TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13082136
Played Sep 6Finished
Mateusz Trela
Home
3.05
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119118119––––
Aleksander Lilien
Away
1.31
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:49 and never touched — 55.5% is still 55.5%
Graded at full timeAleksander Lilien to win
55.5%
55.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
59 points played in total.
Set by set
119118119––––
H2H Mateusz Trela 8–11 Aleksander Lilien Mateusz Trela has won 8 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:49What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.31 (70%)
Lilien
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-11 in 19
Lilien
Wrong
gap of 3 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Trela 1342 vs Lilien 1485
Lilien
Wrong
both rated, 144 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Trela 60% vs Lilien 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Trela 60% vs Lilien 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Trela -1 · Lilien -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% — Strong (leans Lilien) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lilien form (60%) is below what odds imply (76%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTrela 3.05 / Lilien 1.31
Signal prob.26% / 74%
Edge (Lilien)+3.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13082136
Trela3.05
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 172 of 385
Down 0–1, comes back27% 57 of 214
Down 0–2, comes back9% 10 of 106
Lilien1.31
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 254 of 425
Up 2–0, closes it96% 130 of 135
Up 1–0, closes it77% 192 of 248
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTrela3wins
AwayLilien7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLilien leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTrelan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayLilien87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Trela2Lilien8n = 10Lilien took 8 of 10
S2Trela5Lilien5n = 10split evenly
S3Trela4Lilien6n = 10Lilien took 6 of 10
S4Trela3Lilien4n = 7Lilien took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricTrelaLilienT − LBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match33.637.8−4.2per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTrelaLilienBasisWin rate · lifetime801 / 1639 vs 829 / 153348.9%54.1%801 / 1639 vs 829 / 1533Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LilienTrela 3.05/Lilien 1.31
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
73.6%
Lilien · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Trela won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 18 · 07:40M. Trela—871381A. Lilien—111111113
LJul 27 · 06:05M. Trela—7680A. Lilien—1111113
WJul 9 · 09:25M. Trela—11811113A. Lilien—811791
LJun 11 · 12:35M. Trela—95111172A. Lilien—111157113
WJun 10 · 13:00M. Trela—1111511113A. Lilien—13411992
LJun 10 · 07:30M. Trela—811761A. Lilien—11911113
LJun 10 · 05:00M. Trela—411741A. Lilien—11911113
LMar 14 · 06:25M. Trela—611671A. Lilien—11311113
WMar 14 · 04:00M. Trela—1111113A. Lilien—9750
LJan 27 · 14:00M. Trela—96100A. Lilien—1111123
M. Trela10
LSep 8 · 24:10M. Trela1.66681111102B. Mrugala2.05111179123LSep 7 · 23:20M. Trela1.86811811132W. Iwasyszyn1.83119117153WSep 7 · 21:55M. Trela1.701116113K. Golaszewski2.0081460WSep 7 · 21:30M. Trela1.95811811113J. Przewlocki1.7411811462LSep 7 · 20:30W. Iwasyszyn1.85851111113M. Trela1.8011118352WSep 7 · 19:20M. Trela1.761491110133J. Nosiadek1.901211612112WSep 7 · 18:10P. Strus2.203111181M. Trela1.6011613113WSep 7 · 16:55J. Przewlocki1.85881471M. Trela1.85111112113WSep 7 · 15:25B. Mrugala2.356590M. Trela1.511111113WSep 6 · 23:20A. Myszewski1.91815100M. Trela1.771117123
A. Lilien10
WSep 8 · 08:05M. Minda1.7610670A. Lilien1.881211113LSep 8 · 07:15M. Sklensky1.201111113A. Lilien3.953670WSep 8 · 05:15B. Czerwinski1.75871481A. Lilien1.95111112113LSep 8 · 04:25S. Brud1.85101111113A. Lilien1.85129681WSep 8 · 03:00A. Sobel1.707101131A. Lilien1.9511127113LSep 7 · 24:10A. Myszewski2.401211113A. Lilien1.5110490LSep 6 · 23:45A. Lilien1.66118991A. Linek2.1071111113LSep 6 · 22:55A. Lilien1.66511961B. Sulkowski2.0511711113WSep 6 · 21:05A. Lilien1.471111113M. Trela2.453880WSep 6 · 20:05A. Wos1.63115111082A. Lilien2.10911712113
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