TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13095041
Played Sep 8Finished
Michal Minda
Home
1.76
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1012611711––––
Aleksander Lilien
Away
1.88
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:45 and never touched — 54.6% is still 54.6%
Graded at full timeMichal Minda to win
54.6%
54.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
57 points played in total.
Set by set
1012611711––––
H2H Michal Minda 78–92 Aleksander Lilien Michal Minda has won 78 of their 170 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:45What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.76 (52%)
Minda
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
78-92 in 170
Lilien
Correct
gap of 14 in 170, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Minda 1530 vs Lilien 1417
Minda
Wrong
both rated, 113 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Minda 60% vs Lilien 40%
Minda
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Minda 60% vs Lilien 40%
Minda
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Minda -1 · Lilien -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Minda) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lilien form (40%) is below what odds imply (53%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMinda 1.76 / Lilien 1.88
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Minda)+2.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13095041
Minda1.76
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 302 of 490
Up 2–0, closes it97% 127 of 131
Up 1–0, closes it81% 225 of 278
Lilien1.88
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 93 of 258
Down 0–1, comes back18% 26 of 145
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 91
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMinda7wins
AwayLilien3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderMinda leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMinda100%6 of 6
AwayLilien75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Minda6Lilien4n = 10Minda took 6 of 10
S2Minda6Lilien4n = 10Minda took 6 of 10
S3Minda7Lilien3n = 10Minda took 7 of 10
S4Minda4Lilien3n = 7Minda took 4 of 7
S5Minda3Lilien2n = 5Minda took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMindaLilienM − LBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.436.1+5.3per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMindaLilienBasisWin rate · lifetime1031 / 2020 vs 830 / 154051%53.9%1031 / 2020 vs 830 / 1540Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.238.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MindaMinda 1.76/Lilien 1.88
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Minda · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Lilien won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 4 · 07:40M. Minda—7101111102A. Lilien—111286123
WAug 26 · 10:35M. Minda—111184113A. Lilien—44111182
WAug 26 · 07:15M. Minda—12711113A. Lilien—1011971
LAug 19 · 07:15M. Minda—101111892A. Lilien—128811113
WAug 18 · 13:05M. Minda—1111123A. Lilien—55100
WAug 14 · 05:35M. Minda—1111113A. Lilien—4670
WAug 13 · 04:20M. Minda—511311113A. Lilien—11211672
LAug 7 · 08:05M. Minda—1171181A. Lilien—13117113
WJul 18 · 07:15M. Minda—1311123A. Lilien—119100
WJul 18 · 04:50M. Minda—119711113A. Lilien—81111742
M. Minda10
LSep 9 · 08:30M. Minda1.85781191B. Czerwinski1.8511117113LSep 9 · 06:50M. Minda1.90911291D. Solilo1.8011911113WSep 9 · 05:35M. Minda1.8311611113P. Blocho1.86911951LSep 9 · 04:00M. Minda1.73711941B. Sulkowski1.9811911113LSep 9 · 03:00M. Minda1.71111171072R. Stapor2.00991112113LSep 8 · 06:25B. Czerwinski1.901121011113M. Minda1.8091112782WSep 8 · 05:35A. Sobel1.801011891M. Minda1.8512211113LSep 8 · 04:50M. Minda4.28731191M. Sklensky1.1411118113WSep 8 · 03:40M. Minda1.821111113S. Brud1.884840WSep 7 · 14:20M. Minda1.421111113J. Nosiadek2.606970
A. Lilien10
WSep 9 · 09:00A. Lilien1.44111110113A. Szoltysek2.50881281WSep 9 · 07:40B. Wisniewski3.156790A. Lilien1.301111113WSep 9 · 06:55M. Zwolinski3.3581161152A. Lilien1.27116112113LSep 9 · 06:05A. Lilien1.501111891K. Sulkowski2.4013111113WSep 9 · 04:30A. Lilien1.441111113A. Szoltysek2.509890WSep 9 · 03:50M. Lukaszewski3.30461131A. Lilien1.2711119113WSep 8 · 14:20A. Lilien1.5711119113A. Myszewski2.20851191WSep 8 · 12:40J. Glanowski1.861175111A. Lilien1.8371111133WSep 8 · 11:50S. Brud1.8098111142A. Lilien1.90111197113LSep 8 · 11:00A. Lilien1.8010911111B. Sulkowski1.9012116133
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