TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13062053
Played Sep 2Finished
Kacper Marchlewski
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 5
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
211911511––––
Marcin Kowalczyk
Away
1.90
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:03 and never touched — 60.2% is still 60.2%
Graded at full timeKacper Marchlewski to win
60.2%
60.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
49 points played in total.
Set by set
211911511––––
H2H Kacper Marchlewski 11–7 Marcin Kowalczyk Marcin Kowalczyk has won 7 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 02:03What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Marchlewski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-7 in 18
Marchlewski
Wrong
gap of 4 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marchlewski 1226 vs Kowalczyk 1255
Kowalczyk
Correct
both rated, 28 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marchlewski 100% vs Kowalczyk 40%
Marchlewski
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marchlewski 60% vs Kowalczyk 40%
Marchlewski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Marchlewski +5 · Kowalczyk -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kowalczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 40% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kowalczyk form (40%) is below what odds imply (53%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarchlewski 1.80 / Kowalczyk 1.90
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kowalczyk)+5.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13062053
Marchlewski1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite46% won 36 of 78
Up 2–0, closes it83% 20 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it64% 30 of 47
Kowalczyk1.90
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 168 of 390
Down 0–1, comes back22% 42 of 195
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 91
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarchlewski4wins
AwayKowalczyk6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKowalczyk leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarchlewski60%3 of 5
AwayKowalczyk80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marchlewski5Kowalczyk5n = 10split evenly
S2Marchlewski6Kowalczyk4n = 10Marchlewski took 6 of 10
S3Marchlewski4Kowalczyk6n = 10Kowalczyk took 6 of 10
S4Marchlewski3Kowalczyk3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMarchlewskiKowalczykM − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match32.835.4−2.6per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarchlewskiKowalczykBasisWin rate · lifetime141 / 318 vs 728 / 149744.3%48.6%141 / 318 vs 728 / 1497Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.636.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KowalczykMarchlewski 1.80/Kowalczyk 1.90
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kowalczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kowalczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 6 · 16:15K. Marchlewski—115551M. Kowalczyk—41111113
LAug 5 · 15:25K. Marchlewski—7470M. Kowalczyk—1111113
LJul 29 · 17:20K. Marchlewski—811871M. Kowalczyk—11911113
LJul 29 · 24:10K. Marchlewski—11117392M. Kowalczyk—871111113
WJul 28 · 17:20K. Marchlewski—1111113M. Kowalczyk—7790
LJul 27 · 16:15K. Marchlewski—21161132M. Kowalczyk—116118113
LJul 17 · 18:30K. Marchlewski—6960M. Kowalczyk—1111113
WSep 27 · 01:35K. Marchlewski—1111103M. Kowalczyk—8770
WSep 26 · 23:05K. Marchlewski—111111113M. Kowalczyk—138491
WSep 26 · 17:55K. Marchlewski—111311113M. Kowalczyk—915381
K. Marchlewski10
WSep 3 · 24:35K. Marchlewski2.001111113W. Gluszek1.718980WSep 2 · 23:45M. Piecowski1.83611591K. Marchlewski1.8611411113LSep 2 · 22:35K. Marchlewski1.8512940M. Kowalczyk1.801411113LSep 2 · 21:55M. Piecowski1.8511911113K. Marchlewski1.80711991WSep 2 · 19:40K. Marchlewski2.001111113P. Strus1.735670LSep 2 · 18:30K. Marchlewski2.24811881W. Gluszek1.5511911113WSep 2 · 17:20K. Marchlewski1.71117118113M. Piecowski1.9841191182LSep 2 · 16:15M. Piecowski1.831110118113K. Marchlewski1.8681241172WSep 2 · 24:10B. Mrugala1.668970K. Marchlewski2.051111113WSep 1 · 23:45K. Marchlewski2.001311113B. Wisniewski1.7111890
M. Kowalczyk10
WSep 3 · 19:40M. Kowalczyk1.54811116113K. Golaszewski2.3511981192WSep 3 · 18:30M. Kowalczyk1.86111159113K. Sulkowski1.8084111192WSep 3 · 17:20M. Kowalczyk1.751111113W. Gluszek1.904460WSep 3 · 16:15M. Trela1.6531011121M. Kowalczyk2.0611124143LSep 3 · 15:25M. Kowalczyk2.5591141182J. Rolak1.44117118113LSep 2 · 23:20M. Piecowski1.831114113M. Kowalczyk1.8691270WSep 2 · 22:35K. Marchlewski1.8512940M. Kowalczyk1.801411113WSep 2 · 22:15M. Kowalczyk1.66118311113W. Gluszek2.0561111482LSep 2 · 21:05M. Piecowski1.9081111113M. Kowalczyk1.75119861LSep 2 · 20:30M. Piecowski1.86111011113M. Kowalczyk1.83912691
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