TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13086525
Played Sep 6Finished
Piotr Staniszewski
Home
1.86
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1168111171311––
Mateusz Zagajewski
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:08 and never touched — 55.5% is still 55.5%
Graded at full timeMateusz Zagajewski to win
55.5%
55.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
78 points played in total.
Set by set
1168111171311––
H2H Piotr Staniszewski 4–6 Mateusz Zagajewski Piotr Staniszewski has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:08What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Zagajewski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-6 in 10
Zagajewski
Wrong
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Staniszewski 1390 vs Zagajewski 1397
Zagajewski
Wrong
both rated, 6 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Staniszewski 40% vs Zagajewski 60%
Zagajewski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Staniszewski 30% vs Zagajewski 50%
Zagajewski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Staniszewski -1 · Zagajewski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Zagajewski) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Staniszewski form (40%) is below what odds imply (54%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStaniszewski 1.86 / Zagajewski 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Zagajewski)+3.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13086525
Staniszewski1.86
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 65 of 159
Down 0–1, comes back19% 17 of 90
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 32
Zagajewski1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 37 of 65
Up 2–0, closes it92% 12 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it84% 27 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStaniszewski4wins
AwayZagajewski6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderZagajewski leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStaniszewski80%4 of 5
AwayZagajewski100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Staniszewski5Zagajewski5n = 10split evenly
S2Staniszewski3Zagajewski7n = 10Zagajewski took 7 of 10
S3Staniszewski7Zagajewski3n = 10Staniszewski took 7 of 10
S4Staniszewski2Zagajewski7n = 9Zagajewski took 7 of 9
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away660%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricStaniszewskiZagajewskiS − ZBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.236.4+0.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStaniszewskiZagajewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime403 / 868 vs 352 / 71146.4%49.5%403 / 868 vs 352 / 711Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.636.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZagajewskiStaniszewski 1.86/Zagajewski 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Zagajewski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Staniszewski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 03:20P. Staniszewski—119119143M. Zagajewski—611411122
LAug 30 · 10:05P. Staniszewski—761141M. Zagajewski—11116113
LAug 30 · 06:00P. Staniszewski—911951M. Zagajewski—11811113
LAug 2 · 11:45P. Staniszewski—661191M. Zagajewski—11114113
WMar 27 · 20:05P. Staniszewski—151011113M. Zagajewski—1312791
WJan 23 · 06:50P. Staniszewski—11119113M. Zagajewski—961131
LJan 23 · 04:20P. Staniszewski—1181191M. Zagajewski—13115113
LJul 25 · 11:20P. Staniszewski—1171121M. Zagajewski—13114113
WJul 25 · 07:30P. Staniszewski—1111113M. Zagajewski—3640
LJul 25 · 05:00P. Staniszewski—118761M. Zagajewski—81111113
P. Staniszewski10
LSep 6 · 14:15P. Staniszewski2.377650D. Wasilewski1.521111113LSep 6 · 12:35I. Dabrowski1.7411118113P. Staniszewski1.94971151LSep 6 · 11:45J. Michalczyk1.77111120113P. Staniszewski1.90972281WSep 6 · 10:55P. Staniszewski1.66111262123T. Pisarczyk2.056101111102LSep 6 · 07:40P. Staniszewski1.85119661T. Pisarczyk1.8281111113WSep 6 · 06:25P. Staniszewski2.2551512113D. Wasilewski1.5711131071LSep 6 · 05:15P. Staniszewski5.405970G. Adamiak1.111111113LSep 6 · 04:00I. Dabrowski1.6614711113P. Staniszewski2.101211771WSep 6 · 03:20P. Staniszewski1.90119119143M. Zagajewski1.80611411122WAug 30 · 13:50P. Staniszewski1.94117119113I. Dabrowski1.7461171162
M. Zagajewski10
WSep 6 · 13:50I. Dabrowski1.9351271172M. Zagajewski1.751110118113LSep 6 · 13:00J. Michalczyk1.791315113M. Zagajewski1.88111330LSep 6 · 12:10M. Zagajewski1.82177781T. Pisarczyk1.85151111113LSep 6 · 10:30M. Zagajewski2.225121171D. Wasilewski1.5611145113WSep 6 · 08:30I. Dabrowski1.907111121M. Zagajewski1.8011137113LSep 6 · 07:15M. Zagajewski5.80691131G. Adamiak1.0911115113WSep 6 · 06:00T. Pisarczyk2.059270M. Zagajewski1.681111113WSep 6 · 04:50D. Wasilewski1.5251161182M. Zagajewski2.30117118113LSep 6 · 03:20P. Staniszewski1.90119119143M. Zagajewski1.80611411122LAug 30 · 14:35M. Zagajewski2.3571161172D. Solilo1.50119116113
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