TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13066407
Played Sep 2Finished
Kacper Marchlewski
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115116117––––
Piotr Strus
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:30 and never touched — 65.4% is still 65.4%
Graded at full timePiotr Strus to win
65.4%
65.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
51 points played in total.
Set by set
115116117––––
H2H Kacper Marchlewski 1–6 Piotr Strus Kacper Marchlewski has won 1 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:30What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Strus
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-6 in 7
Strus
Wrong
gap of 5 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marchlewski 1208 vs Strus 1189
Marchlewski
Correct
both rated, 19 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marchlewski 40% vs Strus 20%
Marchlewski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marchlewski 60% vs Strus 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Marchlewski -1 · Strus -4
Strus
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Strus) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Strus form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarchlewski 2.00 / Strus 1.73
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Strus)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13066407
Marchlewski2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 41 of 115
Down 0–1, comes back12% 7 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 30
Strus1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite42% won 44 of 104
Up 2–0, closes it86% 19 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it71% 31 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeMarchlewski1wins
AwayStrus6wins
1 of 7 to a deciderStrus leads 6–1, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarchlewskin = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayStrus100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marchlewski1Strus6n = 7Strus took 6 of 7
S2Marchlewski1Strus6n = 7Strus took 6 of 7
S3Marchlewski2Strus5n = 7Strus took 5 of 7
S4Marchlewski1Strus3n = 4Strus took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away343%
0–3Straight, away343%
These 7 meetings
MetricMarchlewskiStrusM − SBasisWins16−5in 7 meetingsFirst set16−5of 7Avg pointsper match32.138.9−6.8per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarchlewskiStrusBasisWin rate · lifetime142 / 322 vs 383 / 84344.1%45.4%142 / 322 vs 383 / 843Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.637.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StrusMarchlewski 2.00/Strus 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.8%
Strus · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Marchlewski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LAug 5 · 18:10K. Marchlewski—10690P. Strus—1211113
LJul 17 · 15:50K. Marchlewski—941141P. Strus—11116113
LJun 12 · 16:45K. Marchlewski—7118111P. Strus—11911133
LNov 22 · 07:05K. Marchlewski—13470P. Strus—1511113
LAug 30 · 09:45K. Marchlewski—98110P. Strus—1111133
LJul 26 · 05:15K. Marchlewski—1291181P. Strus—14115113
WApr 20 · 11:50K. Marchlewski—117311113P. Strus—71111672
K. Marchlewski10
WSep 3 · 24:35K. Marchlewski2.001111113W. Gluszek1.718980WSep 2 · 23:45M. Piecowski1.83611591K. Marchlewski1.8611411113LSep 2 · 22:35K. Marchlewski1.8512940M. Kowalczyk1.801411113LSep 2 · 21:55M. Piecowski1.8511911113K. Marchlewski1.80711991LSep 2 · 18:30K. Marchlewski2.24811881W. Gluszek1.5511911113WSep 2 · 17:20K. Marchlewski1.71117118113M. Piecowski1.9841191182LSep 2 · 16:15M. Piecowski1.831110118113K. Marchlewski1.8681241172LSep 2 · 15:25K. Marchlewski1.802950M. Kowalczyk1.901111113WSep 2 · 24:10B. Mrugala1.668970K. Marchlewski2.051111113WSep 1 · 23:45K. Marchlewski2.001311113B. Wisniewski1.7111890
P. Strus10
WSep 4 · 19:40D. Poloszczanski1.651211411112P. Strus2.07143117133WSep 4 · 18:55D. Kotwica1.47119741P. Strus2.5081111113WSep 4 · 18:10P. Strus1.908111016113K. Golaszewski1.80118121482WSep 4 · 16:35P. Strus2.0591411133S. Wnek1.6511128111WSep 4 · 15:50D. Szlubowski1.27841171P. Strus3.3011116113LSep 2 · 18:55M. Piecowski1.8571111123P. Strus1.851179101LSep 2 · 18:10P. Strus1.809590M. Kowalczyk1.851111113LSep 2 · 16:35P. Strus1.6761114452M. Piecowski2.031191211113LSep 2 · 15:50W. Gluszek1.65111184113P. Strus2.0799111172WAug 31 · 19:40M. Piecowski1.9511146752P. Strus1.769121111113
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