 of 90
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeMichalczyk3wins
AwayStaniszewski2wins
1 of 5 to a deciderMichalczyk leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMichalczyk75%3 of 4
AwayStaniszewskin = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Michalczyk4Staniszewski1n = 5Michalczyk took 4 of 5
S2Michalczyk1Staniszewski4n = 5Staniszewski took 4 of 5
S3Michalczyk2Staniszewski3n = 5Staniszewski took 3 of 5
S4Michalczyk4Staniszewski0n = 4Michalczyk took 4 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home360%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricMichalczykStaniszewskiM − SBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set41+3of 5Avg pointsper match37.835.2+2.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMichalczykStaniszewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime180 / 344 vs 404 / 86952.3%46.5%180 / 344 vs 404 / 869Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.138.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MichalczykMichalczyk 1.77/Staniszewski 1.90
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Michalczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Michalczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LNov 2 · 14:00J. Michalczyk—11781182P. Staniszewski—711117113
WSep 14 · 10:30J. Michalczyk—15911113P. Staniszewski—1311531
WSep 13 · 13:25J. Michalczyk—11911113P. Staniszewski—811961
WJul 26 · 14:15J. Michalczyk—11114113P. Staniszewski—571171
LJul 20 · 13:00J. Michalczyk—3790P. Staniszewski—1111113
J. Michalczyk10
LSep 6 · 19:40J. Michalczyk2.21811981B. Sulkowski1.5711211113WSep 6 · 18:30J. Michalczyk2.50411117113A. Wos1.4611681172WSep 6 · 17:20J. Michalczyk1.90111275113A. Lilien1.80710111182LSep 6 · 16:15M. Trela2.604101111113J. Michalczyk1.4211127772WSep 6 · 15:25J. Michalczyk1.541111108113A. Myszewski2.2569121192WSep 6 · 14:35J. Michalczyk1.6311711113T. Pisarczyk2.10611871WSep 6 · 13:00J. Michalczyk1.791315113M. Zagajewski1.88111330LSep 6 · 10:05J. Michalczyk1.9589111162I. Dabrowski1.74111174113LSep 6 · 09:00J. Michalczyk2.153860D. Wasilewski1.631111113WSep 6 · 24:35D. Poloszczanski2.60101380J. Michalczyk1.411215113
P. Staniszewski10
LSep 6 · 14:15P. Staniszewski2.377650D. Wasilewski1.521111113LSep 6 · 12:35I. Dabrowski1.7411118113P. Staniszewski1.94971151WSep 6 · 10:55P. Staniszewski1.66111262123T. Pisarczyk2.056101111102WSep 6 · 09:45P. Staniszewski1.8611811133M. Zagajewski1.836117111LSep 6 · 07:40P. Staniszewski1.85119661T. Pisarczyk1.8281111113WSep 6 · 06:25P. Staniszewski2.2551512113D. Wasilewski1.5711131071LSep 6 · 05:15P. Staniszewski5.405970G. Adamiak1.111111113LSep 6 · 04:00I. Dabrowski1.6614711113P. Staniszewski2.101211771WSep 6 · 03:20P. Staniszewski1.90119119143M. Zagajewski1.80611411122WAug 30 · 13:50P. Staniszewski1.94117119113I. Dabrowski1.7461171162
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