TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13093687
Played Sep 8Finished
Mateusz Trela
Home
1.66
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
6118111171191012
Bartlomiej Mrugala
Away
2.05
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:58 and never touched — 57.8% is still 57.8%
Graded at full timeMateusz Trela to win
57.8%
57.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
96 points played in total.
Set by set
6118111171191012
H2H Mateusz Trela 3–5 Bartlomiej Mrugala Mateusz Trela has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 9h before this match
Trela beat Mrugala 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:58What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.66 (55%)
Trela
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-5 in 8
Mrugala
Correct
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Trela 1376 vs Mrugala 1278
Trela
Wrong
both rated, 98 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Trela 60% vs Mrugala 80%
Mrugala
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Trela 70% vs Mrugala 50%
Trela
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Trela -1 · Mrugala +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Trela)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mrugala form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (49%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTrela 1.66 / Mrugala 2.05
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Trela)+2.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13093687
Trela1.66
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite54% won 143 of 263
Up 2–0, closes it93% 52 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it70% 95 of 135
Mrugala2.05
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 115 of 261
Down 0–1, comes back21% 27 of 132
Down 0–2, comes back6% 4 of 66
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeTrela3wins
AwayMrugala5wins
2 of 8 to a deciderMrugala leads 5–3, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTrela60%3 of 5
AwayMrugala100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Trela5Mrugala3n = 8Trela took 5 of 8
S2Trela3Mrugala5n = 8Mrugala took 5 of 8
S3Trela2Mrugala6n = 8Mrugala took 6 of 8
S4Trela2Mrugala3n = 5Mrugala took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away225%
These 8 meetings
MetricTrelaMrugalaT − MBasisWins35−2in 8 meetingsFirst set53+2of 8Avg pointsper match37.537.50.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTrelaMrugalaBasisWin rate · lifetime811 / 1656 vs 295 / 64849%45.5%811 / 1656 vs 295 / 648Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TrelaTrela 1.66/Mrugala 2.05
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.7%
Trela · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Mrugala won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 7 · 15:25M. Trela—1111113B. Mrugala—6590
WMay 14 · 13:00M. Trela—11101118113B. Mrugala—81282062
LMay 6 · 13:00M. Trela—1151151B. Mrugala—51113113
LApr 20 · 17:30M. Trela—1011811102B. Mrugala—124119123
WApr 1 · 13:00M. Trela—111110113B. Mrugala—861261
LMar 25 · 14:00M. Trela—1171081B. Mrugala—61112113
LMar 12 · 14:00M. Trela—6870B. Mrugala—1111113
LMar 5 · 11:05M. Trela—7890B. Mrugala—1111113
M. Trela10
LSep 7 · 23:20M. Trela1.86811811132W. Iwasyszyn1.83119117153WSep 7 · 21:55M. Trela1.701116113K. Golaszewski2.0081460WSep 7 · 21:30M. Trela1.95811811113J. Przewlocki1.7411811462LSep 7 · 20:30W. Iwasyszyn1.85851111113M. Trela1.8011118352WSep 7 · 19:20M. Trela1.761491110133J. Nosiadek1.901211612112WSep 7 · 18:10P. Strus2.203111181M. Trela1.6011613113WSep 7 · 16:55J. Przewlocki1.85881471M. Trela1.85111112113WSep 7 · 15:25B. Mrugala2.356590M. Trela1.511111113WSep 6 · 23:20A. Myszewski1.91815100M. Trela1.771117123LSep 6 · 22:35A. Linek1.60412811113M. Trela2.15111011842
B. Mrugala10
WSep 7 · 23:45B. Mrugala1.741112113K. Golaszewski1.9191060LSep 7 · 22:55B. Mrugala2.234111181J. Przewlocki1.5311137113WSep 7 · 21:05B. Mrugala2.0017612113W. Iwasyszyn1.7215111081WSep 7 · 19:40B. Mrugala1.831111113P. Strus1.838870WSep 7 · 18:30B. Mrugala2.2511157113J. Przewlocki1.544131171WSep 7 · 17:20B. Mrugala1.95611811113J. Nosiadek1.7411911762LSep 7 · 16:15W. Iwasyszyn1.7181111123B. Mrugala2.001138101LSep 7 · 15:25B. Mrugala2.356590M. Trela1.511111113LSep 2 · 24:10B. Mrugala1.668970K. Marchlewski2.051111113LSep 1 · 23:20B. Mrugala1.857111031J. Rolak1.8511912113
Upcoming Matches
M. Trela
Nothing scheduled
B. Mrugala
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