TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13086522
Played Sep 6Finished
Jakub Michalczyk
Home
1.95
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811911117114611
Igor Dabrowski
Away
1.74
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:08 and never touched — 60.8% is still 60.8%
Graded at full timeJakub Michalczyk to win
60.8%
60.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
89 points played in total.
Set by set
811911117114611
H2H Jakub Michalczyk 4–3 Igor Dabrowski Igor Dabrowski has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:08What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.74 (53%)
Dabrowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Michalczyk 1382 vs Dabrowski 1374
Michalczyk
Wrong
both rated, 8 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Michalczyk 60% vs Dabrowski 40%
Michalczyk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Michalczyk 50% vs Dabrowski 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Michalczyk -1 · Dabrowski -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Dabrowski) · live re-read · sealed at 39% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dabrowski form (40%) is below what odds imply (57%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMichalczyk 1.95 / Dabrowski 1.74
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Dabrowski)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13086522
Michalczyk1.95
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 27 of 71
Down 0–1, comes back22% 10 of 46
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 25
Dabrowski1.74
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 213 of 360
Up 2–0, closes it98% 103 of 105
Up 1–0, closes it75% 165 of 221
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeMichalczyk4wins
AwayDabrowski3wins
3 of 7 to a deciderMichalczyk leads 4–3, and 3 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMichalczyk100%3 of 3
AwayDabrowski75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Michalczyk3Dabrowski4n = 7Dabrowski took 4 of 7
S2Michalczyk3Dabrowski4n = 7Dabrowski took 4 of 7
S3Michalczyk5Dabrowski2n = 7Michalczyk took 5 of 7
S4Michalczyk3Dabrowski4n = 7Dabrowski took 4 of 7
S5Michalczyk2Dabrowski1n = 3Michalczyk took 2 of 3
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricMichalczykDabrowskiM − DBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match43.342.4+0.9per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMichalczykDabrowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime180 / 344 vs 823 / 162652.3%50.6%180 / 344 vs 823 / 1626Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.138.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DabrowskiMichalczyk 1.95/Dabrowski 1.74
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Dabrowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Dabrowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 6 · 10:05J. Michalczyk—89111162I. Dabrowski—111174113
LAug 16 · 09:20J. Michalczyk—1111751I. Dabrowski—13911113
WAug 15 · 10:55J. Michalczyk—131294113I. Dabrowski—1110111192
WJul 19 · 09:00J. Michalczyk—11101110123I. Dabrowski—912612102
WOct 9 · 10:30J. Michalczyk—91111113I. Dabrowski—118491
LSep 3 · 13:00J. Michalczyk—9111161I. Dabrowski—11137113
WJul 19 · 09:00J. Michalczyk—12811113I. Dabrowski—1011851
J. Michalczyk10
LSep 6 · 19:40J. Michalczyk2.21811981B. Sulkowski1.5711211113WSep 6 · 18:30J. Michalczyk2.50411117113A. Wos1.4611681172WSep 6 · 17:20J. Michalczyk1.90111275113A. Lilien1.80710111182LSep 6 · 16:15M. Trela2.604101111113J. Michalczyk1.4211127772WSep 6 · 15:25J. Michalczyk1.541111108113A. Myszewski2.2569121192WSep 6 · 14:35J. Michalczyk1.6311711113T. Pisarczyk2.10611871WSep 6 · 13:00J. Michalczyk1.791315113M. Zagajewski1.88111330WSep 6 · 11:45J. Michalczyk1.77111120113P. Staniszewski1.90972281LSep 6 · 09:00J. Michalczyk2.153860D. Wasilewski1.631111113WSep 6 · 24:35D. Poloszczanski2.60101380J. Michalczyk1.411215113
I. Dabrowski10
LSep 6 · 13:50I. Dabrowski1.9351271172M. Zagajewski1.751110118113WSep 6 · 12:35I. Dabrowski1.7411118113P. Staniszewski1.94971151LSep 6 · 11:20I. Dabrowski2.401011141192D. Wasilewski1.50126166113LSep 6 · 09:20I. Dabrowski1.371111812102T. Pisarczyk2.75721114123LSep 6 · 08:30I. Dabrowski1.907111121M. Zagajewski1.8011137113WSep 6 · 06:50I. Dabrowski1.4011813113T. Pisarczyk2.752111171LSep 6 · 05:35I. Dabrowski2.40311981D. Wasilewski1.5011911113WSep 6 · 04:00I. Dabrowski1.6614711113P. Staniszewski2.101211771LSep 6 · 03:00I. Dabrowski—8111451G. Adamiak—11616113LAug 30 · 13:50P. Staniszewski1.94117119113I. Dabrowski1.7461171162
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