TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13094267
Played Sep 8Finished
Bartosz Czerwinski
Home
1.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8117111412811––
Aleksander Lilien
Away
1.95
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:02 and never touched — 58.7% is still 58.7%
Graded at full timeBartosz Czerwinski to win
58.7%
58.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
82 points played in total.
Set by set
8117111412811––
H2H Bartosz Czerwinski 9–6 Aleksander Lilien Aleksander Lilien has won 6 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:02What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.75 (53%)
Czerwinski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-6 in 15
Czerwinski
Wrong
gap of 3 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Czerwinski 1467 vs Lilien 1406
Czerwinski
Wrong
both rated, 61 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Czerwinski 40% vs Lilien 20%
Czerwinski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Czerwinski 60% vs Lilien 40%
Czerwinski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Czerwinski +1 · Lilien -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Czerwinski) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lilien form (20%) is below what odds imply (51%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCzerwinski 1.75 / Lilien 1.95
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Czerwinski)+1.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13094267
Czerwinski1.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 73 of 121
Up 2–0, closes it100% 31 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it81% 52 of 64
Lilien1.95
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 93 of 258
Down 0–1, comes back18% 26 of 145
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 91
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCzerwinski6wins
AwayLilien4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderCzerwinski leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCzerwinski100%3 of 3
AwayLilien57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Czerwinski3Lilien7n = 10Lilien took 7 of 10
S2Czerwinski6Lilien4n = 10Czerwinski took 6 of 10
S3Czerwinski7Lilien3n = 10Czerwinski took 7 of 10
S4Czerwinski5Lilien4n = 9Czerwinski took 5 of 9
S5Czerwinski3Lilien2n = 5Czerwinski took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCzerwinskiLilienC − LBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match44.143.3+0.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCzerwinskiLilienBasisWin rate · lifetime495 / 1064 vs 831 / 154146.5%53.9%495 / 1064 vs 831 / 1541Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CzerwinskiCzerwinski 1.75/Lilien 1.95
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Czerwinski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Lilien won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 25 · 13:30B. Czerwinski—681191A. Lilien—11116113
LAug 24 · 06:55B. Czerwinski—41111572A. Lilien—114611113
LJun 15 · 05:15B. Czerwinski—49111692A. Lilien—1111514113
WJun 15 · 03:00B. Czerwinski—1111113A. Lilien—7980
LJun 12 · 08:10B. Czerwinski—7111081A. Lilien—11412113
WJun 9 · 06:30B. Czerwinski—2211117133A. Lilien—2041311112
WJun 8 · 05:15B. Czerwinski—41211113A. Lilien—1110981
WJun 2 · 07:20B. Czerwinski—1151111193A. Lilien—131197172
WMay 25 · 03:00B. Czerwinski—971111133A. Lilien—111185112
WMay 20 · 07:45B. Czerwinski—11136113A. Lilien—8111171
B. Czerwinski10
LSep 9 · 06:00D. Solilo1.8581111113B. Czerwinski1.85115861LSep 9 · 04:50P. Blocho1.751161111123B. Czerwinski1.95611713102WSep 9 · 03:20B. Sulkowski2.301051181B. Czerwinski1.5512118113LSep 8 · 07:40B. Czerwinski1.85891281S. Brud1.85111110113WSep 8 · 06:25B. Czerwinski1.901121011113M. Minda1.8091112782WSep 8 · 04:00A. Sobel1.80114751B. Czerwinski1.9071111113LSep 8 · 03:20B. Czerwinski4.056770M. Sklensky1.171111113LSep 7 · 07:40B. Czerwinski1.40119871B. Wisniewski2.7541111113LSep 7 · 06:30B. Czerwinski1.86115751S. Brud1.8361111113WSep 7 · 05:15B. Czerwinski1.541111113K. Sulkowski2.254950
A. Lilien10
WSep 9 · 06:55M. Zwolinski3.3581161152A. Lilien1.27116112113LSep 9 · 06:05A. Lilien1.501111891K. Sulkowski2.4013111113WSep 9 · 04:30A. Lilien1.441111113A. Szoltysek2.509890WSep 9 · 03:50M. Lukaszewski3.30461131A. Lilien1.2711119113WSep 8 · 14:20A. Lilien1.5711119113A. Myszewski2.20851191WSep 8 · 12:40J. Glanowski1.861175111A. Lilien1.8371111133WSep 8 · 11:50S. Brud1.8098111142A. Lilien1.90111197113LSep 8 · 11:00A. Lilien1.8010911111B. Sulkowski1.9012116133LSep 8 · 09:50A. Lilien2.00351391A. Sobel1.70111111113WSep 8 · 08:05M. Minda1.7610670A. Lilien1.881211113
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