TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13061412
Played Sep 2Finished
Bartlomiej Mrugala
Home
1.66
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811911711––––
Kacper Marchlewski
Away
2.05
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:55 and never touched — 55.4% is still 55.4%
Graded at full timeBartlomiej Mrugala to win
55.4%
55.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
57 points played in total.
Set by set
811911711––––
H2H Bartlomiej Mrugala 6–3 Kacper Marchlewski Kacper Marchlewski has won 3 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:55What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.66 (55%)
Mrugala
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-3 in 9
Mrugala
Wrong
gap of 3 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mrugala 1260 vs Marchlewski 1210
Mrugala
Wrong
both rated, 50 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mrugala 40% vs Marchlewski 80%
Marchlewski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mrugala 60% vs Marchlewski 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mrugala -1 · Marchlewski +4
Marchlewski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Mrugala) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marchlewski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (49%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMrugala 1.66 / Marchlewski 2.05
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Mrugala)+2.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13061412
Mrugala1.66
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite50% won 66 of 133
Up 2–0, closes it96% 24 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it77% 44 of 57
Marchlewski2.05
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog34% won 36 of 107
Down 0–1, comes back11% 6 of 55
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeMrugala6wins
AwayMarchlewski3wins
4 of 9 to a deciderMrugala leads 6–3, and 4 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMrugala100%3 of 3
AwayMarchlewski60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mrugala3Marchlewski5n = 8Marchlewski took 5 of 8
S2Mrugala4Marchlewski4n = 8split evenly
S3Mrugala5Marchlewski3n = 8Mrugala took 5 of 8
S4Mrugala4Marchlewski3n = 7Mrugala took 4 of 7
S5Mrugala2Marchlewski1n = 3Mrugala took 2 of 3
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home333%
3–2Decider, home333%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricMrugalaMarchlewskiMrugala − MarchlewskiBasisWins63+3in 9 meetingsFirst set35−2of 8Avg pointsper match43.840.1+3.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMrugalaMarchlewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime290 / 639 vs 140 / 31745.4%44.2%290 / 639 vs 140 / 317Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.536.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MrugalaMrugala 1.66/Marchlewski 2.05
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.3%
Mrugala · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Marchlewski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 1 · 15:00B. Mrugala—71111133K. Marchlewski—1139111
WJul 28 · 22:55B. Mrugala—111114113K. Marchlewski—851681
LJul 28 · 24:10B. Mrugala—7911111K. Marchlewski—11116133
WJul 27 · 20:30B. Mrugala—111289113K. Marchlewski—810111162
WMar 22 · 17:55B. Mrugala—791411113K. Marchlewski—111112962
LMar 22 · 24:20B. Mrugala—118130K. Marchlewski—1311153
WMar 21 · 22:00B. Mrugala—11811113K. Marchlewski—611551
LMar 21 · 18:45B. Mrugala—91111792K. Marchlewski—119611113
B. Mrugala10
LSep 1 · 23:20B. Mrugala1.857111031J. Rolak1.8511912113WSep 1 · 21:55B. Mrugala1.901311511113B. Wisniewski1.8015711692WSep 1 · 21:30B. Mrugala1.911111113W. Gluszek1.803680LSep 1 · 20:30B. Mrugala1.908114101J. Rolak1.8011811123LSep 1 · 18:55B. Mrugala2.2011791132D. Szlubowski1.57711119113WSep 1 · 17:45B. Mrugala2.1011118113W. Gluszek1.63681141LSep 1 · 16:15B. Mrugala1.95891281B. Wisniewski1.70111110113WSep 1 · 15:00B. Mrugala1.5871111133K. Marchlewski2.181139111WSep 1 · 24:35B. Mrugala2.171111113M. Piecowski1.597880WAug 31 · 23:45M. Piecowski1.9811116972B. Mrugala1.73991111113
K. Marchlewski10
WSep 3 · 24:35K. Marchlewski2.001111113W. Gluszek1.718980WSep 2 · 23:45M. Piecowski1.83611591K. Marchlewski1.8611411113LSep 2 · 22:35K. Marchlewski1.8512940M. Kowalczyk1.801411113LSep 2 · 21:55M. Piecowski1.8511911113K. Marchlewski1.80711991WSep 2 · 19:40K. Marchlewski2.001111113P. Strus1.735670LSep 2 · 18:30K. Marchlewski2.24811881W. Gluszek1.5511911113WSep 2 · 17:20K. Marchlewski1.71117118113M. Piecowski1.9841191182LSep 2 · 16:15M. Piecowski1.831110118113K. Marchlewski1.8681241172LSep 2 · 15:25K. Marchlewski1.802950M. Kowalczyk1.901111113LSep 1 · 15:00B. Mrugala1.5871111133K. Marchlewski2.181139111
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