TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13100372
Played Sep 9Finished
Aleksander Lilien
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1113111811911––
Karol Sulkowski
Away
2.40
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:59 and never touched — 57.4% is still 57.4%
Graded at full timeAleksander Lilien to win
57.4%
57.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
75 points played in total.
Set by set
1113111811911––
H2H Aleksander Lilien 21–17 Karol Sulkowski Karol Sulkowski has won 17 of their 38 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:59What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (62%)
Lilien
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-17 in 38
Lilien
Wrong
gap of 4 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lilien 1445 vs Sulkowski 1314
Lilien
Wrong
both rated, 132 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lilien 100% vs Sulkowski 20%
Lilien
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lilien 70% vs Sulkowski 30%
Lilien
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lilien +5 · Sulkowski -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Lilien) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sulkowski form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLilien 1.50 / Sulkowski 2.40
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Lilien)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13100372
Lilien1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 259 of 437
Up 2–0, closes it96% 133 of 138
Up 1–0, closes it78% 196 of 253
Sulkowski2.40
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 157 of 433
Down 0–1, comes back15% 38 of 256
Down 0–2, comes back1% 2 of 143
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLilien6wins
AwaySulkowski4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLilien leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLilien83.3%5 of 6
AwaySulkowski75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lilien6Sulkowski4n = 10Lilien took 6 of 10
S2Lilien5Sulkowski5n = 10split evenly
S3Lilien6Sulkowski4n = 10Lilien took 6 of 10
S4Lilien4Sulkowski4n = 8split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricLilienSulkowskiL − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.535.5+3.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLilienSulkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime833 / 1541 vs 628 / 126954.1%49.5%833 / 1541 vs 628 / 1269Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.537.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LilienLilien 1.50/Sulkowski 2.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.7%
Lilien · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Sulkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 06:05A. Lilien—1111891K. Sulkowski—13111113
LAug 24 · 04:10A. Lilien—1091171K. Sulkowski—12116113
WAug 6 · 09:25A. Lilien—1111113K. Sulkowski—8970
WJul 26 · 19:20A. Lilien—911712113K. Sulkowski—117111072
LJul 23 · 09:25A. Lilien—114581K. Sulkowski—71111113
WJul 16 · 13:55A. Lilien—1111113K. Sulkowski—5860
WJul 9 · 10:10A. Lilien—13911133K. Sulkowski—11119111
LJun 24 · 05:15A. Lilien—881171K. Sulkowski—11118113
WJun 24 · 03:00A. Lilien—11116113K. Sulkowski—581141
WJun 15 · 10:10A. Lilien—111014113K. Sulkowski—6121291
A. Lilien10
WSep 9 · 04:30A. Lilien1.441111113A. Szoltysek2.509890WSep 9 · 03:50M. Lukaszewski3.30461131A. Lilien1.2711119113WSep 8 · 14:20A. Lilien1.5711119113A. Myszewski2.20851191WSep 8 · 12:40J. Glanowski1.861175111A. Lilien1.8371111133WSep 8 · 11:50S. Brud1.8098111142A. Lilien1.90111197113LSep 8 · 11:00A. Lilien1.8010911111B. Sulkowski1.9012116133LSep 8 · 09:50A. Lilien2.00351391A. Sobel1.70111111113WSep 8 · 08:05M. Minda1.7610670A. Lilien1.881211113LSep 8 · 07:15M. Sklensky1.201111113A. Lilien3.953670WSep 8 · 05:15B. Czerwinski1.75871481A. Lilien1.95111112113
K. Sulkowski10
LSep 9 · 04:55M. Lukaszewski2.4311118113K. Sulkowski1.45671171LSep 9 · 03:25B. Wisniewski2.101211113K. Sulkowski1.6510990LSep 8 · 07:40K. Sulkowski1.85611871D. Wrobel1.8511611113WSep 8 · 06:30K. Sulkowski2.051111113R. Stapor1.656860LSep 8 · 05:15K. Sulkowski1.9591060A. Myszewski1.741112113WSep 8 · 04:10J. Glanowski1.90711119112K. Sulkowski1.75116711133LSep 8 · 03:25K. Sulkowski2.208650A. Linek1.571111113LSep 7 · 08:10S. Brud1.50611117113K. Sulkowski2.3511641142WSep 7 · 07:20M. Zwolinski2.009912101K. Sulkowski1.70111110123LSep 7 · 05:15B. Czerwinski1.541111113K. Sulkowski2.254950
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