TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13061416
Played Sep 1Finished
Bartlomiej Mrugala
Home
1.85
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7111191012311––
Jaroslaw Rolak
Away
1.85
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:54 and never touched — 55.4% is still 55.4%
Graded at full timeJaroslaw Rolak to win
55.4%
55.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
74 points played in total.
Set by set
7111191012311––
H2H Bartlomiej Mrugala 33–30 Jaroslaw Rolak Jaroslaw Rolak has won 30 of their 63 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:54What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.85 (50%)
Rolak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
33-30 in 63
Mrugala
Wrong
gap of 3 in 63, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mrugala 1272 vs Rolak 1271
Mrugala
Wrong
both rated, 1 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mrugala 60% vs Rolak 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mrugala 70% vs Rolak 40%
Mrugala
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mrugala +2 · Rolak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Rolak) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMrugala 1.85 / Rolak 1.85
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Rolak)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13061416
Mrugala1.85
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Rolak1.85
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMrugala4wins
AwayRolak6wins
6 of 10 to a deciderRolak leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMrugala75%3 of 4
AwayRolak83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mrugala4Rolak6n = 10Rolak took 6 of 10
S2Mrugala5Rolak5n = 10split evenly
S3Mrugala1Rolak9n = 10Rolak took 9 of 10
S4Mrugala4Rolak4n = 8split evenly
S5Mrugala4Rolak2n = 6Mrugala took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMrugalaRolakM − RBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.941.3−0.4per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMrugalaRolakBasisWin rate · lifetime290 / 638 vs 669 / 145045.5%46.1%290 / 638 vs 669 / 1450Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.539.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RolakMrugala 1.85/Rolak 1.85
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Rolak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Rolak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 1 · 20:30B. Mrugala—8114101J. Rolak—11811123
WAug 31 · 22:35B. Mrugala—111176113J. Rolak—64111122
LAug 31 · 16:55B. Mrugala—66100J. Rolak—1111123
LAug 20 · 22:15B. Mrugala—10119111J. Rolak—12511133
LAug 20 · 16:55B. Mrugala—1010130J. Rolak—1212153
LJul 28 · 22:15B. Mrugala—11671172J. Rolak—611116113
WJul 28 · 18:10B. Mrugala—113118113J. Rolak—51171182
WJul 8 · 24:35B. Mrugala—911911113J. Rolak—11711582
WJul 7 · 22:10B. Mrugala—117811113J. Rolak—61111882
LJul 7 · 15:25B. Mrugala—81291192J. Rolak—1110117113
B. Mrugala10
LSep 2 · 24:10B. Mrugala1.668970K. Marchlewski2.051111113WSep 1 · 21:55B. Mrugala1.901311511113B. Wisniewski1.8015711692WSep 1 · 21:30B. Mrugala1.911111113W. Gluszek1.803680LSep 1 · 20:30B. Mrugala1.908114101J. Rolak1.8011811123LSep 1 · 18:55B. Mrugala2.2011791132D. Szlubowski1.57711119113WSep 1 · 17:45B. Mrugala2.1011118113W. Gluszek1.63681141LSep 1 · 16:15B. Mrugala1.95891281B. Wisniewski1.70111110113WSep 1 · 15:00B. Mrugala1.5871111133K. Marchlewski2.181139111WSep 1 · 24:35B. Mrugala2.171111113M. Piecowski1.597880WAug 31 · 23:45M. Piecowski1.9811116972B. Mrugala1.73991111113
J. Rolak10
WSep 5 · 13:55J. Rolak1.591111113W. Suchecki2.176750LSep 5 · 12:40J. Rolak1.80961181A. Szoltysek1.9011118113LSep 5 · 11:25J. Rolak1.6011115882W. Iwasyszyn2.20951111113WSep 5 · 10:10T. Piotrowski1.60119631J. Rolak2.2071111113WSep 5 · 09:25J. Rolak1.90111111113M. Zwolinski1.75613441WSep 5 · 08:35W. Suchecki2.2022110J. Rolak1.601111133WSep 5 · 07:20J. Rolak1.8011119113A. Szoltysek1.85471181LSep 5 · 06:05M. Zwolinski1.84101112113J. Rolak1.831291051LSep 5 · 04:55T. Piotrowski1.571111113J. Rolak2.213780WSep 1 · 20:30B. Mrugala1.908114101J. Rolak1.8011811123
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