TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13055813
Played Sep 1Finished
Bartlomiej Mrugala
Home
2.17
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117118118––––
Milosz Piecowski
Away
1.59
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:16 and never touched — 54.6% is still 54.6%
Graded at full timeMilosz Piecowski to win
54.6%
54.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
56 points played in total.
Set by set
117118118––––
H2H Bartlomiej Mrugala 3–1 Milosz Piecowski Milosz Piecowski has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:16What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.59 (58%)
Piecowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Mrugala
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mrugala 1256 vs Piecowski 1354
Piecowski
Wrong
both rated, 98 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mrugala 60% vs Piecowski 40%
Mrugala
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mrugala 40% vs Piecowski 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mrugala +2 · Piecowski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Piecowski) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Piecowski form (40%) is below what odds imply (63%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMrugala 2.17 / Piecowski 1.59
Signal prob.40% / 61%
Edge (Piecowski)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13055813
Mrugala2.17
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 116 of 265
Down 0–1, comes back21% 28 of 136
Down 0–2, comes back6% 4 of 69
Piecowski1.59
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite57% won 146 of 255
Up 2–0, closes it93% 37 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it75% 87 of 116
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeMrugala3wins
AwayPiecowski1wins
1 of 4 to a deciderMrugala leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMrugala75%3 of 4
AwayPiecowskin = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mrugala4Piecowski0n = 4Mrugala took 4 of 4
S2Mrugala2Piecowski2n = 4split evenly
S3Mrugala2Piecowski2n = 4split evenly
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home250%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricMrugalaPiecowskiM − PBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set40+4of 4Avg pointsper match38.233.8+4.4per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMrugalaPiecowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime286 / 631 vs 866 / 174945.3%49.5%286 / 631 vs 866 / 1749Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PiecowskiMrugala 2.17/Piecowski 1.59
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.5%
Piecowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Mrugala won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 1 · 24:35B. Mrugala—1111113M. Piecowski—7880
WAug 31 · 18:30B. Mrugala—1111811113M. Piecowski—91311692
WJun 5 · 17:05B. Mrugala—1111113M. Piecowski—8880
LJan 16 · 20:50B. Mrugala—119781M. Piecowski—71111113
B. Mrugala10
LSep 2 · 24:10B. Mrugala1.668970K. Marchlewski2.051111113LSep 1 · 23:20B. Mrugala1.857111031J. Rolak1.8511912113WSep 1 · 21:55B. Mrugala1.901311511113B. Wisniewski1.8015711692WSep 1 · 21:30B. Mrugala1.911111113W. Gluszek1.803680LSep 1 · 20:30B. Mrugala1.908114101J. Rolak1.8011811123LSep 1 · 18:55B. Mrugala2.2011791132D. Szlubowski1.57711119113WSep 1 · 17:45B. Mrugala2.1011118113W. Gluszek1.63681141LSep 1 · 16:15B. Mrugala1.95891281B. Wisniewski1.70111110113WSep 1 · 15:00B. Mrugala1.5871111133K. Marchlewski2.181139111WAug 31 · 23:45M. Piecowski1.9811116972B. Mrugala1.73991111113
M. Piecowski10
WSep 3 · 24:10M. Piecowski1.34111578113M. Piecowski2.90713111192WSep 2 · 23:20M. Piecowski1.831114113M. Kowalczyk1.8691270WSep 2 · 21:55M. Piecowski1.8511911113K. Marchlewski1.80711991LSep 2 · 21:30M. Piecowski1.6071110101W. Gluszek2.1011912123WSep 2 · 20:30M. Piecowski1.86111011113M. Kowalczyk1.83912691WSep 2 · 18:55M. Piecowski1.8571111123P. Strus1.851179101WSep 2 · 17:45M. Piecowski1.55101211123W. Gluszek2.2512108101WSep 2 · 16:15M. Piecowski1.831110118113K. Marchlewski1.8681241172LSep 2 · 15:00M. Piecowski1.471112991M. Piecowski2.45131011113LAug 31 · 22:55M. Piecowski2.558111110113M. Piecowski1.4511571282
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