TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13095336
Played Sep 8Finished
Aleksander Lilien
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
3115111311911––
Artur Sobel
Away
1.70
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:43 and never touched — 57.2% is still 57.2%
Graded at full timeArtur Sobel to win
57.2%
57.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
74 points played in total.
Set by set
3115111311911––
H2H Aleksander Lilien 49–62 Artur Sobel Aleksander Lilien has won 49 of their 111 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:43What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.70 (54%)
Sobel
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
49-62 in 111
Sobel
Correct
gap of 13 in 111, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lilien 1437 vs Sobel 1521
Sobel
Correct
both rated, 84 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lilien 60% vs Sobel 40%
Lilien
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lilien 50% vs Sobel 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lilien +1 · Sobel +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Sobel) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sobel form (40%) is below what odds imply (59%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLilien 2.00 / Sobel 1.70
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Sobel)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13095336
Lilien2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 93 of 258
Down 0–1, comes back18% 26 of 145
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 91
Sobel1.70
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 176 of 320
Up 2–0, closes it92% 73 of 79
Up 1–0, closes it76% 126 of 165
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLilien4wins
AwaySobel6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSobel leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLilien50%3 of 6
AwaySobel75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lilien6Sobel4n = 10Lilien took 6 of 10
S2Lilien5Sobel5n = 10split evenly
S3Lilien4Sobel6n = 10Sobel took 6 of 10
S4Lilien3Sobel7n = 10Sobel took 7 of 10
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricLilienSobelL − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.940.3+0.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLilienSobelBasisWin rate · lifetime831 / 1540 vs 636 / 119054%53.5%831 / 1540 vs 636 / 1190Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.539.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SobelLilien 2.00/Sobel 1.70
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.3%
Sobel · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Sobel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 03:00A. Lilien—11127113A. Sobel—7101131
LAug 25 · 10:35A. Lilien—11116582A. Sobel—891111113
LAug 24 · 13:55A. Lilien—13911111A. Sobel—15116133
LAug 18 · 09:00A. Lilien—1191181A. Sobel—51113113
WAug 17 · 09:00A. Lilien—111178113A. Sobel—75111162
WJul 27 · 11:00A. Lilien—11711113A. Sobel—911561
LJul 20 · 10:35A. Lilien—611981A. Sobel—11711113
LJul 14 · 07:20A. Lilien—11911131A. Sobel—13119153
WJul 14 · 04:55A. Lilien—91111113A. Sobel—119471
LJul 7 · 06:05A. Lilien—1151461A. Sobel—91116113
A. Lilien10
WSep 8 · 08:05M. Minda1.7610670A. Lilien1.881211113LSep 8 · 07:15M. Sklensky1.201111113A. Lilien3.953670WSep 8 · 05:15B. Czerwinski1.75871481A. Lilien1.95111112113LSep 8 · 04:25S. Brud1.85101111113A. Lilien1.85129681WSep 8 · 03:00A. Sobel1.707101131A. Lilien1.9511127113LSep 7 · 24:10A. Myszewski2.401211113A. Lilien1.5110490LSep 6 · 23:45A. Lilien1.66118991A. Linek2.1071111113LSep 6 · 22:55A. Lilien1.66511961B. Sulkowski2.0511711113WSep 6 · 21:05A. Lilien1.471111113M. Trela2.453880WSep 6 · 20:05A. Wos1.63115111082A. Lilien2.10911712113
A. Sobel10
WSep 8 · 10:35A. Sobel1.431111113A. Myszewski2.505890WSep 8 · 08:30A. Sobel3.50811811113M. Sklensky1.2511411592WSep 8 · 06:50A. Sobel1.861071111113S. Brud1.8012116572LSep 8 · 05:35A. Sobel1.801011891M. Minda1.8512211113LSep 8 · 04:00A. Sobel1.80114751B. Czerwinski1.9071111113LSep 8 · 03:00A. Sobel1.707101131A. Lilien1.9511127113LSep 7 · 14:40A. Sobel1.77121112742S. Brud1.951091411113WSep 7 · 13:05A. Sobel1.1414112113M. Zwolinski4.651271181WSep 7 · 11:50A. Sobel1.901110167133M. Minda1.809121411112LSep 7 · 10:10A. Sobel1.3065111192A. Szoltysek3.15111186113
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