TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13067127
Played Sep 2Finished
Milosz Piecowski
Home
1.85
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117911119119––
Kacper Marchlewski
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:30 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMilosz Piecowski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
78 points played in total.
Set by set
117911119119––
H2H Milosz Piecowski 6–5 Kacper Marchlewski Kacper Marchlewski has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:30What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Marchlewski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-5 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Piecowski 1354 vs Marchlewski 1221
Piecowski
Correct
both rated, 133 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Piecowski 80% vs Marchlewski 40%
Piecowski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Piecowski 60% vs Marchlewski 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Piecowski -1 · Marchlewski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Piecowski)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marchlewski form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPiecowski 1.85 / Marchlewski 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Piecowski)+4.7pp
TT Elite Series · #13067127
Piecowski1.85
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog40% won 150 of 371
Down 0–1, comes back25% 57 of 231
Down 0–2, comes back6% 8 of 125
Marchlewski1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite46% won 36 of 78
Up 2–0, closes it83% 20 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it64% 30 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePiecowski6wins
AwayMarchlewski4wins
7 of 10 to a deciderPiecowski leads 6–4, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePiecowski100%5 of 5
AwayMarchlewski80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Piecowski5Marchlewski5n = 10split evenly
S2Piecowski3Marchlewski7n = 10Marchlewski took 7 of 10
S3Piecowski6Marchlewski4n = 10Piecowski took 6 of 10
S4Piecowski6Marchlewski3n = 9Piecowski took 6 of 9
S5Piecowski4Marchlewski3n = 7Piecowski took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPiecowskiMarchlewskiP − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match43.142.8+0.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPiecowskiMarchlewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime860 / 1743 vs 143 / 32349.3%44.3%860 / 1743 vs 143 / 323Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.136.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PiecowskiPiecowski 1.85/Marchlewski 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Piecowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Piecowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 2 · 16:15M. Piecowski—1110118113K. Marchlewski—81241172
WAug 30 · 09:00M. Piecowski—129711113K. Marchlewski—101111752
WAug 30 · 08:10M. Piecowski—12811113K. Marchlewski—1011781
WAug 6 · 21:30M. Piecowski—8131110123K. Marchlewski—1111812102
LAug 6 · 17:45M. Piecowski—6111111102K. Marchlewski—111376123
WJul 19 · 01:00M. Piecowski—11811113K. Marchlewski—711161
LJul 18 · 22:35M. Piecowski—61141182K. Marchlewski—116119113
LJul 18 · 20:30M. Piecowski—6860K. Marchlewski—1111113
LJun 14 · 14:40M. Piecowski—31191262K. Marchlewski—1171110113
WApr 19 · 18:35M. Piecowski—114116113K. Marchlewski—91191192
M. Piecowski10
WSep 3 · 24:10M. Piecowski1.34111578113M. Piecowski2.90713111192WSep 2 · 23:20M. Piecowski1.831114113M. Kowalczyk1.8691270LSep 2 · 21:30M. Piecowski1.6071110101W. Gluszek2.1011912123WSep 2 · 20:30M. Piecowski1.86111011113M. Kowalczyk1.83912691WSep 2 · 18:55M. Piecowski1.8571111123P. Strus1.851179101WSep 2 · 17:45M. Piecowski1.55101211123W. Gluszek2.2512108101WSep 2 · 16:15M. Piecowski1.831110118113K. Marchlewski1.8681241172LSep 2 · 15:00M. Piecowski1.471112991M. Piecowski2.45131011113LSep 1 · 24:35B. Mrugala2.171111113M. Piecowski1.597880LAug 31 · 22:55M. Piecowski2.558111110113M. Piecowski1.4511571282
K. Marchlewski10
WSep 3 · 24:35K. Marchlewski2.001111113W. Gluszek1.718980WSep 2 · 23:45M. Piecowski1.83611591K. Marchlewski1.8611411113LSep 2 · 22:35K. Marchlewski1.8512940M. Kowalczyk1.801411113WSep 2 · 19:40K. Marchlewski2.001111113P. Strus1.735670LSep 2 · 18:30K. Marchlewski2.24811881W. Gluszek1.5511911113WSep 2 · 17:20K. Marchlewski1.71117118113M. Piecowski1.9841191182LSep 2 · 16:15M. Piecowski1.831110118113K. Marchlewski1.8681241172LSep 2 · 15:25K. Marchlewski1.802950M. Kowalczyk1.901111113WSep 2 · 24:10B. Mrugala1.668970K. Marchlewski2.051111113WSep 1 · 23:45K. Marchlewski2.001311113B. Wisniewski1.7111890
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